Leeds take on Cardiff in an FA Cup third round replay this Wednesday, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, providing a best bet.
While this isn't a 'must-win' game for Jesse Marsch and Leeds, it certainly feels as though a negative outcome here would leave the American coach in a precarious position.
The Whites welcome manager-less Cardiff after a 2-2 draw in the initial third round tie, a game in which Leeds scored a 93rd minute equaliser to force a replay.
Marsch's side are winless since the restart, conceding multiple goals in four of their five matches, highlighting their continuing defensive struggles.
They still provide a threat at the other end though, scoring in four of five and more than once in two of those contests.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Wednesday
TV Channel: ITV 4
With this being a fairly big game for Marsch's future, I expect what would represent a strong XI, meaning the short price about a home win looks fair against a Bluebirds side winless in nine.
There is little value in the 1X2, so I'm going to delve into the goalscorer markets where we can find Leeds' top scorer this season, RODRIGO MORENO, available at 21/20 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Spaniard has netted seven goals in his last nine competitive appearances for Leeds, and there is every chance he will be on penalty duty again - which only enhances my fancy.
In the Premier League this season, he has averaged 0.48 xG/95, which puts him ahead of the likes of Marcus Rashford (0.47) and Kai Havertz (0.36).
This basically tells us that he is getting on the end of decent chances on a regular basis, suggesting his scoring streak is no fluke.
Given the opposition are a level below this Leeds side, we can expect the hosts to create plenty of opportunities, and if Rodrigo does get the nod, he will be on the end of some chances.
This same bet is as short as 8/13 in places, so the odds-against available with bet365 represents excellent value.
Leeds v Cardiff best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Rodrigo Moreno to score anytime at 21/20 (bet365)
Score prediction: Leeds 3-1 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (17/01/23)
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