League Two final day: Who's going up and who's making the play-offs?
Two teams are definitely going up but seven others remain in promotion and play-off contention ahead of Sky Bet League Two's final day of the season. Michael Beardmore provides the analysis and a best bet.
Football betting tips: League Two final-day
1pt Port Vale to finish outside the top seven at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Given it boasts an extra promotion place compared to the other two EFL divisions, Sky Bet League Two is virtually guaranteed final-day drama every season.
And so it has proven once again in 2021-22, with the title, one remaining automatic promotion place and three play-off spots all to be contested and decided come Saturday afternoon.
League Two final-day
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Leaders Exeter and second-placed Forest Green are already guaranteed League One football next season.
But five other clubs all have chances – ranging from strong to infinitesimal – to bag third place and two others are hoping for slip-ups from one or more of those to steal a play-off spot.
Sky Bet League Two winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 2/7 – Exeter
- 5/2 – Forest Green
Odds correct 1000 BST (04/05/22)
Who will win the League Two title?
Two months ago, you could have bagged odds of 33/1 on Exeter City to win the Sky Bet League Two title – and rightly so, as they sat eighth in the table, 14 points behind leaders Forest Green Rovers.
Now? The Grecians, a point ahead going into the final day, are a best-priced 4/11 to claim the crown after a stunning run of 30 points from a possible 39, while Rovers have completely run out of steam.
It’s hard to imagine anything other than a trophy parade in Devon – for two reasons.
Exeter on fire as Forest Green have faded
Firstly, there’s the form guide – Exeter’s record in their past 22 games is W15 D5 L2, 50 points from a possible 66, while Forest Green, previously unstoppable, have won four of 16.
Then there’s the final-day fixtures, Exeter at home to a fading Port Vale side who have lost three straight to drop out of the top three, while Forest Green visit a Mansfield outfit that has won 13 of its past 14 home games.
It’s been a miracle in many ways that Rovers have been overhauled – it would now take another, admittedly more minor, one for them to claim the title that long seemed comfortably within their grasp.
Sky Bet League Two top-three finish odds (via Sky Bet)
- 4/7 – Northampton
- 13/8 – Bristol Rovers
- 18/1 – Mansfield
- 33/1 – Port Vale
- 200/1 – Swindon
Odds correct 1000 BST (04/05/22)
Who will claim third place in League Two?
- Barrow v NORTHAMPTON
- BRISTOL ROVERS v Scunthorpe
- EXETER v Port Vale
- Mansfield v FOREST GREEN
- Walsall v SWINDON
We said earlier five teams could claim third place – in reality, that number is most probably two.
Bristol Rovers – tipped by Sporting Life at 5/1 a few weeks ago to go up automatically – are second favourites but are virtually assured to win on the final day as they host bottom side Scunthorpe.
The Iron have been abysmal all season, long since relegated, losing 18 of their past 23 games, taking just seven points from a possible 69.
A Rovers win, as expected, would dash any hopes of the three teams – Mansfield, Port Vale and Swindon – immediately below them, three teams who all have far, far tougher final-day games.
Infogol’s Expected Points metrics suggest Rovers are extremely fortunate to be in such a lofty position – indeed it has them a whopping 23 points worse off, in 18th place, rather than fourth.
But those metrics cannot measure intangibles – and the heart Joey Barton’s men showed to come from 3-2 down in the 89th minute to win 4-3 at Rochdale last weekend was promotion material.
Northampton favourites but don't discount Bristol Rovers
Nonetheless, they are likely to need a favour on the final day as, while they sit level on 77 points with third-placed Northampton, the Cobblers have a goal difference superior by five.
Jon Brady’s side certainly have the trickier final-day fixture away at Barrow – but then again a trip to the proverbial Dog & Duck is probably tougher than being at home to Scunthorpe.
And even if Northampton do win, don’t completely count Rovers out when it comes to overturning that goal difference – after all Scunthorpe have lost 4-0 three times, plus 5-1 and 6-1 this season.
Northampton should do the job - but there's no value at 4/7 and Rovers are a bit skinny too at 13/8.
Sky Bet League Two to make the play-offs odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/25 – Mansfield
- 1/6 – Port Vale
- 1/4 – Swindon
- 6/5 – Sutton
- 14/1 – Tranmere
Odds correct 1000 BST (04/05/22)
Who will make the League Two play-offs?
- EXETER v Port Vale
- Harrogate v SUTTON UNITED
- Leyton Orient v TRANMERE
- Mansfield v FOREST GREEN
- Walsall v SWINDON
With Northampton and Bristol Rovers guaranteed at least a play-off spot, the spotlight turns to the five teams below them, all competing for the three remaining places.
As mentioned, Mansfield, Port Vale and Swindon could all still go up automatically but that is incredibly unlikely, as evidenced by odds of 18/1, 33/1 and 200/1 respectively.
In-form Mansfield need just a point at home to fading Forest Green to seal a play-off spot – even should they lose, it would need a Vale draw/win, a Swindon win and a Sutton win to deprive them, with all three of those sides away.
At the other end of the scale, ninth-placed Tranmere must win at Leyton Orient and hope Swindon fail to collect a point at mid-table Walsall and Sutton fail to win at Harrogate – unlikely, which is why they are 14/1 shots.
The team of interest from a betting perspective here are Port Vale.
Have Port Vale thrown play-off spot away?
From play-off certainties, they have lost three straight and visit in-form Exeter, who clinch the title with victory. It’s not too difficult to imagine the sixth-placed Valiants losing again.
If they do, a door opens for the two sides below them – particularly eighth-placed Sutton United.
If Sutton – four wins in their past six – triumph at 17th-placed Harrogate and seventh-placed Swindon avoid defeat at mid-table Walsall, Vale will drop out of the top seven.
Swindon have won three straight to haul themselves back into the picture and a Robins win or draw is likely at Walsall.
Thus, without completely discounting Vale at Exeter, the key gamble is whether Sutton will win at Harrogate – at a price of 7/2 on Vale to miss out, it's the best value play on offer if you want a final-day flutter.
League One final-day best bet
- Port Vale to finish outside the top seven at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct 1000 BST (04/05/22)
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