- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 164pts | Returned 156.46pts | P/L -7.54pts | ROI -4%
Football betting tips: EFL
Wednesday 20:00
1pt Tom Davies to be carded in Sunderland vs Sheff Utd at 11/4 (bet365)
0.5pts Davies and Patrick Roberts to be carded at 16/1 (bet365)
I wish those pesky keepers would actually get booked. They cost us some points at the weekend despite their teams (West Brom, Wolves and Hull) all picking up results against the odds.
To be fair, I don’t think the stoppers are entirely the issue, it is the referees and I need to start putting more importance on the official appointments because it became very apparent we need brazen, no nonsense whistleblowers as well as master of dark art keepers for these bets.
Nonetheless, you cannot complain at 9/2 and 25/1 winners and with the games coming thick and fast, I am sticking with the player card markets on New Year's Day alongside some goalscorers and the 1x2.
Let's have it.
Sunderland vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 13/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 21/10
The last time Sunderland and Sheffield United squared off there was only one goal but 10 cards, two of which red.
The Black Cats were desperately unlucky to leave Bramall Lane empty handed; Chris Mepham’s red card was dubious to say the least and the visitors failed to score despite an xG of 1.78 which includes a missed penalty.
No doubt they will want revenge and with the chance to go within two points of the Blades, I expect another full-blooded encounter at the Stadium of Light.
TOM DAVIES was carded that evening and has since picked up another for the Blades taking his tally in red and white to four across two seasons, cynical considering he has only played a total of 590 domestic minutes.
The visitors' squad is down to the barebones meaning Davies should get the nod here and his price TO BE CARDED appeals.
After the last clash between these two, I cannot resist putting PATRICK ROBERTS TO BE CARDED in a double alongside Davies.
Roberts is the most card-happy Black Cat with seven this term, which surprised me a little giving the type of player he is.
He will have to get his hands dirty again here as he battles with Harrison Burrows, an attack-minded full-back.
Wednesday 15:00
1pt Makhtar Gueye to be carded in Leeds vs Blackburn at 15/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Gueye and Joe Rodon to be carded at 33/1 (bet365)
1pt Fraser Horsfall to score anytime in Stockport vs Birmingham at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Harrogate to beat Salford at 16/5 (Betfair)
1pt Alassana Jatta and Nathan Lowe to score anytime in N. County vs Walsall at 10/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Jatta and Lowe to score 2+ goals at 190/1 (bet365)
Leeds vs Blackburn
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Wednesday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 18/5 | Away 15/2
Leeds haven’t lost since the end of November, a defeat inflicted by their next opponents Blackburn.
JOE RODON didn’t handle the loss with too much class, giving a salty post-match interview complaining about Rovers' negative tactics. Having watched the game, it didn’t look that way.
Nevertheless, it should give the rematch a little bit of needle, at least that is what I am hoping for for the sake of cards.
There is a chance Yuki Ohashi is preferred by John Eustace in attack for the visitors. MAKHTAR GUEYE has started three of the last four though and the physical frontman's price TO BE CARDED is worth a look with bet365; if he doesn't play the bet is void.
In 874 minutes of Championship action, Gueye has notched up four yellows and a red card for waving an imaginary card in the East Lancashire derby.
Coupling a Gueye card with Rodon TO BE CARDED also appeals at 33/1.
Leeds' centre-back has picked up 12 across the last two seasons and after his comments following the last game, this one could be personal.
Stockport vs Birmingham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Wednesday
- Home 11/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 21/20
FRASER HORSFALL, how are you? I have missed you buddy.
The central defender is a bumper price TO SCORE ANYTIME against League One title favourites Birmingham and I could not resist, not after friend of the column Donovan Pines netted at the weekend and we didn’t profit.
Horsfall has only scored once in the league but has generated an xG of 2.02 (as per the Sporting Life website) and averages 0.97 shots per 90.
Couple this with Birmingham's set piece record and I think it is a bet.
The Blues have only conceded 16 times this season but six have come via dead-ball situations. That works out at 37.5% and that is the third-highest percentage in the division.
Harrogate vs Salford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Wednesday
- Home 29/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 5/6
I like backing HARROGATE TO WIN when they play the big boys in League Two.
Although it is yet to bear fruit for us, Wednesday’s hosts have a knack of picking up results against the division's best teams. In 12 games, Town have won five times (42%) despite their average odds suggesting an average implied probability of 20%.
Can you class Salford as big boys? Given their financial clout, form and the fact they’re sixth, I would say so.
Karl Robinson’s side have won their last four on the spin and only lost twice across their last 15 in all competitions but on the road, Salford have only won two of 10 games.
Part of the reason Harrogate often outperform the odds is because their contain and counter approach works well against possession-heavy sides and Wednesday’s opponents average the fifth-highest possession in the league.
It is why I think siding with the hosts is worth a punt here at chunky odds.
Notts County vs Walsall
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Wednesday
- Home 8/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 7/5
The cynosure of the New Year’s Day slate in my opinion comes from League Two where Notts County host Walsall. It is a battle between first and second but also pits the division's entertainers against each other.
Walsall top the table with 49 points and the goalscoring charts, scoring 41 times.
County are a distant second points wise - they are closer to 18th than the top - but are averaging 1.6 goals per game and put five past Cheltenham in their last outing.
Although over 2.5 goals is a backable price at 5/6, I am going to be a little bolder here and tout both sides' forwards to find the net at 10/1.
ALASSANA JATTA scored a brace on Sunday, putting him on 11 league goals for the season and two off the division's top scorer.
NATHAN LOWE tops the charts with 13 and, like Jatta, he was at the double in Walsall’s last outing.
Considering the pair's red hot form, backing them both TO SCORE ANYTIME via bet365’s bet builder appeals as does having them both TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 190/1, if you are greedy like me.
I hope this one lives up to the billing now - watch it end goalless...
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (30/12/24)
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