La Liga tips: Weekend best bets and previews
La Liga returns after the international break. Liam Kelly looks for more winners from the seventh round of fixtures, picking out best bets for the weekend.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
2pts Rayo Vallecano to beat Elche at 4/5 (SBK)
1.5pts Athletic Club to win to nil v Almeria at 6/5 (General)
1pt Over 2.5 Goals in Espanyol v Valencia at 21/20 (BetVictor, Parimatch)
Rayo Vallecano v Elche
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Rayo Vallecano 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Elche 17/4
Rayo Vallecano relied heavily on home advantage to avoid the drop last season, and, despite the small sample size thus far, it looks like home wins will be just as vital this term.
Andoni Iraola's side have allowed 9.4 expected goals against (xGA) away from home this season, with only one team conceding a higher amount as visitors, but this game will be played at Vallecas.
That one team, of course, is Elche.
They've allowed 13.5 xGA and created just 0.8 expected goals for (xGF) across their three away games this season, looking like the worst team in La Liga in the process.
Backing RAYO VALLECANO TO WIN amid home comforts is the way to go here then, even at odds-on.
Rayo haven't quite displayed their top form yet this campaign, despite performing well against much better teams than Elche. Monday night is a perfect opportunity to gain three points.
Score prediction: Rayo Vallecano 3-1 Elche (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 2230 BST (29/09/22)
Espanyol v Valencia
- Kick-off time: 13:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Espanyol 8/5 | Draw 23/10 | Valencia 17/10
Whether it’s a concentration on the past approaches of these two clubs or a simple misconception on how the two coaches want to play, both Espanyol and Valencia look to be underestimated by the bookmakers in terms of creating chances and scoring goals.
Gennaro Gattuso has installed a refreshingly attacking outlook at Valencia, with matches involving his side averaging 2.87 expected goals (xG) per game across their six La Liga fixtures.
Diego Martínez’s Espanyol participate in matches totaling an average of 3.30 xG per game this term, already playing a part in a few high-scoring thrillers in 2022/23.
With OVER 2.5 GOALS offered up at odds-against in places, it’s a value bet that shouldn’t be passed up.
Four of Espanyol’s six league fixtures have gone over, while three of Valencia’s six have done the same – their last three. Hopefully the two teams continue to entertain and provide us with a winner.
Score prediction: Espanyol 2-1 Valencia (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct 1530 BST (30/09/22)
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