Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 202.75pts | Returned 203.57pts | P/L +0.82pts | ROI 0%
Football betting tips: EFL, FA Cup
Mansfield vs Arsenal (Saturday - 12:15)
1pt Jon Russell to score anytime at 14/1 (bet365)
Grimsby vs Bromley (Saturday - 12:30)
3pts Bromley +0.25 Asian handicap at 39/40 (bet365)
MK Dons vs Harrogate (Saturday - 15:00)
0.5pt Harrogate to win at 15/2 (bet365)
Fulham vs Southampton (Sunday - 12:00)
1pt James Bree to score anytime at 10/1 (General)
Leeds vs Norwich (Sunday - 16:30)
1pt Anis Ben Slimane to score anytime at 7/1 (bet365)
Anytime Goalscorer Trixie (Kicks-off Saturday - 12:15)
1pt (Total Stake) Jon Russell, James Bree & Anis Ben Slimane at 899/1 (bet365)
It’s FA Cup fifth round weekend.
Here’s where it begins to get serious. One win away from the quarters. The remaining sides should act accordingly.
The 16 clubs left in the competition are four wins away from getting their hands on the trophy and two wins away from a trip to Wembley.
Eleven of those are Premier League teams but there are three all top-flight affairs this weekend so there’s hope for the little guys yet.
That said, it’s no longer a chance for the bigger teams to divvy out some minutes to their fringe players but a real opportunity for silverware. And barring perhaps Wrexham and Southampton - who are in the thick of a battle for a Championship play-off spot - the FA Cup is the sole focus of the EFL clubs left in the competition.
It should be a good weekend.
I’ve gone for an audacious goalscorer Trixie in the cup but my strongest fancy of the weekend comes in of League Two’s early kick-offs.
Also I am away next week so there'll be no column which is probably a blessing based on recent results.
Grimsby vs Bromley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Top of the table Bromley head to play-off chasing Grimsby on Saturday lunchtime.
The League Two leaders are the only unbeaten side on their own patch in England’s top four divisions (W10 D8) but they rarely get beaten on their travels either. They’ve won 31 points in 17 away games (W9 D4 L4).
Andy Woodman’s side have not tasted defeat on the road since the end of November and two of their defeats came at Cambridge (2nd) and Swindon (4th) which certainly fall into the tough places to go category.
I’m not so sure Blundell Park falls into that category.
Grimsby have dropped points in nine of 17 home games this term and not won any of their four home games against sides above them in the table.
At 39/40, backing BROMLEY +0.25 ASIAN HANDICAP is the bet.
Half our stake goes on Bromley +0.5 (essentially double chance), the other half goes on Bromley +0.0 (essentially draw no bet) and the only way the bet loses is if Bromley do.
MK Dons vs Harrogate
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
HARROGATE are bottom of League Two on 27 points and head to pre-season title favourites MK Dons on Saturday afternoon.
I fancy the visitors TO WIN though.
The majority of their points have come on their travels (15) but that’s only a small part of the reasoning.
The Sulphurites are actually unbeaten in five league games (W2 D3), taking nine points or a third of their overall tally for the campaign. Impressive considering they’ve hosted Bromley (1st), Cambridge (2nd) and gone to Chesterfield (6th) over that period.
Saturday’s visitors made some major moves in the January transfer window and boy is it paying dividends, I don’t think this has been factored into the price though.
They're priced as the stinky Sulphurites, not the new and improved Harrogate 2.0.
As for MK Dons, they’re unbeaten in nine (W6) and could move into second place with a win. So yeah, I am well aware this could spectacularly blow up in my face but the visitors are worth a go at the prices available.
Anytime Goalscorer Trixie
- Mansfield vs Arsenal: Jon Russell at 14/1 (Saturday, 12:15)
- Fulham vs Southampton: James Bree at 13/2 (Sunday, 12:00)
- Leeds vs Norwich: Anis Ben Slimane at 7/1 (Sunday, 16:30)
I’ve got three goalscorers from the FA Cup fifth round, siding with players from some of the underdogs.
Given the prices, I’ll be taking the singles as well as the ANYTIME GOALSCORER TRIXIE below.
First stop is Mansfield who host Arsenal and JON RUSSELL is 14/1 to score.
He's a player that divides opinion but he started in the win at Turf Moor and has played from the off in three of the Stags four games since, netting a brace against Wimbledon.
Russell’s scored 16 times since the beginning of last campaign, that’s a goals per 90 average of 0.23.
His side are 33/1 to beat Arsenal and his manager Nigel Clough said the Premier League leaders could ‘demolish’ Mansfield on Saturday.
The Stags put four past Sheffield United and came from behind to beat Burnley in the two previous rounds though so they could bloody the Gunners nose.
Next to Craven Cottage where Fulham host Southampton.
The Saints have only lost once since the third round (W8 D2) and have netted in all of those 11 games.
JAMES BREE didn’t start for the Saints in their win over Leicester in the last round but came of the bench to score the winner in extra time.
He’s been in fine goalscoring form since getting recalled from Charlton, netting in two of seven league starts, including each of their last two games, and had eight efforts across his last three Championship appearances.
Looking at his heat map, Bree’s basically playing as a right winger and he could have some joy against Fulham, who haven’t kept a clean sheet since the turn of the year (13 games).
In this competition, the Cottages have beaten two second tier opponents but conceded in both games.
The final stop is Elland Road where Leeds welcome Norwich.
Defeat in midweek against Sunderland leaves Daniel Farke’s side three points above the relegation zone in the top flight. Maybe this game isn’t a huge priority.
At 11/2, it’s unlikely they will go down but Farke did make seven changes to his team in the last round and eight changes in the round before.
Leeds beat Derby and Birmingham, both of the second tier, and conceded in both games.
So, I fancy a Norwich goalscorer, but second guessing Philippe Clement could be tricky as he made six changes ahead of the last round and has a wealth of attacking options.
A delicious assist from Anis Ben Slimane 😍
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) February 14, 2026
Ball control like a magnet 🧲 pic.twitter.com/kkFchhOONy
ANIS BEN SLIMANE has fallen slightly out of favour recently, not starting any of the last two but came off the bench to net at Leicester in the Canaries last game.
In fact, Slimane’s only started one of the last four but he’s got two assists and that goal in limited game time.
All-told, he’s scored five times and set up two in 14 appearances this term and can be backed at 7/1 to score anytime.
Keep tabs on the line-ups though.
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (05/03/26)
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