Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 225pts | Returned 221.54pts | P/L -3.46pts | ROI -1%
Football betting tips: EFL
MK Dons vs Bromley (Saturday, 12:30)
2.5pts Bromley +0.5 Asian handicap at 21/20 (bet365)
Sheffield United vs Hull (Saturday, 15:00)
1pt Hull to win at 16/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Hull to win from behind at 17/1 (BetVictor)
Anytime Goalscorer Trixie (Kicks off Saturday 12:30)
1pt (Total stake) Oli McBurnie, Jayden Wareham & Lee Ndlovu anytime Trixie at 76/1 (Sky Bet)
I can start this weekend's column with a good ol’ fashioned moan - a luxury I haven't been afforded due to the lack of winners recently.
Heading into Easter Monday, I hadn’t tipped a winner in three weeks (nine bets) and had only landed one of the last 20 bets advised. Yikes.
Two of four won on Monday though, at long last. One at evens, the other at 13/2. Sure, it was a relief, but the manner in which the big 66/1 punt lost left a sour taste.
The tip in question was each team to get a red card in Portsmouth’s 2-2 draw with Oxford.
Sure, Connor Ogilvie’s red was extremely soft but then Oxford’s Brodie Spence should have got a second yellow and by referee Josh Smith’s own low standards, perhaps Michal Helik was lucky to stay on the pitch for a hefty tackle late on as well.
Oh well, there’s always next time.
This weekend’s picks can be categorised as a NAP, next best, longshot and then the usual anytime goalscorer Trixie.
MK Dons vs Bromley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
BROMLEY are a big price to win on the road again this weekend.
In their last four away games, the Ravens were 3/1 at Barnet and Grimsby and odds-against in trips to Barrow (23rd) and Newport (22nd). Granted, they only won one of those matches but their trips to Blundell Park and the Hive both ended 1-1.
Ordinarily, I’d be looking to back the League Two leaders to take three points but this recent form coupled with the calibre of the opposition on Saturday and I think backing them at +0.5 on the ASIAN HANDICAP is the bet at 21/20.
This is essentially the same as taking them double chance but at slightly bigger odds.
Bromley have only lost five times all season (W23 D14) and have only tasted defeat in one of their last 24 league fixtures as they inch closer to promotion to League One.
The League Two leaders only need four points from the remaining four games but could go up this weekend if Cambridge beat Notts County and Colchester beat Swindon.
Saturday’s trip to MK Dons won’t be a cakewalk though. The hosts are second in the table but are winless in four and against fellow top four sides this season they are winless (D3 L2).
Sheffield United vs Hull
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
HULL’s price TO WIN at Bramall Lane looks big for a few reasons.
For one, Sheffield United’s form is terrible. They are winless in six, losing half of those and have only won one of their last eight.
This haul of six points from a possible 24 is why the Blades' season has fizzled out. They're on the beach now, nine points clear of the relegation zone and 15 off the play-offs.
In stark contrast, the Tigers have it all to play for.
They're fifth, four points clear of seventh, but they have the joint-worst goal-difference (+5) of those competing for a top six finish.
Like Saturday’s opponents though, Hull aren’t in the best nick, only winning four of their last 13 games in all competitions.
Nonetheless, they won the reverse and have a large contingency of former Blades. Oliver McBurnie, John Egan, Regan Slater, John Lundstram and Kieran Dowell. And I reckon some of those players would take great pride in sticking it to Wilder.
At 16/5, my money's on the visitors.
I also think it's worth having a go on HULL TO WIN FROM BEHIND at 17/1 with BetVictor.
It’s clicked for the Blades opponents in three of their last eight games and Saturday’s hosts have dropped the most points from winning positions in the second tier this term.
Anytime Goalscorer Trixie
- Plymouth vs Exeter: Jayden Wareham at 3/1 (Saturday, 12:30)
- Sheffield United vs Hull: Oli McBurnie at 5/2 (Saturday, 15:00)
- Cambridge vs Notts County: Lee Ndlovu at 9/2 (Saturday, 15:00)
The first leg of the ANYTIME GOALSCORER TRIXIE comes from one Saturday's early kick-offs in League One, where play-off chasing Plymouth host relegation stricken Exeter in a huge Devon derby.
The Pilgrims head into the weekend two points off sixth spot and have only lost one of their last seven (W5). They’ve been pretty formidable at Home Park recently too (W6 D2 L2) but they’ve only kept one clean sheet across their last seven.
That’s all the encouragement I need to take Exeter’s JAYDEN WAREHAM at 3/1.
His brace against Doncaster on Easter Monday ended a run of six without a goal, taking him to 18 for the season and three off League One’s top goalscorer.
Exeter are two points from safety and winless in seven on the road but have scored 14 times in their 10 away games since Boxing Day.
Back to Bramall Lane for the second leg where OLI MCBURNIE looks a good price at 5/2 to haunt his former employers.
He’s scored 13 times in the Championship this season and is due one having failed to net in his last eight appearances.
It would be typical for McBurnie to end his drought at his old stomping ground. My understanding is he enjoyed his time at the Lane and wanted to come back but the Blades owners had other ideas in the summer.
Sheffield United haven’t kept a clean sheet in six games and have conceded in each of their 10 games in S2 since the turn of the year.
The third leg of the Trixie comes from League Two where there’s a big game in the race for automatic promotion.
Cambridge (4th) host Notts County (3rd) with the U’s two points behind Saturday’s opponents with a game in-hand.
It’s a battle between solid defence and free-flowing attack as Cambridge have conceded the fewest goals in the division (31) and County have scored the second most goals (71).
At the prices available, I am siding with the Magpies attack to prevail. It’s just a question of who to back and with Alassana Jatta suspended, it could be Matthew Dennis or LEE NDLOVU or both leading the line at the Abbey.
Dennis is 7/2 to score anytime and has a goals per 90 average of 0.45, Ndlovu is 9/2 with a goals per 90 average of 0.32. So, both are value.
Dennis has only started four of the last seven and failed to score in any across that sample and Ndlovu hasn’t scored in five and has only started two of those.
I think Martin Paterson might favour the physicality of Ndlovu here. The frontman was good against Newport on Easter Monday and without the luxury of line-ups, he’s the bet.
County have netted in 35 of their 42 games and the U’s have conceded in all four of their games against sides above them.
Odds correct at 21:00 BST (09/04/26)
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