After going 2/2 last weekend, Liam Kelly continues to look for more winners in La Liga, taking a particular interest in El Gran Derbi.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
1pt Erik Lamela to be shown a card in Real Betis v Sevilla at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt Under 0.5 First Half Goals in Real Betis v Sevilla at 7/4 (General)
Real Betis v Sevilla
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Real Betis 11/10 | Draw 23/10 | Sevilla 5/2
If you're not familiar, El Gran Derbi is one of the highlights of the La Liga season. The city of Seville comes to a complete standstill.
Considering the stakes of such a fixture, we can expect a tight affair, especially when we look at the recent numbers of Real Betis and Sevilla.
As noted in last week's column, Real Betis are swiftly losing their label of great entertainers, but their newfound defensive solidity is serving Sunday's hosts well in the top-four race and leading to low-scoring games.
Matches involving Manuel Pellegrini's side have averaged only 1.88 goals and 2.15 expected goals (xG) per game across their last eight.
Jorge Sampaoli has slightly improved the Sevilla defence since his appointment last month, but the visitors to the Benito Villamarin are struggling to create chances, averaging 1.08 expected goals for (xGF) per game across his short tenure.
With the above in mind, UNDER 0.5 FIRST HALF GOALS is the play that makes appeal in this match-up, available at 7/4 generally
Four of Real Betis' last five matches have been goalless at half-time, while three of Sevilla's last six opening 45 minutes have ended under on the same line.
Given the sheer weight of this fixture in the city, it would be no surprise for the great derby to be nervy — at least in the first half.
You only have to look as far as the 'TO BE SHOWN A CARD' market to see how chippy this contest could be. Looking at those odds, it's a surprise to see ERIK LAMELA so far down the list.
Granted, he's not a sure starter under Sampaoli, but at 6/4, Lamela's fiery nature makes him a solid bet for a booking.
In just 1,152 minutes in La Liga and the Champions League this season, Lamela has committed 33 fouls, received six yellow cards and been sent off once.
A derby away from home is a good environment for Lamela to continue his rash ways.
Score prediction: Real Betis 1-1 Sevilla (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1030 BST (04/11/22)
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