Football betting tips: La Liga
5pts Atlético Madrid to win La Liga without Barcelona and Real Madrid at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
3pts Barcelona to win La Liga at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair, Unibet)
1.5pts e.w. Rodrygo to be La Liga top goalscorer at 18/1 (Betway - 1/4 odds 1,2,3)
0.5pts Atlético Madrid to win La Liga at 12/1 (BetVictor, Parimatch)
0.5pts Jude Bellingham to score 15 or more La Liga goals at 20/1 (bet365)
Barcelona bounced back to win La Liga with ease last season, a perhaps necessary outcome after the pulling of many ‘levers’ by club president Joan Laporta in a tumultuous 2022 summer transfer window.
The waters are much calmer on the Barceloneta beach this year, though.
There are seemingly far fewer transactions to be made, player registration problems to be manoeuvred and, frankly, positions to be filled — perfectly understandable following a campaign where Barca finished 10 points clear of rivals Real Madrid, conceding just 20 goals across the 38 league games.
Consequently, the prices available in the market for 2023/24 La Liga title winner are surprising.
La Liga Winner 2023/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- Evens - Real Madrid
- 11/8 - Barcelona
- 7/1 - Atlético Madrid
- 33/1 bar
Odds correct at 1130 (09/08/23)
Barca the bet to retain title
BARCELONA should not be bigger than Real Madrid in my mind, which makes the 7/5 on offer obvious value to me.
At odds-on in places, Real Madrid need significant improvement to make up the difference, especially after the departure of Karim Benzema. The addition of Jude Bellingham is, of course, welcome, but he joins a midfield that was already stacked with quality.
While they may finish a lot closer this season, Real have a job on their hands to win back the title, even if Barca are not playing at the Camp Nou and have lost the output of Ousmane Dembélé.
After all, it’s not out of the question that Xavi’s side can be just as good. The vastly experienced İlkay Gündoğan and Iñigo Martínez are excellent signings, and it would be quite unfortunate if Barcelona had the same number of injuries as they did last term.
Are Atlético Madrid challengers?
There is a chance that ATLÉTICO MADRID are more involved in the title race this season.
A slow start to the 2022/23 campaign ensured they were never it in last season, but it could be argued that they were the best team in La Liga after the World Cup.
Atléti had a record of W16 D5 L3 after the break in domestic play, looking much more like a Diego Simeone side. If Antoine Griezmann returns in the same form, which was best-player-in-the-league level last term, and Atléti can find him a solid partner, they can make a surprise push.
Indeed, Atléti are worth a small bet at a generous 12/1 for the title.
A much more substantial bet can be made on ATLÉTICO MADRID TO WIN LA LIGA WITHOUT BARCELONA AND REAL MADRID, though.
They’ve made smart signings in areas of need in the summer and hold a huge advantage in resource over any club that isn’t named Barcelona or Real Madrid. Atléti covered the selection pretty easily in 2022/23 after what I would consider and extremely shoddy start.
Available at 5/6 with Sky Bet, adding this to the staking plan makes just as much sense as it did last year, albeit at a slightly shorter price.
It’s difficult to envisage any of the three teams already mentioned missing out on a place in the top four, but there is a typically open market for what is likely to be the last spot with the bookmakers.
Real Sociedad may have been a bet for me had David Silva not suffered an injury that led to his impromptu retirement. He was extremely important to a club that has to fight on many tough fronts next season, including the Champions League after finishing fourth last term.
They still have a very strong squad, however.
Robin Le Normand, Martin Zubimendi and Takefusa Kubo are all set to stay despite interest from big clubs, while Mikel Merino signed a new contract earlier in the summer.
Captain Mikel Oyarzabal and striker Umar Sadiq can be expected to play far more minutes after suffering injuries last season, too.
Muchas gracias…fútbol pic.twitter.com/HoB6TPojAd
— David Silva (@21LVA) July 27, 2023
Perhaps their Basque rivals, Athletic Club, are now a backable price for a top four finish, but I'm happy to sit that one out at this stage.
The same can be said for the relegation market, which currently offers little value given the moves that could still be made by candidates for the drop.
Who will win the Pichichi?
Benzema’s departure from Real Madrid leaves Robert Lewandowski as a huge favourite in La Liga’s top goalscorer market, and understandably so given his numbers last season.
Lewandowski won the 2022/23 Pichichi with 23 goals, four more than Benzema and seven more than the next best (Joselu). The Polish striker also led the league by some distance in expected goals (xG), making a second successive top scorer award the most likely outcome.
La Liga Top Goalscorer 2023/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 8/15 - Robert Lewandowski
- 12/1 - Antoine Griezmann
- 14/1 - Vinícius Júnior
- 20/1 - Álvaro Morata
- 20/1 - Joselu
- 20/1 - Rodrygo
- 25/1 bar
Odds correct at 1130 (09/08/23)
However, the price is too short to get involved when considering Lewandowski is almost 35-years-old and suffered from relatively patchy form last term. Still, Barca’s star striker should win, so plumping for each-way bets looks the play.
Unfortunately, the offering from the betting industry in this regard is pitiful, with a few firms putting up a win only market and just one (Betway) offering an each-way choice — to three places at that.
Still, Real Madrid’s RODRYGO makes the staking plan as an each-way at 18/1.
The void of Benzema’s goals will need to be filled and the Brazilian can certainly help in that area, likely to play up top with Carlo Ancelotti forced to shuffle his pack.
Rodrygo started just 25 league games for Real last season and scored only nine goals, seven short of place money on these same terms (1/4 odds 1,2,3), but the 22-year-old can improve on that number.
Real’s winger certainly doesn’t strike me as a terrible finisher, so I’d be more encouraged than disappointed that Rodrygo logged 16.11 xG in his 2,579 minutes played.
Only two players recorded a higher non-penalty xG total (15.31 non-pen xG) in the 2022/23 La Liga campaign – Lewandowski and Benzema. His five Champions League goals from 4.39 xG last term somewhat eases the underperformance worries.
Ancelotti’s probable move to a diamond midfield with Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior ahead of it also leads to a speculative punt on JUDE BELLINGHAM to score 15 OR MORE GOALS in the 2023/24 La Liga campaign.
Bellingham is set to play at the top of Ancelotti’s diamond and I have no doubts that the England international can shine there.
At 20/1 to score 15 or more league goals, Bellingham rates a bet in a more advanced position than he’s ever played for a team that will undoubtedly score plenty.
La Liga 2023/24 best bets
- 5pts Atlético Madrid to win La Liga without Barcelona and Real Madrid at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
- 3pts Barcelona to win La Liga at 7/5 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet)
- 1.5pts e.w. Rodrygo to be La Liga top goalscorer at 18/1 (Betway 1/4 1,2,3)
- 0.5pts Atlético Madrid to win La Liga at 12/1 (BetVictor, Parimatch)
- 0.5pts Jude Bellingham to score 15 or more La Liga goals at 20/1 (bet365)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (09/08/23)
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