Monday night brings about a huge Merseyside derby clash between Liverpool and Everton. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, providing a best bet, next best and longshot.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Everton +1.0 Asian Handicap at 21/20 (bet365)
0.5pt Everton to win at 11/2 (General)
0.5pt James Tarkowski to score anytime at 30/1 (Unibet)
Surely everyone has now come to the realisation that this Liverpool team just aren't good this season?
It's something I've been repeatedly saying, that Jurgen Klopp's side simply aren't performing at top four levels this season. In fact, what we have seen of late has been that of a bottom-half team.
Another shocking defensive display from Liverpool...
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) February 4, 2023
The below graph is from the start of last season. The gap between the blue line (attack) and orange line (defence) is getting closer by the gameweek which is a hugely concerning sign.#LFC pic.twitter.com/bUQUIOVYiE
Since the World Cup break, the Reds have played 10 times across three competitions and posted a W3, D2, L5 record, averaging 1.37 xGF and 1.99 xGA per game.
Defensively they are a mess, with every team they face creating an abundance of chances, and there is no sign of this slowing given the personnel and tactical issues they have.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Liverpool 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Everton 11/2
A dip in their attacking process is not what the Reds need, but that's what has occurred since the restart, and means they have to be opposed in any game where they are seen as short-priced favourites.
That is even the case at Anfield, where they have allowed 1.44 xGA per game which ranks them as the 11th best defensive team when playing as hosts.
Taking Liverpool on is the major reason for my favourite bet in this game, which is EVERTON +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP, and while we only have the smallest of sample sizes around Everton under Sean Dyche, the impact he made in a short space of time to deservedly beat league leaders Arsenal last weekend cannot be understated.
The Toffees limited their visitors to their lowest xGF total of the season so far, while creating nearly 2.0 xGF of their own. It was an excellent display and I expect to see the same tactics and application on Monday night.
The 0.75 xG Arsenal managed at Goodison Park was their lowest total of the season.
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) February 4, 2023
*The Dyche effect #EFC | #AFC #EVEARS pic.twitter.com/leI3hvEdC0
The beauty of taking Everton +1.0 on the Asian line means that if Everton avoid defeat, the bet is a winner, and if they lose by a single goal margin we get our money back.
I can't see the Toffees being blown out by a declining Liverpool, and interestingly, the Reds have only won by a two-goal margin in two of their 10 home league games this term, with both of those coming against the current bottom two - 3-1 v Southampton and 9-0 v Bournemouth.
If you'd've backed the opponent +1.0 on the Asian Handicap in every league game at Anfield so far this season, you would have had a winner four times and a push (money back) four times, so I really like the look of this bet.
I'm also happy to have a small play on EVERTON TO WIN the game at 11/2.
The reasoning has been discussed above, and mainly centres around the vulnerabilities of Liverpool. One area which appears to be becoming a greater problem for the Reds is set-piece defending, and I could see the visitors having success from dead-ball situations.
That leads me on to another longshot punt, which is JAMES TARKOWSKI TO SCORE ANYTIME at 30/1.
He bagged the winner last week against Arsenal, and the set-piece data suggests it will be an area Everton look to exploit.
Since the restart, the Toffees have averaged 0.55 xGF per game from set-pieces, with 44% of their total xGF coming from dead-ball situations. That takes into account just one game under Sean Dyche, highlighting that even under Frank Lampard Everton were dangerous from corners and free-kicks.
Opponents Liverpool have looked increasingly vulnerable from such situations since Virgil van Dijk suffered an injury, allowing 0.63 xGA per game from set-pieces since the Dutchman went down.
Tarkowski had two shots in last week's win, and is sure to be a target for the Toffees, so at 30/1, he's worth a small bet to net in back-to-back games.
Liverpool v Everton best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Everton +1.0 Asian Handicap at 21/20 (bet365)
- 0.5pt Everton to win at 11/2 (bet365, Boylesport)
- 0.5pt James Tarkowski to score anytime at 30/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 0-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1410 GMT (10/02/22)
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