Champions League odds and betting tips: Who to back in last 16
Jake Osgathorpe uses Infogol's xG model to assess the Champions League knockout stage, picking out some best bets in the 'to qualify' market.
Using Infogol's xG model and probabilities, this article will aim to provide a verdict for who will progress to the quarter finals and advise any value bets based on the prices available.
- 'To qualify odds' are in brackets next to team names and via Sky Bet
Champions League betting tips: Last 16
0.5pt RB Leipzig to qualify v Man City at 5/1 (Boylesports)
Already advised:
5pts Benfica and Napoli to both qualify at 9/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
3pts Real Madrid to qualify v Liverpool at 10/11 (Boylesports)
2pts AC Milan to qualify v Tottenham at 6/5 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt PSG to qualify v Bayern Munich at 6/4 (bet365)
We had plenty of success at this stage last season, tipping Villarreal to qualify against Juventus at 7/4 and Benfica to get past Ajax at 3/1, with only a notorious, late PSG collapse against eventual champions Real Madrid denying us a full house.
We have had a longer wait than usual from the draw to the first knockout round because of the mid-season World Cup, and a lot has changed since the round-of-16 line-up was decided, but the aim of this column remains the same - identify some value bets.
Inter Milan (8/13) v Porto (6/5)
- First leg - Wednesday, February 22
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 14
Inter are strongly fancied to progress past Porto, though there is little value in backing either in the 'to qualify' market.
It may be tighter than what many think, with the Portuguese side having taken a few scalps in recent years, including Inter's rivals Juventus in 20/21.
It shouldn't be forgotten that Porto actually topped a group containing Bruges, Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid, so shouldn't be underestimated.
The market has Inter at a best price of 4/6 (60%) while Infogol makes them 7/10 (59%). Porto have a 41% (29/20) chance of advancing based on the model, meaning their 11/8 (42%) price doesn't represent value.
Selection - No bet
RB Leipzig (4/1) v Manchester City (1/7)
- First leg - Wednesday, February 22
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 14
These two sides met in the group stage last season, and both games were entertaining. City won 6-3 at The Etihad and RB Leipzig won 2-1 in Germany, though the second clash was a dead-rubber for both.
Leipzig have been steady since the restart, and qualified through a fairly easy group to get to this stage, but their attacking process - which needs to be good to challenge City - has stalled of late. They have failed to register at least 1.0 xGF in three of their five Bundesliga games post-World Cup.
City are the favourites (again) to win the whole thing, but they haven't been firing on all cylinders, particularly away from home, so the 1/5 on offer for Pep Guardiola's side looks a tad too short.
Leipzig are likely to welcome back Christopher Nkunku from injury ahead of the first leg, which will be a huge boost for the Germans, as City couldn't deal with him last season - he bagged a hat-trick at the Etihad - and while they are a big price, the value does lie with Leipzig.
The model gives them a 19% (4.33/1) chance of advancing, meaning the 5/1 (17%) on offer does represent a small slice of value.
Selection - RB Leipzig to qualify
Frankfurt (2/1) v Napoli (4/11)
- First leg - Tuesday, February 21
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 15
Napoli have been one of the best teams in Europe this season.
Of their 27 matches across Serie A and Champions League competitions, Luciano Spalletti's side have won 23 and lost just twice, averaging 2.23 xGF and 1.02 xGA per game.
While Frankfurt deserve some respect as Europa League champions, I think there is a bigger gulf between these two sides than the odds suggest.
We can back Napoli to progress at a best price of 40/85 (68%), which represents value according to the model, giving them a 74% (1/3) chance of prevailing. Combined with Benfica in a 9/10 (53%) double, they represent excellent value, with the model suggesting it ought to be closer to 13/20 (61%).
Selection - Napoli to qualify
The market has this as one of the closest ties of the round, with Sky Bet making this re-run of last season's final a pick'em.
Neither Liverpool nor Real Madrid have looked fantastic since the restart, but Jurgen Klopp's men have performed much worse than the holders.
The Reds have performed like a relegation-threatened team since the Premier League restart, winning three and losing five of 10 matches while averaging 1.37 xGF and 1.99 xGA per game.
That should give the Spaniards plenty of confidence, and see them rack up plenty of chances over two legs.
The model makes REAL MADRID TO QUALIFY a value price, calculating Carlo Ancelotti's side have a 54% (17/20) chance of advancing.
So, at a best price of 9/10 (53%), Los Blancos look a good bet to get the better of Liverpool yet again.
Selection - Real Madrid to qualify
These two sides were both in decent form when the draw was made. Not so much now.
AC Milan have won just two of their seven Serie A games since the restart, while Spurs have won just three of eight Premier League games post-World Cup.
That makes this tie even harder to call, but the model suggests it's the Italians champions that represent value.
Available at a best price of 6/5 - an implied probability of 46% - AC MILAN TO QUALIFY makes plenty of appeal, Infogol suggesting they in fact have a 49% (21/20) chance of progressing.
The way in which Spurs have travelled this season has to be of concern over a two-legged affair, with Tottenham winning just six of 15 road games across Premier League and UCL matches - averaging 1.39 xGF and 1.48 xGA per game.
Selection - AC Milan to qualify
PSG (11/8) v Bayern Munich (8/15)
- First leg - Tuesday, February 14
- Second leg - Wednesday, March 8
I was expecting this one to be short, and in favour of Bayern Munich, but the model has different ideas.
It makes Bayern 57% favourites to progress, meaning Les Parisiens are a value play at 6/4 (40%) to advance, with Infogol making them a 13/10 (43%) chance.
Reports are positive that PSG trio Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Marco Veratti could be fit for the first leg, and any team with the firepower of the French champions has to be respected.
Defensively they are questionable having conceded in seven of eight Ligue 1 matches, but then so are Bayern, who have conceded in four of their five Bundesliga matches since the restart.
The prices to qualify probably should be closer than they currently are, so making a small play on PSG TO QUALIFY appeals.
Both sides have the capability to score in bucket-loads, meaning we should see an entertaining two-legged affair.
Selection - PSG to qualify
Club Brugge (11/4) v Benfica (1/4)
- First leg - Wednesday, February 15
- Second leg - Tuesday, March 7
If you like short things, then Benfica are for you.
Club Brugge were fortunate to advance based on underlying numbers, averaging 1.08 xGF and 1.97 xGA per game, while Benfica topped their group ahead of PSG and Juventus - and rightly so according to the data.
They have lost Enzo Fernandez since, but the Portuguese league leaders' squad is deep enough for that to not be a problem in this tie.
Águias can be backed at a best price of 1/3 (75%), which is a value bet according to the model, which gives Roger Schmidt's side an 83% (1/5) favourite.
Despite being value, they are too short to back as a single in this column, so I'll be combining them with Napoli, another short-priced value side.
Selection - Benfica to qualify
I think this one is going to be more closely contested than the market, and model, suggest.
Both have Chelsea as strong favourites, but I'm not so sure that should be the case. The Blues have looked stunted in attack of late, netting just six times in eight league games since the restart.
They look an opposable favourite in this tie, but the model has Dortmund's chances exactly where the bookies do - at 38% (13/8).
A watching brief for me.
Selection - No bet
Champions League outright winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 2/1 - Manchester City
- 11/2 - Bayern Munich
- 8/1 - PSG
- 10/1 - Liverpool
- 10/1 - Real Madrid
- 11/1 - Napoli
- 14/1 - Chelsea
- 20/1 - Tottenham
- 22/1 bar
Odds correct at 1230 (13/02/23)
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