Liverpool v Real Madrid tips: Champions League best bets and preview
Last season's finalists, Liverpool and Real Madrid, do battle in the first leg of their Champions League tie on Tuesday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Real Madrid to win Draw No Bet at 6/5 (General)
1pt Vinicius Junior to be carded at 7/2 (Unibet)
0.5pt Vinicius Junior to score and be carded at 16/1 (Unibet)
Two titans of European football go head-to-head in the last 16 of the Champions League, with last season's finalists, Liverpool and Real Madrid, dueling it out once again.
There appears to be a bit of 'Liverpool are back' hype going around, and while they have looked a whole lot better in their last two Premier League outings, I'm not ready to jump on that bandwagon.
They were efficient against Everton yet still looked vulnerable defensively when winning 2-0, and they never looked in control against Newcastle when two up and playing against 10-men.
In years gone by the Reds would have cruised to a comfortable win without being threatened at all, but Jurgen Klopp's side lack the control currently to win in that manner. That lack of control is a problem ahead of this game, especially as they face a wily, smart and experienced Real Madrid side.
It is widely thought that Real are having issues this season, yet they are on pace to rack up more points than they did last season when they won the La Liga title.
Since the restart, they have impressed on the data front, averaging 2.33 xGF and 0.84 xGA per game in La Liga, and despite losing two of their five away games, their underlying metrics are still hugely in the positive (2.12 xGF, 1.06 xGA per game).
They remain a team to be feared, with a great balance in their XI, and with Karim Benzema in contention to return, I give them a great chance of getting a result at Anfield.
The Reds have looked defensively vulnerable for some time, allowing 1.82 xGA per game post-World Cup, so Real should get chances, meaning the odds-against available for REAL MADRID TO WIN DRAW NO BET appeals.
Taking this avenue rather than a straight away win means that if the game ends all square we get our money back, which appeals given that I believe Madrid are too big of a price here.
The fact Madrid are trending in a very positive direction in defence is a huge plus in this game, as we could see the hosts limited in front of goal.
The match-winner in last season's final, VINICIUS JUNIOR, could well have a say again here given his favourable match-up against Trent Alexander-Arnold, but the angle the appeals most around the Brazilian is for him TO BE CARDED.
Vinicius is well known for his attacking ability, but of late he has found himself in the referee's book incredibly regularly.
Across Madrid's last seven games in La Liga and the Copa del Rey, Vinicius has been booked on five occasions!
He is a fiery character who gets targeted by opponents, and has averaged 1.8 fouls per 95 minutes in La Liga this season, so with a good refereeing appointment (István Kovács) who has averaged 5 cards per game in the UCL this term, the 7/2 looks on the large side for a player with such a recent record.
As a longshot, combining a VINICIUS CARD with an ANYTIME GOAL appeals at 16/1.
He has only scored once in seven La Liga outings since the restart, but the Brazilian is continuously getting himself in good scoring positions, shown by the fact he has averaged 0.47 xG/95.
The goals will come if he continues to hit that kind of rate, as they did last season when he finished with 17 goals in La Liga and four in the UCL - including the winner in the final.
He has had plenty of joy in this season's Champions League, netting four times in six appearances, with his xG/95 average across the UCL group stage a whopping 1.20!
I doubt he will get THAT many chances here, but Liverpool are a porous defensive side and Vini plays down the left against arguably their weakest defensive link, so we should see him get a few opportunities at least.
Liverpool v Real Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Real Madrid to win Draw No Bet at 6/5 (General)
- 1pt Vinicius Junior to be carded at 7/2 (Unibet)
- 0.5pt Vinicius Junior to score and be carded at 16/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 0-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1530 GMT (20/02/23)
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