Liverpool v Villarreal tips: Champions League best bets and preview
Liverpool's bid for an unprecedented quadruple continues on Wednesday, as they host Villarreal in the Champions League semi-final. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pt Under 40 booking points at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pts Both Teams to Score at 11/10 (SBK)
Liverpool were 3000/1 with Sky Bet to win the quadruple this season. We are now at the end of April and the dream is very much alive - just one point behind Manchester City in the league, into the final of the FA Cup and the semi-final of the Champions League.
They look imperious and unstoppable right now, and will be looking to take a decent first-leg lead to Spain for their tie with Villarreal.
Anfield has been a fortress all season long in every competition. In the Champions League, the Reds have averaged 2.14 xGF and 0.80 xGA per home game - a stellar process that, if matched here, should see them win this game.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Liverpool 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Villarreal 10/1
Villarreal will be no pushovers though, having already seen off Juventus and Bayern Munich to get to this stage, dealing with the German champions brilliantly in limiting their attack (two-leg xG: VIL 2.31 - 2.83 BMU).
It was evident with the eye-test that the Yellow Submarine were playing deep in an attempt to frustrate Bayern, which meant the Bavarians resulted in trying their luck from distance, shown by the fact that their xG per shot over two legs was a lowly 0.06.
Expect a similar approach in this game, and certainly this leg, with the aim of the Spanish side to still be in the contest ahead of the second leg at La Ceramica.
However, this Liverpool team have more attacking tools than Bayern when it comes to unpicking a deep-lying block, as shown at the weekend against Everton, so I am not expecting the Reds to struggle quite as much as the Germans did.
What we did see in the Merseyside derby, though, was a game plan from the Toffees to try to breach Liverpool's high line, and in particular, exploit the space behind Trent Alexander-Arnold on the counter attack, something Anthony Gordon did particularly well.
Villarreal are a much better counter-attacking side than Everton, and will take advantage of that potential weakness much better than the relegation-threatened club, so will fancy their chances of notching at Anfield, just as AC Milan (twice) Inter Milan (once) and Benfica (three times) have in this competition so far.
And let's be fair to Unai Emery's side, they have been excellent in attack throughout the Champions League so far, averaging an impressive 1.91 xGF per game, so BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE looks a real runner at an odds-against price.
It is a bet that has copped in 60% of both Liverpool's and Villarreal's UCL games this season, and in 80% of the Spanish sides away UCL games.
Another bet I like the look of is in the cards market, with a rather more lenient referee overseeing this game compared to Tuesday's semi-final.
Szymon Marciniak is the man in the middle, and he has brandished an average of 4.2 cards per game across all competitions this term, though his average drops to 3.4 when overseeing Champions League matches this term.
Only twice has he gone mad - dishing eight cards in Chelsea's quarter-final second leg match against Real Madrid and seven in Manchester United's 3-2 win over Atalanta in the group stage - with his other five games seeing three or fewer.
He has overseen two of Liverpool's Champions League games this season, showing three (v AC Milan in group stage) and zero (v Inter Milan in last 16 1st leg), which means the 10/11 available for UNDER 40 BOOKING POINTS looks a solid bet.
Couple a strict ref with two teams who have kept it fairly clean in this competition - Liverpool's matches having averaged 2.9 cards per game, Villarreal's 3.4 - and it looks worth siding with a low card count on Wednesday.
The same bet is as short as 4/6 in places, and generally 5/6, so the 10/11 offers us a solid value bet.
Liverpool v Villarreal best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pt Under 40 booking points at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
- 1pts Both Teams to Score at 11/10 (SBK)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Villarreal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (22/04/22)
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