Sporting Life's best bets for this weekend's La Liga action
Sporting Life's best bets for the second weekend of the Spanish La Liga season

La Liga betting tips: Atlético Madrid v Mallorca, Real Sociedad v Real Madrid


Liam Kelly returns to bring you the best bets for the weekend round of fixtures in Spain, holding a positive P&L in this season's La Liga column.


Football betting tips: La Liga

1.5pts Atlético Madrid to beat Mallorca with -1 goal handicap at Evens (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals in Real Sociedad v Real Madrid at Evens (10bet, SportNation)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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Real Sociedad v Real Madrid

Real Sociedad lost only their second match of the La Liga season last time out, beaten 1-0 by Espanyol in a scrappy game of few chances (xG: ESP 0.43 - 1.38 RSO).

That has been the case for many of their fixtures recently, with five of the last eight matches involving Real Sociedad failing to breach the 2.50 xG mark — just one of the reasons behind a selection of UNDER 2.5 GOALS here.

Real Sociedad recent form

Additionally, only six (!) goals have been scored in seven league matches at the Anoeta this season, an astoundingly low total even allowing for the fact that Real Sociedad's home is an incredibly tough place to visit.

A substantial underperformance on xG numbers in those seven fixtures should be acknowledged (six goals from 14 xG), but an average of 1.99 xG per game at the Anoeta still points toward the under.

Granted, clear league leaders Real Madrid - La Liga's highest scorers - are the opposition, but they look a little less impressive than their results of late.

Despite winning six of their last seven, Carlo Ancelotti's side have only posted a +2.82 expected goal difference (xGD), hinting that their games are much more closely-matched than scorelines suggest.

If Real Sociedad can follow suit and also keep a fixture against Real Madrid close, it will likely be low-scoring.

Score prediction: Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

WHAT IS EXPECTED GOALS? USE xG TO INCREASE PROFITS IN FOOTBALL BETTING

Atlético Madrid v Mallorca

Atlético Madrid appear to have kicked into gear in recent weeks, at least in La Liga, beginning to fire from an attacking perspective and limiting opposition chances in typical fashion.

They now sit second in La Liga after gaining 10 points from their last four domestic fixtures, posting expected goals for (xGF) totals of 3.31, 2.52, 1.45 and 3.67 in those matches.

With that improvement in mind, alongside the obvious confidence we can have in a Diego Simeone defence, ATLETICO MADRID TO WIN WITH A -1 GOAL HANDICAP makes appeal here.

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Understandably, Mallorca don't travel well in La Liga, winning just one of their seven away games this term.

Their underlying numbers are perhaps even more worrying than the five points gained on the road, averaging 0.90 xGF and 1.87 xGA per game.

As a result, this should be a comfortable victory for Atléti, making the Evens available for the hosts to win by a two-goal margin or more is the smart play.

Score prediction: Atlético Madrid 3-0 Mallorca (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)


La Liga best bets

  • 1.5pts Atlético Madrid to beat Mallorca with -1 goal handicap at Evens (Sky Bet, PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook)
  • 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals in Real Sociedad v Real Madrid at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

Odds correct at 2330 BST (02/12/21)

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Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

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