Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 552pts | Returned 591.85pts | P/L +39.85pts | ROI 7.2%
Football betting tips: Premier League Final Day
2pts Brighton to beat Man Utd at 9/10 (BetFred)
1pt No cards in Palace vs Arsenal at 10/3 (bet365)
1pt Over 3.5 goals in Fulham vs Newcastle at 13/8 (BetFred)
0.5pt Over 5.5 goals in Fulham vs Newcastle at 8/1 (General)
2pts Nathan Collins 1+ total shots in Liverpool vs Brentford at 23/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 3/4
2pts Sepp van den Berg 1+ total shots at 11/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 3/4
2.5pts Under 2.5 cards in Man City vs Villa at 10/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt No cards in Man City vs Villa at 9/1 (bet365)
0.25pts No card double in Palace vs Arsenal & Man City vs Villa at 42/1 (bet365)
1pt Sunderland to win at 13/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Sunderland win to nil vs Chelsea at 6/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
0.5pt Robin Roefs to be carded at 17/2 (Coral, Ladbroked) - min price 6/1
1pt Everton to beat Tottenham at 3/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.25pt Everton to win and Richarlison to be sent off at 150/1 (bet365)
1pt Crysencio Summerville to be carded in West Ham vs Leeds at 7/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Joe Rodon to be carded in West Ham vs Leeds at 6/1 (William Hill)
***All games kick off at 16:00
What the Premier League final-day permutations?
The final day should once again be hectic, with plenty still to be decided.
It's been a fun, and most importantly, profitable campaign, and I sincerely thank you for reading what has been a long column every week (apologies).
Initially the plan was to run through all of the permutations here, but with 10 games to tackle and 16 bets advised, better to just crack and let the Premier League explain what's at stake for everyone on matchday 38.
I've tackled the games in alphabetical order for ease, coincidentally meaning the games with relegation implications are at the bottom; how apt.
Brighton vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Tennis
- Live odds, form and stats
The appointment of Michael Carrick as permanent boss of Manchester United makes a lot of sense in some ways, but not a lot in others. Yes, results have picked up and he's guided them to a third place finish, but those results have been fortunate for the most part, which isn't ideal when projecting long-term success.
He's overseen 16 league games and won 11, losing just two, a record which no team can better in that time, but they sit fifth for expected points behind the league's top two as well as Bournemouth and Sunday's opponents Brighton.
Since the March international break, United have won four and lost one of their six games, again an excellent return, but have put up only the 10th most expected points, suggesting yet more fortune.
Perhaps ironically, their expected points per game tally under Ruben Amorim (1.65) was actually marginally better than what we've seen under Carrick (1.63 xP), as was their expected goal difference (+0.52 vs +0.47) so while the eye test and results say otherwise, the data suggests no real progression.
For context, a title challenger should be in the range of 1.95 xP per game and +0.91 xGD per game.
That's something to bear in mind heading into next season, a campaign where the Red Devils will have to contend with at least 10-12 more matches than this season with European commitments and (hopefully for them) deeper domestic cup runs. Perhaps a drop like Newcastle (bottom half) could be on the cards... I'll be keeping a close eye on the early lines for such markets for 26/27.
This weekend though we should keep it simple and back BRIGHTON TO WIN, not only because of the above, but because Brighton are a genuine top team who will be fully at it here in search of a result, whereas United don't have any reason to go strong with nothing other than another Bruno Fernandes assist to play for.
The Seagulls need to win to confirm a Europa League spot for next season, with anything less opening the door for teams behind them. Fabian Hurzeler's side were excellent last week only to be sucker punched by Leeds to lose 1-0 late on, dominating the game and winning the xG battle 3.06 - 0.39 at Elland Road.
Their results and process over the last eight games has been excellent, with only City racking up more expected points than the Seagulls (1.94 per game), only Arsenal conceding fewer xGA per game (1.09) and only City and Bournemouth topping them for xGF per game (1.95).
It seems they are peaking at the right time, and against an unmotivated side who have struggled on the road (three wins in seven under Carrick), should be backed to get the job done.
Score prediction: Brighton 3-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Burnley vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
The bottom two square-off at Turf Moor with the prize of avoiding the wooden spoon up for grabs. Bottom side Wolves need to win to overtake second-bottom Burnley and avoid finishing 20th - whether that's enough motivation for a performance from either team is questionable.
Wolves have been utterly miserable away from home this season; winless in 18 with 13 defeats, just seven goals scored. Eleven of their 18 have been defeats to nil which did make the 15/4 about a Burnley win to nil appeal until I remembered, well, they are Burnley.
They've kept just three clean sheets in 37 league games - though all three did come at home - so we'll swerve this contest from a betting standpoint.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Another dead-rubber here with neither Crystal Palace and champions Arsenal having anything to play for in the league, both having their eyes set firmly on upcoming European finals. Rotation should be the name of the game, making player prop bets difficult to tip.
