Liverpool host Manchester United in the Premier League on Tuesday night and Tom Carnduff picks out three best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Liverpool (-1 handicap) to beat Manchester United at 11/10 (General)
1pt Bruno Fernandes to be shown a card at 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Bruno Fernandes to be sent off at 40/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
This was one of the Premier League's all-time great fixtures but Liverpool host Manchester United with both teams in completely contrasting positions.
Jürgen Klopp's Reds are relentless. The quadruple dream is still alive after seeing off Manchester City to reach the FA Cup final while they face Villarreal in the Champions League semi-finals.
For United, their decline is evident every single week we unfortunately have to endure watching them. They just about got past bottom club Norwich at Old Trafford at the weekend and the performances in recent weeks have done little to prevent us from believing this will be anything but a comfortable home victory.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Manchester United 13/2
The last time these two met Liverpool ran out 5-0 winners with the result wrapped up in the 38th minute as they raced into a 3-0 lead. Those five goals came from 3.57 xG - it was hardly a fluke result given the performance.
There is every chance we see this game end up in a similar outcome. Liverpool are on a completely different level to this flat United side. Throw in a few injuries for the visitors and we can see just how bad their current situation is.
At a best price of 11/10, there is appeal in taking LIVERPOOL (-1 HANDICAP) TO WIN. This is something they have achieved on multiple occasions at Anfield.
In 15 home Premier League games this season, Liverpool have averaged 2.97 expected goals for (xGF) per outing, conceding 0.73 expected goals against (xGA) across that period. It's remarkable strength in front of their own supporters - as United should find out.
In their last ten across the Premier League and Champions League, both home and away, Liverpool's average expected goal difference (xGD) has been +1.68. Six of those have been at home - the xGD in those games has been +2.08.
On the flip side, Manchester United's has - as expected - been a lot worse. The xGD at a much lower +0.16 per game. However, those figures were boosted by performances back in February.
Focus on Premier League and Champions League in March and April and their true recent form is evident. The last six has seen an average of -0.32 xGD per game - a run that includes games against relegation threatened Everton and Norwich.
In the player-related markets, one bet that is of interest is the 11/4 available on BRUNO FERNANDES TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
The United midfielder has seven yellows on his Premier League tally already and game state could be a factor in this one - a comfortable Liverpool performance may see him leave in a late foul or two.
A booking for dissent is a possibility as we have seen this season. Fernandes was carded in that 5-0 hammering at Old Trafford - it's a surprise to see a price of 11/4 available on this selection.
And just in case there is one foul or incident too many, it's also worth a small play on the 40/1 available with a couple of bookmakers for FERNANDES TO BE SENT OFF.
Add in the Anfield crowd making sure they know about every small mistake and there could be the perfect mix of an away player catching the referee's attention for the wrong reasons. Backing FERNANDES to be in the book should go hand-in-hand with a comfortable LIVERPOOL VICTORY.
Liverpool v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Liverpool (-1 handicap) to beat Manchester United at 11/10 (General)
- 1pt Bruno Fernandes to be shown a card at 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 0.5pt Bruno Fernandes to be sent off at 40/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1930 BST (18/04/22)
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