- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 118pts | Returned 103.66 | P/L -14.34pts | ROI -12.5%
Football betting tips: EFL and FA Cup
0.5pt Jordan Cullinane-Liburd to score anytime in Burton vs Tamworth (14:00) at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Haydn Hollis to score anytime in Burton vs Tamworth (14:00) at 18/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Kennedy Digie to score anytime in Burton vs Tamworth (14:00) at 18/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Curtis Nelson to score anytime in Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday (15:00) at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
We’re in a sticky patch.
The losing streak now stands at three columns and 24 picks and the P/L has plummeted below -10pts.
Morgan Whittaker didn’t turn up Friday evening, Burnley did Burnley things and won when they were supposed to lose at Bristol City and Shilow Tracey clearly had his card marked in Crewe’s draw at Port Vale on Monday.
I can live with all of these, the toughest beat came on Saturday afternoon.
I was out at the time and blissfully unaware how close Fraser Horsfall had gone in Stockport’s win over Burton.
On our match centre, it defines his effort as a ‘great’ chance (0.24 xG). I just wish he could’ve kept his volley down, preferably smashing into the back of the net for a 20/1 winner. The column goes back into the green and we go into this weekend with a spring in our step.
Just gotta keep plugging away I guess, the clichéd stick to the process and what not.
Burton vs Tamworth
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 4/9 | Draw 16/5 | Away 19/4
Tamworth are back in FA Cup action which means more of Tom Tonks' torpedo throw.
Whenever the ball goes out in the Burton half on Sunday, it's getting hurled into the box, which is why the prices of Tamworth’s defenders are worth a go TO SCORE ANYTIME.
"It's like a torpedo! The long throw has worked!"
— Match of the Day (@BBCMOTD) November 1, 2024
Part-timers Tamworth lead League One Huddersfield! 😮 #BBCFootball #FACup pic.twitter.com/inzPQpKveo
JORDAN CULLINANE-LIBURD is the standout pick, he netted five times last season in the National League North and has one this term.
HAYDN HOLLIS (19 apps, 1 goal) and KENNEDY DIGIE (five goals last season in the NLN) are also worth covering.
In 15 league games, Burton have conceded eight goals from set pieces and four different centre-backs have found the net against the Brewers.
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 7/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 19/10
Derby are good from set pieces, Sheffield Wednesday are bad.
The Rams have scored 11 times from dead balls, four more than anyone else in the Championship, and Wednesday have conceded 10 times.
Jake Cooper (Millwall), Ryan Porteous (Watford), Connor Ogilvie (Portsmouth) Luke O’Nien (Sunderland) and Dennis Cirkin (Sunderland) are the five defenders who have all scored from set pieces against the Owls this season.
That is five players in 17 games and this is nothing new. Last season, 32% of the 44 goals Wednesday conceded came from dead balls.
An UNSTOPPABLE Curtis Nelson header! 💥 pic.twitter.com/pXb3C1uD6u
— Derby County (@dcfcofficial) October 5, 2024
CURTIS NELSON looks the most likely for the Rams. With two goals, he is his side's second-top goalscorer in the league and has already equalled last season's tally.
At 16/1, his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is a nice way to round up the weekend.
Generational wealth
Tipping three centre backs, it only seems logical to combine the trio in a trixie. Coral and Ladbrokes are the market leaders but William Hill’s price is also worth a punt.
Small stakes obviously...
- Horsfall, Cullinane-Liburd and Nelson to score, 3,002/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes
Already advised
Friday
0.5pt Declan Howe to score anytime in Harrogate vs Gainsborough (19:45) at 15/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Jobe Bellingham and Vini Souza to be carded in Sheffield United vs Sunderland (20:00) at 18/1 (bet365)
Saturday
1pt James Norwood to score anytime in Leyton Orient vs Oldham (15:00) at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt James Norwood to score 2+ goals at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Fraser Horsfall to score anytime in Stockport vs Brackley (15:00) at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
0.5pt Fraser Horsfall to score 2+ goals at 125/1 (William Hill)
Sunday
1pt Nile Ranger to score anytime in Kettering vs Doncaster (12:00) at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Nile Ranger to score 2+ goals at 33/1 (bet365)
Harrogate vs Gainsborough
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
- TV: BBC Two
- Home 1/3 | Draw 7/2 | Away 13/2
DECLAN HOWE is part of a cluster of players on two goals in the FA Cup chasing the illustrious Mitre Golden Ball award (top scorer in the FA Cup).