Given neither side will be full-tilt, players will be wanting to avoid injuries and with nothing on the line, chancing NO CARDS appeals even at a short price of 10/3.
The intensity should be low as Palace play the Conference League final just three days after this, while Arsenal players were out celebrating title success earlier this week - some still haven't returned to full training.
Like at the Etihad, this game will have a real feel-good feel to it as (you'd hope) Palace fans will be celebrating Oliver Glasner's achievements in his final home game in charge, and the Gunners will be enjoying their title success.
Referee Farai Hallam is lenient too, flashing just 3.0 cards per game in the Premier League, while he's fresh from a one-card game in the FA Trophy final at Wembley and a two-card game in the first leg of Middlesbrough and Southampton's Championship play-off semi-final.
Interestingly Arsenal have been involved in four no-card games this season across all competitions, one of which came against Palace in the reverse league game, while their Carabao Cup meeting saw only one card which was shown to goalkeeper Kepa for time-wasting.
Given it's the final day, we'll DOUBLE up the NO CARD bets in this game with City's match against Aston Villa for a 42/1 longshot, too.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Fulham vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Yet another dead-rubber. Fulham (13th) and Newcastle (11th) are split on goal difference and set for a mid-table finish, though this may well be Marco Silva's last game as Fulham boss with him yet to sign a new deal - reports claim he's taking the Benfica job after Jose Mourinho went back to Real Madrid.
The Cottagers have finished in a miserable fashion, winning just two of their last 10 across all competitions, scoring five times in that run.
But.
This could be one of the final-day games that just goes mental for goals. Both teams have the potential to really go goal crazy, and with little to play for, and with this being a send-off game for Silva, the shackles could be well and truly off.
OVER 3.5 GOALS looks worth a poke at 13/8. The last four head-to-heads between have averaged 3.25 goals, and Newcastle come into this game on the back of two 4+ goal games in their last three.
We'll also take a big swing at OVER 5.5 GOALS, priced at 8/1, in the hope things get really out of hand, just like they did when Fulham lost 5-4 to Manchester City earlier this season.
We tend to see some freak scorelines on final day, last season it was Brighton winning 4-1 at Spurs, in 23/24 we had two 4-2's - one of which featured Newcastle, in 22/23 it was a 4-4 draw between Southampton and Liverpool, 21/22 we had a 5-1 Arsenal win, 20/21 it was a 4-2 involving Spurs, 18/19 we had a 5-3 win for Palace over Bournemouth, 17/18 was a 5-4 Spurs win over Leicester, 16/17 it was Spurs again who won big, this time 7-1 at Hull.
You get the gist, there is generally one game on final day that goes goal crazy with both teams playing with incredible freedom, hopefully it's this one this season.
Score prediction: Fulham 3-3 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 33/1)
Liverpool vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
It's been a deeply disappointing season for Liverpool, who followed up last season's title with a big summer spend and only a top-five finish to show for it.
Arne Slot is a lucky man to still be in a job, with results and performances completely underwhelming throughout 25/26, and there are whispers that the Reds hierarchy are ready to U-turn on their decision to keep him on.
The Reds finish their season with a home game against a Brentford team who need to win to have any chance of qualifying for Europe, and despite this being at Anfield, you have to argue they have a decent chance of getting the win they need based on recent Liverpool displays.
Slot's men have been utterly outplayed in three of their last four league outings, Chelsea the only game that was even, with the Reds creating just 1.01 xGF and conceding 1.74 xGA per game. That is not good.
Brentford's away form isn't good enough to make them an automatic bet to win at 3/1, with six away wins in 18 and five of those coming against the bottom half - three against the bottom three.
Instead we'll lean on a Brentford strength and a Liverpool weakness to focus on the Bees' centre-backs getting shots away once again. NATHAN COLLINS is 23/20 for 1+ TOTAL SHOTS which looks huge, as does the 11/10 about former Red SEPP VAN DEN BERG doing the same.
The pair both managed to land a shot last time out against an equally-frail set-piece team in Crystal Palace, with Van den Berg doing so in a nine-minute cameo.
It means Collins has fired nine shots in his last 11 appearances and Van den Berg 12 in his last 11, highlighting how regularly the pair are threatening. Brentford have been the biggest under-performers from set-pieces this season, netting just 10 from chances equating to 18.26 xG, but that latter figure ranks third best in the league while only four teams have taken more set-piece shots.
No team has conceded more set-piece goals than Liverpool's 20 this term - three more than anyone else - with Aston Villa the most recent team to profit after netting twice from dead-balls last weekend.
The game state helps this bet too, as Brentford know they simply must win here in order to have a chance of qualifying for Europe, and they shouldn't be scared of this current Liverpool team, so we should expect plenty of attacking football from the Bees and thus plenty of set-piece opportunities.
