La Liga tips: Weekend best bets and previews
Liam Kelly looks for more winners from the fifth round of La Liga matches, picking out three best bets for the weekend.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
4pts Barcelona 16+ total shots v Cádiz at 8/11 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals in Girona v Real Valladolid at 4/6 (bet365, BetVictor)
1.5pts Real Madrid to win to nil v Mallorca at 59/50 (Unibet)
Real Madrid v Mallorca
- Kick-off time: 13:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Real Madrid 2/9 | Draw 21/4 | Mallorca 11/1
Real Madrid will have to do without star striker Karim Benzema for a period of time, a big blow to the title favourites.
This week, however, they should be able to manage in their talisman’s absence, facing a Mallorca side that will likely be in a relegation scrap.
Four points from four games should be a good enough rate for the Balearic Islanders to stay up, but this represents their toughest task yet, and by some margin.
Creating chances has been a bit of an issue in Mallorca’s league fixtures thus far, too, averaging 1.14 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
Up against a team that might offer more protection without Benzema, Mallorca will struggle to test Thibaut Courtois, making REAL MADRID TO WIN TO NIL a selection at odds-against.
Although Real conceded in each of their La Liga matches, they weathered a Celtic storm in the week rather well, keeping a clean sheet in the Champions League.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side were excellent from a defensive perspective in their only other game at the building site that is the Santiago Bernabéu, limiting Real Betis to just 0.38 xG in a 2-1 victory.
Back the home team to pick up another win here, without conceding this time.
Score prediction: Real Madrid 2-0 Mallorca (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1730 BST (08/09/22)
Girona v Real Valladolid
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Girona 6/5 | Draw 11/5 | Real Valladolid 12/5
Real Valladolid took advantage of a welcome ease in schedule last time out, beating Almeria 1-0 thanks to a late winner from Shon Weissman (xG: RVA 2.12 – 0.79 ALM).
Indeed, a wise man would accept that as their correct level considering they played Villarreal, Sevilla and Barcelona in their opening three La Liga games.
Sevilla and Barca created plenty of chances when Valladolid were visitors, but Girona should be easier to defend against at the Montilivi.
Girona’s possession-based approach in a three-at-the-back formation means we could be in for a rather uneventful Friday night, making UNDER 2.5 GOALS of interest.
Clinical finishing and an own goal helped Girona beat a passive Getafe 3-1 in their home opener, but they struggled to threaten Celta Vigo in their other game as hosts, recording just 0.78 xG in a 1-0 defeat.
They did keep it tight at the back, however, which bodes well for a low-scoring game in Catalunya.
Score prediction: Girona 1-0 Real Valladolid (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1730 BST (08/09/22)
Cádiz v Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Cádiz 14/1 | Draw 21/4 | Barcelona 1/5
Barcelona make all kinds of appeal against a Cádiz side that look destined for the drop.
Saturday’s hosts are struggling to keep the ball and can’t get near the opposition goal at present, registering only 2.14 xG in four La Liga fixtures.
Still, backing Barca to win with consummate ease is passed over after a midweek round of Champions League fixtures. Instead, settling for the very generous 8/11 about BARCELONA to attempt 16+ TOTAL SHOTS away from home is the way to go.
I’m stunned a line is set at 15.5 given how good the new-look Barcelona are.
Rotation might well be made for this match-up, but the Catalan giants are incredibly deep after a busy transfer window, especially in attacking areas.
They’ve recorded shot totals of 21, 15, 24 and 18 this term, which includes trips to Real Sociedad and Sevilla.
Consequently, logging 16 against the worst team in the league currently shouldn’t be a problem.
Score prediction: Cádiz 0-3 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct 1730 BST (08/09/22)
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