La Liga tips: Weekend best bets and previews
Liam Kelly solely concentrates on the pick of the La Liga matches this weekend, selecting a range of best bets for the Madrid derby.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
2pts Under 2.5 Goals in Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid at 10/11 (General)
1.5pts Real Madrid to take the most corners v Atlético Madrid at 23/20 (BetVictor, Parimatch)
0.5pts Nahuel Molina to be shown a card in Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid at 5/1 (Sky Bet, 10bet, SportNation)
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: ITV4, Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Atlético Madrid 11/5 | Draw 12/5 | Real Madrid 6/5
A rather uninspiring weekend Spanish slate is saved by the Madrid derby.
Although it will be without possibly the best player on either team. Karim Benzema misses out through injury, severely hampering Real Madrid's attacking threat.
The numbers against Mallorca suggest Real did well in the absence of their talisman, winning 4-1 and creating 2.81 xG, but it took a solo stunner from Fede Valverde to spark the La Liga leaders into life.
That was versus a relegation contender. This is a city rival — albeit one that is struggling to find their identity.
Despite taking 10 points from their opening five league games, Atlético Madrid look completely out of sorts, unable to stop teams from creating chances, usually their bread and butter.
Still, the enhanced price of 10/11 about UNDER 2.5 GOALS makes appeal in a derby game between an über-defensive side and a team without the focal point of their attack.
Atléti's negativity in 2022/23 derives from their current formation.
Diego Simeone's 5-3-2 simply isn't working. They surrender possession far too easily and allow the opposition to build from the back without any pressure whatsoever.
Simeone's shape funnels teams into the wide areas, too, making REAL MADRID to take the MOST CORNERS value at odds-against in places.
Atlético Madrid have conceded more corners than they have gained in five of their seven competitive matches this season, and tied the corner count in another. With Vinícius Júnior in top form, Real carry a significant threat on the flanks.
That brings me to the final selection — NAHUEL MOLINA TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
At 5/1, I'm happy to punt on Atléti's right-back to find it difficult to contain Vinícius Júnior.
Molina has done well to generally stay out of trouble in a usually combative side so far this season, but this will be his toughest task yet. And in a derby, it's more than likely that it will get a little heated between the sides.
Don't be surprised if Vini Jr. is targeted.
Score prediction: Atlético Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1230 BST (17/09/22)
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