Juventus welcome Sevilla in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final. James Cantrill picks out his best bet.
Up until recently, winning the Europa League looked like Juventus only route into next season's Champions League.
They have been re-awarded the 15 points that were deducted in January which has hoisted the Old Lady up too second in Serie A, meaning, in Italy, they lead the chase to qualify for Europe’s premier competition, excluding runaway leaders Napoli of course.
With so much hinging on Champions League qualification, the reversal of the points deduction will no doubt have relieved some pressure for Thursday’s hosts, and with the shackles off, we could see them at their best.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
The question is, how good are Juve at their best?
In the six games since their points were returned, Juve have won, drawn and lost two, exiting the Coppa Italia at the hands of Inter and progressing to the Europa League semi-finals over that period.
Massimiliano Allegri’s side have won their last two on the spin, but have failed to convince, losing the xG battle against Atalanta (1.22 - 1.17) and edging past lowly Lecce.
Either side of the World Cup, Juve only failed to win five games over a period of 23, a streak underpinned by fortune and moments of quality.
Their Champions League exit was the catalyst for it, sparking a run of five straight wins during which they did not concede, despite shipping an xGA of 2.74. Napoli put an end to it with a 5-1 thrashing.
As for the visitors, under Jorge Sampaoli, Sevilla hovered around the bottom end of La Liga.
His successor, Jose Luis Mendilibar, guided Los Nervionenses through their tie with Manchester United and they have won five of the six games since.
In Europe, they have failed to convince away from home, yet to win a game outside of Andalusia.
In six games on the road, across the Champions League and Europa League, Sevilla are yet to win.
Interestingly, only their most recent trip to Old Trafford has seen three or more goals scored. That game ended 2-2, each of the visitors' goals were own goals, generating an xG of 0.74.
Siding with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ has clicked in two thirds of those games, and looks the best way into this clash.
Juventus v Sevilla best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both teams to score 'no' at 3/4 (Betvictor)
Score prediction: Juventus 1-0 Sevilla (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1800 BST (09/05/23)
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