In week three of a new column Joe Townsend gives his verdict of who is best to pick for Last Man Standing, doubling up as acca tips and swerves.
What Is Last Man Standing?
For the uninitiated it makes sense to start with describing what this game, and therefore this article, actually is.
For those already in WhatsApp groups where Last Man Standing chat dominates, sorry for wasting your time.
The concept is a simple one: pick one team to win each week and keep going until everyone else is knocked out.
Usually there's a buy-in in the same way a sweepstake works, so the bigger the group the bigger the payout.
Each week, you choose a team you think will win. If they win, you’re through. Lose or draw and you’re out.
You can only pick each team once, which is where the tactics come in.
Do you keep backing the strongest clubs every week until you run out and hope for the best? Look a week or two ahead and save a strong team for when there's very little on offer?
It seems easy to start with but choices soon dry up, and you're bound to have shock results in there too. Before you know it a few (or even just one) of your mates is rooting for everyone's teams to lose so they can buy back in for a second game.
How does Last Man Standing work?
- Decide the leagues included
- Set a deadline
- Each pick a team to win
- Winners survive
- No repeat selections
- Last man standing wins
Basically, don't get knocked out.
Each week I'll run through the obvious picks and make a case for or against.
As the season goes on, and people are more likely to have used up the obvious teams, I'll try and dig out a few more obscure options but the column itself won't change hugely to allow for new Last Man games.
For the purposes of this column we'll stick to matches in the Premier League and EFL until the FA Cup third round.
Who should I pick in Last Man Standing this week?
- Aston Villa vs ARSENAL 1/2
- MAN UTD 2/5 vs Ipswich
- WOLVES 1/2 vs Stoke
- SHEFF WED 4/5 vs Bromley
- BARNET 11/20 vs Cheltenham
- WALSALL 5/6 vs Accrington
On the surface the return of the Premier League failed to provide safe haven for heavily fancied teams, as early season continued to be a graveyard for short-priced favourites.
The 50% hit rate for the odds-on clubs on EFL opening weekend was blown out of the water, partly due to a bigger sample size and partly more price fluctuation closer to kick-off.
Of last weekend’s 26 shortest-priced teams only 10 (38%) won.
It's easy to be blinded by Manchester United’s terrible performance in defeat at Hull, and Liverpool’s failure to beat Newcastle, but in reality the top teams were most reliable.
The 10 aforementioned victors included Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea and Brighton, plus two of the Championship’s promotion favourites in Wolves and Southampton. Perhaps more surprisingly the other four all came in League Two.
ARSENAL are again the obvious, standout pick as they travel to a decimated Aston Villa on Monday, and while it may feel hard to trust MAN UTD following last weekend’s lethargic display they will surely respond emphatically against Ipswich.
WOLVES have followed their fortunate opening draw with Blackburn by comfortably winning at Preston and Sheffield Wednesday. Although Stoke pushed Southampton close last week the Potters have won just twice since February and lost six straight league games, conceding at least twice in all of them.
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY and Bromley meet in a clash between antepost second favourites for the title, and favourites for relegation. The Owls won at Leyton Orient on opening day and were a touch unfortunate to lose at home to Bradford. Bromley have needed a lot of luck to get their four points.
BARNET have made a flying start in League Two, sandwiching a 5-1 win the EFL Trophy with 3-1 wins at home to Salford and away to Shrewsbury.
WALSALL haven't conceded in their four games under new boss Lee Grant (W2 D2) and now host an Accrington team with one win in 18 and no win in nine - they have conceded twice in all of those too.
Teams to hold on to
There are a lot of traps out there this week.
Man City and Liverpool are real works in progress, Chelsea look further along under Xabi Alonso but face a strong Brighton team.
Down in League Two, big-spending Salford have had a tough start under Ange Postecoglou's former assistant Peter Cklamovski, losing to promotion rivals Barnet and Chesterfield. This may take a bit of time to work, so they're one to keep hold of, although Shrewsbury are so bad they will probably still win.
Teams to swerve
- MIDDLESBROUGH 7/10 vs West Brom
- SOUTHAMPTON 10/11 vs Millwall
- Watford vs WEST HAM 17/20
- BLACKPOOL 7/10 vs Peterborough
- STOCKPORT 4/5 vs Wycombe
- GRIMSBY 3/4 vs Fleetwood
- OLDHAM 5/6 vs Swindon
- YORK 8/13 vs Exeter
Middlesbrough against West Brom and Southampton at home to Millwall are complete avoids. I would put West Ham's trip to Watford in that category too as both sides have been so unpredictable in the opening couple of weeks, typified by the Hammers' winning 4-1 and the Hornets losing 5-1 in midweek.
There have been only two odds-on winners in League One so far this season and Blackpool need to show more to justify being priced as they are against an exciting young Peterborough side. Stockport and Wycombe are both good teams.
Neither Grimsby nor Fleetwood have conceded yet, and given the Mariners sold their top scorer in the summer that's an avoid.
Oldham against Swindon and York versus Exeter are simply matches I do not like, with the teams much more evenly matched than the odds suggest.
Odds correct 09:00 BST (27/8/26)
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