Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Ciro Immobile to score anytime at 13/5 (Unibet)
On paper, this should be a straightforward tie for Bayern Munich.
The Bavarian giants have been drawn against the team currently eighth in Serie A and are heavily fancied to progress, but there are problems at Bayern.
They haven't looked themselves for a while now, and by 'themselves' I mean dominant force, scraping to the Bundesliga title last season and currently five points behind Bayer Leverkusen this season following a 3-0 defeat to Xabi Alonso's men.
What we get from them here remains to be seen, but we know what we will get from Maurizio Sarri's Lazio, who will be tough to break down having allowed just 1.09 xGA per game in Serie A this season, and importantly, just 0.82 per home game.
What are the best bets?
Bayern look too short to go near in the 1X2 markets given their struggles, and Lazio or draw at 5/4 appeals more.
But, given the defensive frailties of the Germans, especially away from home, I'm happy to chance Lazio's captain and leading marksman CIRO IMMOBILE TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Bayern have conceded 15 goals in their last 10 away competitive games, shipping three at Leverkusen (1.32 xGA) and two at Augsburg (2.61 xGA) in their last two trips, and it wasn't long ago they shipped five at Frankfurt (1.96 xGA).
They are a vulnerable defensive team at the minute, and Lazio have the qualities to create opportunities.
While not super high-scoring, they have hit the net in 13 of their 16 home games in all competitions this season, finding the net in all three of their Champions League matches.
Immobile scored three in six appearances in the group stage, but in limited minutes, meaning he's averaging 0.73 goals per 90 in the competition, and the last time Lazio were in the UCL (20/21) he netted five times in five appearances, so loves the big stage.
His season has been stop start due to injuries, but he has scored in his last two outings since returning, so is in form. Across Serie A this season he is averaging 0.59 xG per 90, putting him in the upper echelons of the division, which highlights just how effective he has been despite limited game time.
Being on penalties is a huge bonus too for this game, and if Lazio are to get a result, the chances are Immobile is the man to hit the net.
BuildABet @ 37/1
- Lazio +1 handicap
- Ciro Immobile to score anytime
- Ciro Immobile to be carded
- Nicolo Rovella 2+ foul committed
Lazio will be a tough out in Rome for an out-of-sorts Bayern Munich team, and the Italians can get a result in the first leg.
Immobile is a potent threat to a vulnerable Bayern defence, but as well as averaging 0.59 xG per 90 this season, the Italy striker has picked up seven cards.
Lazio midfielder Nicolo Rovella will be in the thick of things on Wednesday, and has averaged 1.7 fouls per 90 in all competitions this season.
Team news
Nicolo Rovella returns from suspension for Lazio, meaning Maurizio Sarri has options in midfield, with Rovella, Danilo Cataldi and Matias Vecino battling it out to join Matteo Guendouzi and Luis Alberto in the engine room.
Spanish centre-back Patric is still struggling with a shoulder problem, but Mattia Zaccagni could be back in contention after a toe injury.
Having scored his 200th Serie A goal at the weekend, captain Ciro Immobile will again lead an attacking triumvirate. The Italy striker averages a goal every 99 minutes in the Champions League, with only Simone Inzaghi netting more times for Lazio in Europe's top club competition.
Bayern Munich have added Sacha Boey, Eric Dier and Bryan Zaragoza to their options since the group stage, though the latter could be ruled out of Wednesday's game by illness.
Thomas Tuchel's absentee list remains lengthy, with Kingsley Coman (hamstring), Serge Gnabry (groin), Konrad Laimer (calf), Bouna Sarr (knee) and Alphonso Davies all out.
It remains to be seen whether the ex-PSG coach will revert to a four-man defence following Saturday's events in Leverkusen - that may see Dier dropped to the bench.
Predicted line-ups
Lazio: Provedel; Marusic, Romagnoli, Gila, Hysaj; Guendouzi, Rovella, Alberto; Isaksen, Immobile, Anderson
Bayern Munich: Neuer; Mazraoui, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Kimmich, Goretzka; Sane, Muller, Musiala; Kane
Match facts
- The only previous meetings between Lazio and Bayern Munich came in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League round of 16, with the German side winning both legs (4-1 away, 2-1 at home).
- Bayern Munich have won their last five UEFA Champions League games against Italian sides, and are unbeaten in 12 such games since a 3-2 home loss to Internazionale in March 2011.
- Having been eliminated from four of their first five UEFA Champions League knockout stage ties against Italian sides (including the 2010 final against Inter), FC Bayern München have now progressed from each of their last three.
- Lazio are making just their third appearance in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages, being eliminated from both of their previous such ties in the competition (1999-00 quarter-final against Valencia, 2020-21 round of 16 against Bayern Munich).
- FC Bayern München have progressed from 11 of their last 12 UEFA Champions League round of 16 ties, with the exception coming against eventual champions Liverpool in 2018-19. They’ve avoided defeat in the first leg of these ties in each of the last 11 campaigns (W7 D4).
- Lazio have averaged 165 pressures in the final third per game in the UEFA Champions League this season, the most of any side. Despite those efforts to pressure, however, the Italian side have only recovered possession in the final third 23 times, which ranks 26th out of 32 teams in the competition this term.
- No player has been involved in more goals in this season’s UEFA Champions League than Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane (7 – 4 goals, 3 assists). Only in 2017-18 (9) has the English striker been involved in more in a single campaign.
- Of the 10 players to have scored 5+ goals for Lazio in the UEFA Champions League, Ciro Immobile has the best minutes per goal ratio (99). The Italian has netted eight goals in 11 appearances in the competition for the club, with only Simone Inzaghi netting more overall (15 goals in 31 appearances).
- Mathys Tel has been directly involved in three goals after coming on as a substitute in the UEFA Champions League this season (two goals and one assist in 54 sub minutes) – no Bayern Munich player on record (since 2003-04) has ever been involved in more as a substitute in a single campaign.
- Joshua Kimmich has made 22 line-breaking passes in the final third to Kingsley Coman in the UEFA Champions League this season – the most from one player to a specific teammate.
Odds correct 1710 GMT (12/02/24)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
