Leeds v Brentford tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Brentford travel up north to face Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds on Sunday afternoon. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brentford or Draw at 20/21 (Mansion Bet)
A late Raphinha penalty was enough to secure Leeds a third win of the season against Crystal Palace on Tuesday, moving them five points clear of the relegation zone.
Marcelo Bielsa’s men were good value for the victory, producing a dominant second-half display in which they created plenty of chances.
Brentford on the other hand, fell victim to Antonio Conte’s resurgent Tottenham, the north London side creating their second-highest amount of chances (2.43 xGF) of the season in their 2-0 victory on Thursday evening.
The Bees struggled to carve out any real opportunities against Spurs, but as a general rule Thomas Frank’s men have been towards the top end of the creative scale this season, boasting the sixth best attack in the Premier League as per expected goals.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
Leeds 10/11 | Draw 5/2 | Brentford 3/1
Leeds’ performances have undoubtedly started to pick up in recent weeks, and it is now just one defeat in their last four for Bielsa’s men, but their struggles in attack remain apparent without Patrick Bamford.
Bamford is creator as much as scorer, his runs creating spaces for the likes of Raphinha and Daniel James, and he has clearly been a huge miss for the Yorkshire side since his injury.
He is nearing a return, but this weekend looks like it will come too soon for him, and Leeds’ issue are likely to continue.
Leeds have scored just eight goals in the eight games since Bamford’s absence, and Raphinha has been responsible for four of those. If the Brazilian doesn’t fire, Leeds struggle.
That could be the case again here then, with Brentford a really shrewd team in terms of limiting the opposition, and nullifying Raphinha could be their target.
It is difficult to see Leeds, who have scored just two in their last three matches, breaking down the Bees, but at the other end, they could find it tricky to keep Frank’s men at bay.
Against Tottenham in midweek was the first time Brentford have failed to score in a Premier League match since mid-October – and they were unfortunate not to do so in that particular game (xG: BRE 2.16-0.31 CHE).
The Bees are likely to score, and an odds-on price for Leeds to win looks on the short side.
At home to Crystal Palace, who are on the same points as Brentford, Leeds were 5/4. At home to Leicester, who are just two places above the Bees, Leeds were 7/4.
Given Leeds have drawn six of their 14 matches this season though, there is a high probability that this game finishes all square, which means backing BRENTFORD OR DRAW in the double chance market is the way to go.
Leeds v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Brentford or Draw at 20/21 (Mansion Bet)
Score prediction: Leeds 0-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (03/12/21)
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