That remains the case even if Liverpool go 1-0 up, Brentford will keep pushing, so let's hope Collins and Van Den Berg can deliver again - and that the latter comes back into the line-up.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Action
- Live odds, form and stats
It should be a day of celebration at the Etihad. Manchester City, FA Cup and Carabao Cup winners, hosting freshly crowned Europa League champions Aston Villa in what will be Bernardo Silva's and Pep Guardiola's final game.
Neither team has anything to play for, Villa will have sore heads and there is a chance both rotate looking to give their stars a mini break before the World Cup. That could lead to a lower-intensity game, one that feels like a friendly, so that, combined with the referee appointment and City's record on the final day has me all over opposing cards.
UNDER 2.5 CARDS is priced at 10/11 generally and that has to be backed.
Matches involving City across the last seven final days have been very low-card affairs. Under 2.5 cards would have copped in five of those seven, with City themselves picking up just three cards in those seven matches, failing to collect a single card in five of seven.
Villa have collected the third-fewest cards all season so all the ingredients are there to make a low-card meal.
The cherry on top is the referee appointment of Andy Madley, who is one of the league's most lenient refs when it comes to final-day action. Across his last seven final-day games, six have gone under 2.5 cards, with Madley flashing an average of just 1.42 cards per game in matchday 38.
Interestingly he also reffed City in a dead-rubber on the final day of last season and had a NO CARD game, which is most certainly worth a go to be repeated at 9/1.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Nottingham Forest are safe, Bournemouth have secured a top-seven finish but need a point to guarantee sixth and give them an outside squeak of Champions League football. The bookies have priced this one accordingly, with the visitors 23/20. Too short for me, even if they are 17 unbeaten.
Eli Kroupi was my next port of call but, understandably given form that has seen five goals in his last seven, he's short enough at 11/8 to score anytime. It's another no bet here for us.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Sunderland vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
This game carries plenty of European qualification implications for both teams.
Put simply, on paper both need to win. But, if results go the way I expect them to, with Brighton winning, Chelsea's highest possible finish would be eighth and I can't for the life of me imagine they'll be wanting to finish there and be the Premier League's representatives in the Conference League once again.
Having won the competition at a canter a few years ago, a repeat would be priced incredibly short were they again to find themselves in the tertiary tournament and it could become an unwanted distraction and a forced congestion on the schedule.
With a new manager at the helm next season in Xabi Alonso - one with meticulous tactical detail - who will already be short of pre-season training ground time due to the World Cup, it could be in the club's best interest to miss out on Europe altogether rather than enter the UECL, free up midweeks to at the very least give themselves the best possible chance of qualifying for the Champions League in 26/27.
The no-midweek game is huge in that regard, just look at Manchester United this season. Motivation in the Chelsea camp could be low for this one, and if it is, they are easily opposed especially with a number of players likely having an eye on World Cup preparations.
Factor in they have played the FA Cup final and a huge London derby against Tottenham over the past eight days, and an away win makes no appeal at 21/20. In fact, I'm going to recommend taking SUNDERLAND TO WIN at 27/10.
The Black Cats, whatever the European situation, will be up for this final home game of what has been a sensational season. The potential chance to qualify for some sort of continental competition is the added incentive really, with Regis Le Bris knowing only a win will give them a chance.
It's eight home wins in 18 for Sunderland, and they have fared well against the league's big boys, winning two and losing two of eight home games against the top 10. They also beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the reverse for good measure.
And, let's be frank, while the Blues did win in midweek - their second in the last 12 outings against top-flight opponents - against relegation threatened Tottenham, it was another poor showing, especially in forward areas. They mustered just 0.63 xG on that occasion, and since smashing Aston Villa in their best performance of the season, Chelsea's attack has simply gone missing.
In the 12 games since against top-flight opponents, the Blues have scored just seven times and generated an average of 0.98 xGF per game - they've failed to score in seven of those 12, so a small bet on SUNDERLAND WIN TO NIL is advised at 6/1.
Five of Sunderland's eight home wins have come in this fashion this season. Should the hosts be leading narrowly heading into the final 15 minutes or so and results are going their way then I think goalkeeper ROBIN ROEFS will be pulling out all the stops to help get his team get over the line, and his price TO BE CARDED looks massive at 17/2.
He's been carded four times this season and twice in his last seven, so looks worth a small swing. The Sunderland win and Roefs card double pays 25/1 with bet365 for those wanting the combo, while the win to nil and Roefs card is a whopping 50/1.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Tottenham vs Everton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Remember last season? When Everton, who had nothing to play for, travelled to Newcastle on the final day, who had Champions League football to play for? Remember the result?
That's right, David Moyes' unmotivated troops went all the way up to St. James' