Leeds host Aston Villa in Sunday's late game, and Jake Osgathorpe takes a look at the match, selecting his best bets in the process.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Both teams 20+ booking points at evens (William Hill)
1.5pts Leeds to win at 7/5 (10bet, SpreadEx)
The Manchester derby whets the appetite on Sunday before the big Super clash at 16:30 - Leeds hosting of Aston Villa.
There is plenty of history around these two, from meetings in the Championship that saw Leeds literally let Villa equalise, to thrilling goal-laden Premier League matches, and so we could be in for a real cracker to follow up the derby.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Leeds 5/4 | Draw 5/2 | Aston Villa 2/1
Two bets catch the eye, starting in the more mainstream markets, with LEEDS TO WIN the first selection.
Jesse Marsch's side have started the season well, especially at home, winning two and drawing the other of their three games in front of their own fans.
More impressively is that their xG process across those games has been very good (1.53 xGF, 1.03 xGA per game), and should they continue to hit those levels, Elland Road will be a fortress this season.
Aston Villa have been woeful away from home so far this season, losing all three of their matches, but the most concerning thing isn't the results, it's the performances.
Steven Gerrard's side have been pathetic in attack (0.66 xGF per away game) and wide open in defence (2.14 xGA per game).
Add to this sorry process the fact that they head to Elland Road without Matty Cash, Diego Carlos and Lucas Digne - 3/4 of their starting defence - plus holding midfielder Boubacar Kamara, and a home win really does appeal at the prices.
The second and most confident selection in this game comes in the cards market, where recent history, current season trends and a decent refereeing appointment has me really liking the look of BOTH TEAMS 20+ BOOKING POINTS at even money.
Let's start with recent history. Meetings between these two sides have seen this bet land in all four of their Premier League meetings since they returned to the top flight, and it also landed in both of their meetings in the Championship that season with the goal that was gifted.
That's a 100% strike rate over the last six head-to-heads, with last season's meetings seeing the card count end 5-3 and 3-3 when the pair met. There is clearly some bad blood there.
Next, current trends. Leeds have picked up 2.17 yellow cards per game this season, while Villa are even higher, averaging 2.57.
Finally, the referee. Stuart Attwell is the man in the middle, and he comes into this game having flashed seven yellows in his last outing when overseeing Tottenham v Fulham. Last season he averaged 3.55 cards per game in the Premier League, so is a good appointment for what could become a feisty encounter.
We are getting even money for both teams hitting 20+ booking points, with the bet as short as 5/6 elsewhere.
Leeds v Aston Villa score prediction and best bets
- 2pts Both teams 20+ booking points at evens (William Hill)
- 1.5pts Leeds to win at 7/5 (10bet, SpreadEx)
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct 1630 BST (29/09/22)
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