Steven Gerrard returns to Anfield for the first time in the opposition dugout as his Aston Villa side take on Liverpool. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 21/10 (BetVictor)
With Manchester City hosting Wolves in the lunch-time kick-off, Liverpool could find themselves four points behind Pep Guardiola’s men come 3 o’clock, further enhancing the need for yet another victory.
The Reds have won their last six successive matches, including a come-from-behind victory over AC Milan on Tuesday and that with more-or-less a second-string starting XI.
Surprisingly, Jurgen Klopp did hand starts to Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane in Milan, and a decisive call it turned out to be, Salah netting the equaliser before Mane’s shot was parried into the path of Divock Origi for the winner.
It could prove costly moving forward, however, as Liverpool now embark on a run of six fixtures across an 18-day period, including a tricky tie away to Tottenham, as well as facing Leicester home and away.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Liverpool 1/5 | Draw 11/2 | Aston Villa 12/1
For Aston Villa this could be considered something of a free hit, a game to be overlooked perhaps, particularly with very winnable fixtures against Norwich and Burnley coming up, but with Steven Gerrard’s heavy links to Anfield, it is difficult to see the visitors not placing plenty of emphasis on this match.
Gerrard looks to have turned Villa’s season around already, winning three of his first four games as manager, and the one he did lose was against Manchester City.
They have been infinitely more solid at the back, conceding an average of 0.97 expected goals against (xGA) across those four matches, a vast improvement from the 1.66 they were allowing under Dean Smith.
In attack they have lacked fluidity, failing to create more than 1.0 expected goals for (xGF) in any of Gerrard’s three opening matches. They were much better against Leicester at the weekend, and their two goals were deserved based on the opportunities they created, but it was against a porous Foxes defence.
In fact, since the beginning of November, no Premier League side has allowed more chances than Leicester, so Villa’s upturn in attacking propensity is probably best taken with a pinch of salt.
With that in mind then, it could be worth going against the grain in this match and siding with UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
Games involving Liverpool this season have seen more goals scored than games involving any other team in the league (3.73 average match goals), but that figure drops to 3.29 when at Anfield – much lower than the 4.13 goals Liverpool away matches average.
In fact, only 40% of the goals Liverpool have scored this season have come at Anfield, with the Reds’ creativity also falling when at home – averaging 2.6 xGF, opposed to 2.9 when on the road.
Admittedly, three of Gerrard’s four matches in charge have gone Over 2.5 Goals, but the probability of them doing so was relatively low given the chances created. Only the Leicester match returned a total xG of over 2.5, with their games against Brighton (1.36), Crystal Palace (1.49) and Manchester City (2.08) all seeing more goals than were likely.
Gerrard will be desperate to avoid a humbling at his old stomping ground, and with a very busy schedule coming up, Liverpool could make a few changes.
At 21/10, backing fewer than three goals could be the way to go in this fixture.
Liverpool v Aston Villa score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 21/10 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 1710 GMT (08/12/21)
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