Football betting tips: Premier League
4pts Leeds to be relegated at 9/4 (General)
1pt Leeds to finish bottom at 12/1 (General)
For any newly-promoted side, scoring goals is vital.
The 2024/25 campaign marked the second consecutive in which the three sides who went up were sent straight back down. A lack of firepower was certainly a factor.
Ipswich netted 36, Leicester had 33 while Southampton's 26 was just six better than the lowest ever recorded (20 by Derby 07/08 and Sheffield United 20/21). Without an attack, survival hopes are virtually non-existent.
Which, after a frantic deadline day which delivered rare drama for once, takes us to Leeds. The Whites now a value pick at 9/4 for RELEGATION.
The opening three games have delivered four points, perhaps one more than expected considering they've faced Arsenal (5-0 thrashing) and Newcastle (a 0-0 draw), but the short term gain could well mask the long term pain.
It was clear what was needed in the final days of the window - attacking reinforcements. Farke couldn't have been clearer in his desire for that to happen.
At the beginning of August, he said: "We know in the offence we are not ready for Premier League level. We've proven we can be ready for one game and for that I am not too concerned at the moment as it stands."
In the weeks which followed, Dominic Calvert-Lewin arrived on a free transfer, while Noah Okafor became their biggest signing of the summer as his arrival from AC Milan commanded a £18million fee.
On Saturday, following that drab draw with Newcastle, Farke again repeated the call.
"We want to add more quality up front to be competitive in every game. There are 38 games so we do need more help up front," he stated. It couldn't be any clearer what was required.
Expectations were high on deadline day. Nothing was delivered.
It paints a worrying picture for Leeds. With just three games played, it seems clear this is going to be a campaign of struggle.
They've managed one goal from open play across those three. Only Wolves (2.13) have a lower non-penalty expected goals (np-xG) figure than Leeds' 2.20. There's already a significant focus on keeping clean sheets, which is tough.
Lukas Nmecha on his Leeds debut 🎯 pic.twitter.com/fxacPkL1OJ
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) August 18, 2025
When you compare the winger group which Leeds won the Sky Bet Championship title with last season compared to their current group, there's a strong argument to be made that there hasn't been a great deal of improvement.
The decision to allow Largie Ramazani to depart on loan seems strange when a replacement didn't come in. Jack Harrison has been reintegrated after an uninspiring loan spell at Everton.
A switch to a 4-3-3 sees the ineffective Brenden Aaronson shifted out wide too. The Harrison-Aaronson winger pairing which finished the Newcastle game a strong indicator of why this Leeds team will struggle to score goals.
And there's a huge amount of 'ifs' with this side too.
IF Calvert-Lewin can stay fit he may well hit double figures. IF Wilfried Gnonto leads this winger group he has the potential to hit double figures. IF the midfield can contribute with five or six goals each they may well have enough. IF they can use their physicality at set-pieces they may get goals this way.
But we don't have a great deal of positives to go at which we can say with some certainty.
Ultimately, this is a group and a manager which secured 100 points last season while scoring 95 goals in England's second tier.
Yet recent history has shown us the significant step up between the two divisions. It's no longer enough to just be a good Championship side.
Leeds may well benefit from this, finally, being a year in which more established Premier League sides are at risk of the drop. The problem is that you don't want to operate by hoping that three teams are worse than you are.
Leeds had to get it right in the summer transfer window. The end of July strongly suggested they were on the right track. The end of August became a completely different story.
Odds correct at 1100 BST (02/09/25)
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