Gainsborough’s frontman spoke of his desire to add to that tally and help his side get to the third round on Friday, although League Two’s Harrogate might have something to say about that.
Touted by many to struggle this season, Simon Weaver’s side are starting to gather momentum, winning their last two games in the league and beating Wrexham in the first round of this competition, much to the dismay of the television people.
Gainsborough should not be taken lightly though, they have shown resilience to reach this round coming from behind to beat Darlington in qualifying and then from three goals down against Hednesford in the last round.
Although victory on Friday is unlikely, they could certainly bloody the Sulphurites' nose.
Frontman Howe has netted 18 times in all competitions this term and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a poke Friday evening.
Sheffield United vs Sunderland
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home evens | Draw 9/4 | Away 11/4
From the FA Cup to the Sky Bet Championship. We're spoilt on Friday night, with two matches live on the telly under the lights. This one sees second-placed Sheffield United host third-placed Sunderland and it should be a cracker.
I was immediately drawn to the cards markets.
The Blades have one of the poorest disciplinary records in the division (39Y 1R). Sunderland aren’t quite as prolific but their three games against the big boys (Burnley, Leeds, Middlesbrough) have seen 19 cards flashed.
A tenacious battle in the middle of the park should be expected.
JOBE BELLINGHAM’s price TO BE CARDED stands out for the visitors. Four of his five have come on the road this term, the other was against Leeds.
He’ll be pitting his whits against Sydie Peck and VINI SOUZA. The Brazilian has notched up six cards already this term, he averages 3.8 tackles and 2.1 fouls per game (that's the most in the league).
Although both players are big enough to take as singles, I’ll be playing the double at 18/1. It’s as short as 5/1 elsewhere.
Leyton Orient vs Oldham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 15/4
I saw a lot of JAMES NORWOOD live in the flesh at Barnsley.
A bullish workhorse with an eye for goal, he was adored by the Oakwell faithful. He always looked just as likely to score as he was to be booked, underpinned by his tally of 11 goals and 10 cards in South Yorkshire (22/23).
He was probably good enough to be the Reds' starting number nine in the third tier which is why it’s incredible he is plying his trade in the National League.
It is also no surprise to see he’s bagged 23 goals in one and a bit seasons at Oldham en route to his recent National League Player of the Year accolade, he has also notched up 12 cards.
Box Office.
Congratulations to @OfficialOAFC’s James Norwood.
— BBC Sport Manchester (@BBCRMsport) November 25, 2024
He’s won the first award of the night at the @NWFAwards. #OAFC #NWFA2024 pic.twitter.com/gnczQGjjNo
In his last six appearances, he has scored six and been carded three times, with the double (goal, card) clicking twice.
With it being a 3pm kick off, I doubt cards will be priced but keep your eyes peeled just in case. His price TO SCORE ANYTIME and 2+ GOALS are worth a go regardless.
Stockport vs Brackley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/7 | Draw 11/2 | Away 12/1
Sod's law dictates FRASER HORSFALL will score the game after he was unsuccessful tipped. Thems the rules.
All will be forgiven if he does find the net against Brackley on Saturday but sod's law isn’t the only reason he is getting tipped TO SCORE ANYTIME this weekend.
Obviously I'll also be taking him TO SCORE 2+ for good measure.
Above all, he is 10/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill. For context, Betfair and Paddy Power have gone 7/2 and bet365 have gone 4/1.
Those prices are criminally short for a centre-back to score. He has a goals per 90 average of 0.09 which even makes the 10/1 a touch tight at face value, that is without context though.
Horsfall has scored twice this term and both have come in his last five appearances. He netted the opener in Stockport's 2-1 win over Forest Green in the last round then found the net against Bolton.
Prior to the clash with Forest Green, Horsfall had taken nine shots in 12 appearances and hit the target three times. In the five games since, he’s had 11 shots and hit the target five times.
I couldn’t tell you the reason for the increase. After going close against Burton though, I am hoping this isn't just a flash in the pan.
Kettering vs Doncaster
- Kick-off time: 12:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: BBC Two
- Home 13/2 | Draw 4/1 | Away 2/7
Kettering (step 3, Southern Central) won at Northampton (League One) in round two of the FA Cup thanks to a NILE RANGER goal in extra time.
Ranger has scored one in three appearances since but his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a punt on Sunday.
The frontman recently signed a new deal at the club and his side will lean on his experience against Doncaster. I’ll be taking him to SCORE 2+ GOALS considering he also has spot kick duties.
Grant McCann’s men edged past Barrow in the first round and were knocked out at this stage last season after some unconvincing performances.
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (28/11/24)
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