League Two play-off final tips: Crawley vs Crewe best bets and preview
Football betting tips: League Two play-off final
3pts Under 2.5 goals at evens (Betfair, William Hill)
0.5pts Mickey Demetriou to score anytime at 9/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Jay Williams to be sent off at 40/1 (bet365)
*All bets 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 37/1
- Crewe to win
- Mickey Demetriou to score anytime
- Joel Tabiner to score or assist
Who saw this coming?
Crawley and Crewe slugging it out at Wembley for a spot in League One.
Not me and neither did the bookies.
In fact, Crawley began the season as the joint favourites for relegation and Crewe were the third favourites to drop out of the football league.
The pair were also the least fancied in the play-offs, Crawley pitched at 5/1 for promotion and Crewe at 4/1.
Ante-post Sky Bet League Two relegation 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 10/3 - Crawley, Harrogate
- 9/2 - Colchester, Morecambe
- 11/2 - Crewe
- 6/1 - Barrow
- 15/2 - AFC Wimbledon, Newport, Sutton
Odds correct at 1700 (21/07/23)
Crawley cruised into the final, thumping favourites MK Dons 8-1 on aggregate, Danilo Orsi netting a hattrick in the second leg, which explains why they are the favourites at Wembley.
Crewe looked dead and buried at the halfway stage of their clash with Doncaster finding themselves two goals down after a woeful first leg performance.
Two early goals in South Yorkshire swung the momentum in the Railwaymen’s favour, who ultimately won on penalties.
What are the best bets?
Recent history shows goals are hard to come by in League Two play-off finals.
The last 10 have averaged two goals per game with under 2.5 clicking in 60%, three have ended goalless.
The two contrasting styles also point to a lack of goals.
Put simply; Crawley want to play football and Crewe don’t.
Whilst the big Wembley pitch will suit the Red Devils, it will force Crewe to sit deep, be compact and look to play on the counter. The even money about UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks a great price.
There have been three red cards across the last five play-off finals.
It might just be coincidence but with a referee averaging over five cards a game and a card magnet in Crawley’s midfield, I think backing JAY WILLIAMS TO BE SENT OFF is worth a punt.
Williams was in the thick of it at MK Dons, scoring the opener with a tackle and then he was on the receiving end of a stamp within the first 10 minutes.
Usually, he is dishing out the fouls averaging 1.4 a game, impressive considering he averages 1.5 tackles.
JAY WILLIAMS EXTENDS CRAWLEY'S LEAD TO FOUR INSIDE THREE MINUTES 💥
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) May 11, 2024
Will there be any way back for MK Dons? pic.twitter.com/F6x5DhRzZA
I could not resist a punt on MICKEY DEMETRIOU to net under the big arch.
He started the comeback at Doncaster, nodding home his ninth of the season.
It means that Luke Leahy of Wycombe is the only defender to have scored more goals (10) than Demetriou in the football league.
The central defender also relishes playing against the Red Devils, netting four times against them in his career. At 9/1, he is worth a small punt TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Team news
Will Wright, Harry Forster and Klaidi Lolos were all forced off before the hour mark in the second leg. The former has almost been an ever present this term, whilst the other two’s roles have grown.
No doubt the trio will be doing all they can to declare themselves fit for Sunday.
Scott Lindsey named an unchanged side in the semi’s and I assume he will do the same at Wembley if possible.
As for Crewe, Elliot Nevitt was withdrawn in extra time with a knock at Doncaster and may have to sit Sunday out.
Lee Bell rang made the changes for the second leg, four in total with a change of formation. If the XI came through the game unscathed, Bell may well stick with it.
Predicted line-ups
Crawley: Addai; Wright, Conroy, Maguire; Forster, Williams, L. Kelly, J. Kelly; Lolos, Campbell; Orsi
Crewe: Stryjek; Billington, Turns, Demetriou, Adebisi; Thomas, Tabiner; Tracey, Rowe, Long; Nevitt
Match facts
- Crewe Alexandra are unbeaten in each of their last seven games against Crawley Town (W6 D1), all of which have come in League Two. Indeed, the Railwaymen won both meetings this term (1-0 at home, 4-2 away).
- Having lost both league meetings with Crewe this season, Crawley could become just the fourth side in the fourth tier this century to lose both league games but get promoted in the play-off final against the same side after Cheltenham Town in 2006, Dagenham and Redbridge in 2010 and Morecombe in 2021.
- Crawley are looking to become the first side since Coventry City in 2018 to earn promotion in their first ever time in the Football League play-offs, while Crewe have won each of their last two appearances in the play-off finals in 1997 in the third tier and 2012 in League Two.
- Crawley’s eight goals across their play-off semi-final against MK Dons is the most by a side in their first two games in the Football League play-offs. Indeed, the only sides with more goals during their first ever year in the play-offs are Walsall in 1988 (11) and Dagenham and Redbridge in 2010 (10).
- This is the first time since 2019 that the sides finishing sixth (Crewe) and seventh (Crawley) will meet in the final of the League Two play-offs. The last time a side finished seventh and earned promotion was Northampton in 2020.
- This will be Crawley’s first ever appearance at Wembley, while Crewe will be making their fifth appearance there, winning on each of their last three trips (D1).
- Since a 2-0 home league defeat to Doncaster in March, Crawley have scored in each of their last nine games (24 goals), while they last netted in 10 successive matches in all competitions in March 2021.
- Crewe enter the League Two play-off final having won just two of their last 11 games (D4 L5), while their 2-0 second-leg win over Doncaster was the first time they’d scored more than once in a game since a 3-2 defeat to Morecambe at the beginning of March.
- Two of Jay Williams’ three goals for Crawley in all competitions this season came across both legs of the semi-finals against MK Dons. Indeed, the last player to score in both legs and the final in a single year in the EFL play-offs was James Wilson for Port Vale in 2022.
- In the top four tiers this season (inc. play-offs), only Luke Leahy (10) has more goals among defenders than Crewe’s Mickey Demetriou (9), while he has more Football League goals against Crawley (4) than any other side.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (16/05/24)
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