Chelsea are in a strong position for qualification heading into their second leg against Lille. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Chelsea to beat Lille at 10/11 (General)
The only tie in the second batch of Champions League round of 16 second legs that isn't level after the first contest. Chelsea hold a very strong position for progression following a 2-0 win over Lille at Stamford Bridge a couple of weeks ago.
It was the right result based on expected goals (xG) too - Chelsea winning that scoreline 1.64 - 0.81. It's why Chelsea are odds-on for success in this one and should justify their price.
In a game of limited big chances, Chelsea took two of the three that they created and this game looks like one that will follow the same pattern. It is unlikely to be a contest filled with shots but there will be opportunities.
One of the big talking points in previous weeks surrounding this game was Chelsea's ability to play unvaccinated players. At the time of writing, it doesn't appear that there is any clarity on this after Thomas Tuchel previously claimed he was confident they could be involved.
Regardless, despite Lille's decent form in Ligue 1, their season on the whole has been disappointing. They trail league leaders PSG by a huge gap of 22 points and face a battle just to qualify for this competition again.
They also sit 9th in the home standings of their domestic league with six wins from 14 contests in front of their own supporters. They are a tricky side to beat though - just two have been defeats - but Chelsea's quality should be enough.
Even with potential absentees, the 10/11 general price on CHELSEA TO WIN looks a solid bet. They are the Premier League's second best away side after all.
Tuchel's men are also only one of three who have gained a maximum 15 points from their last five league contests. Across that period, they've only conceded one goal - good news for a team with a good record of keeping clean sheets in this competition.
It's also interesting to focus on the xG figures for Lille in this competition. The +1.80 xGD is massively helped by the fact they played Wolfsburg twice - a side currently sat 12th in the Bundesliga standings in a season to forget.
Take away those two games and their xGD stands at -1.69. Chelsea, on the other hand, come into the contest with an xGD of +8.90 - with 2.00 xG or higher posted in their final four group games.
With the uncertainty surrounding player availability, the markets relating to those on the Chelsea side of things are best avoided until team news is out. There is also the rotation factor with Tuchel having options in most positions.
With the value on offer, near even money, CHELSEA TO WIN looks a good bet given what we have seen from them so far.
Lille v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Chelsea to beat Lille at 10/11 (General)
Score prediction: Lille 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 0900 GMT (15/03/22)
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