- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 115.5pts | Returned 93.66pts | P/L -21.84pts | ROI -18.9%
Football betting tips: Premier League and EFL
Saturday 15:00
1pt Youri Tielemans to be carded in Aston Villa vs Southampton at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Tielemans and Tyler Dibling to be carded at 19/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Norman Bassette to be carded in Millwall vs Coventry at 5/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bassette and Hutchinson to be carded at 20/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bassette and Hutchinson to be sent off at 1000/1 (bet365)
1pt Marc Roberts to score anytime in Barnsley vs Birmingham at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Crawley to win to nil vs Stevenage at 17/4 (Betvictor)
1pt Fraser Horsfall to score anytime in Stockport vs Exeter at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Fraser Horsfall to score 2+ goals at 250/1 (Sky Bet)
Sunday 15:00
0.5pt Femi Seriki to score anytime in West Brom vs Sheff Utd at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
I am running out of ways to say the column is doing crap but that’s the bottom line and I cannot shirk away from the snowballing P/L.
That’s the issue with touting big odds, more often than not you are made to look like a moron when it blows up in your face and doesn’t go the way you were expecting it to go. You can’t legislate for James Norwood missing an open goal from a yard out (as he did last weekend) and that’s the way it’s been going recently.
To change approach now and abandon hope would be stupid, we’ve just gotta hunker down and stick to it. The most frustrating part is, we are consistently beating closing lines but as long as we continue to do that, we’ll get the rub of the green eventually.
Aston Villa vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 13/2
TYLER DIBLING returns from suspension for the trip to Villa Park and he is a foul drawing machine.
In eight starts he has drawn 20 fouls and although he usually starts on the right wing, the majority are committed by the opposition's left sided central midfielder.
Against Brighton, Yasin Ayari committed six but a card somehow eluded him. The exact same thing happened at Bournemouth where Ryan Christie committed four fouls and didn’t get a card. Mateo Kovacic committed two fouls and was carded for Manchester City, both Kobbie Mainoo and Christian Eriksen were booked for Manchester United and Jack Taylor was carded off the bench for Ipswich.
YOURI TIELEMANS should be in this LCM slot for Aston Villa on Saturday and his price TO BE CARDED is worth a poke at 11/2, he has already equalled last seasons Premier League tally (3).
Dibling gives as good as he gets and with a favourable referee appointment (Darren Bond - 4.67 cards per game this season), coupling him TO BE CARDED with Tielemans provides some interest.
Millwall vs Coventry
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 13/2
NORMAN BASSETTE is pure box office.
The frontman has only played 381 minutes in the league but has racked up four cards, three of which came for ‘arguments’.
He certainly knows how to get under the skin of opponents, just ask Anel Ahmedhodzic, who fell for his housery and was sent off in the 2-2 draw between Coventry and Sheffield United.
Ahmedhodžić was sent off for violent conduct against Norman Bassette in the first-half 🟥😬 pic.twitter.com/wiQXfBbkQ6
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) November 23, 2024
If Bassette does get the nod at the Den, his antics will not be well received. The 5/1 about him TO BE CARDED is a must but I’ll also be doubling it up with a SHAUN HUTCHINSON CARD as well as a small bet on the pair to be SENT OFF for good measure.
- CLICK HERE to back Norman Bassette to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to bet on Millwall vs Coventry with Sky Bet
Jake Cooper is an injury doubt for the hosts and Japhet Tanganga is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season in midweek. This should mean veteran defender Hutchinson slots into the heart of defence and I’d assume he’ll opt for a no nonsense approach to dealing with Bassette.
Thomas Bramall is the referee and although he cannot be described as card happy, he has averaged four cards per game in the second tier since the beginning of last season.
Barnsley vs Birmingham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 5/2 | Draw 5/2 | Away 17/20
Birmingham have conceded six times from set pieces this season which is exactly 40% of their total, a percentage only Exeter (41.2%) can top, but more on them later.
This would suggest Barnsley’s best chance of scoring on Saturday will come from dead ball situations, an avenue the Reds have exploited nine times already this season.
MARC ROBERTS is their main threat scoring four times in the league and cup and his price of 14/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME certainly appeals against his former employers.
Crawley vs Stevenage
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 2/1 | Away 5/4
CRAWLEY have turned a corner. It may not look like it at first glance taking 12 points in 11 games under Rob Elliott but his side have only lost one of the last seven League One games.
The schedule has been tough as well.
The Reds drew 2-2 vs Huddersfield, beat Rotherham 1-0 and Lincoln 3-0 over that period, limiting the opposition to very little. The trio had three ‘big chances’ (xG over 0.30) between them and averaged 0.13 xG per shot.
Stevenage head to Broadfield on Saturday, a notoriously toothless side especially on the road.
In seven away games, Alex Revell’s men have only won once, scored just three times and had just three shots with an xG value higher than 0.30.
Siding with the hosts TO WIN TO NIL Saturday looks like a big old price to me.
Stockport vs Exeter
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 19/5
FRASER HORSFALL again?
Well, the centre back is 18/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME at the weekend in a game his Stockport side are 3/5 to win against one of the worst set piece sides in the division. So, yeah I’m tipping him again.
Exeter, like Birmingham, have not conceded many goals but the vast majority have come from dead ball situations.
The underlying data suggests Exeter have been very fortunate to have conceded as few as they have and only two teams have conceded a higher xGA from set pieces than them (7.96) in League One.
That’s not all though. Six defenders have scored against them this term, four of those goals have come from set pieces and two have come in the last three league games.
Joe Low scored for Wycombe in midweek and Wrexham’s Max Cleworth scored the opener for Wrexham.
So, there is definitely some method to the madness and Horsfall’s price TO SCORE 2+ GOALS is worth sticking with just in case.
West Brom vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 7/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 19/10
There is every chance Chris Wilder opts for the more conservative Alfie Gilchrist at the Hawthorns on Sunday. I hope FEMI SERIKI gets the nod though, his performances certainly warrant a spot in the XI and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME looks big.
I was surprised to see the galavanting full back has only started one Championship game this season, he must be making an impact.
Seriki was brought on at half-time in the Steel City Derby and played a major part in the shift in momentum. He got another 45 minutes against Coventry, played the 90 against Oxford and another 45 minutes against Sunderland on Friday.
Watching him, his attacking output is obvious but it is only recently the numbers have started to reflect this.
Seriki has notched up four shots in his last two appearances and an xG of 0.29. I doubt Wilder will trust him from the off against West Brom but this is certainly an angle to keep tabs on in the near future.
Odds correct at 1350 GMT (06/12/24)
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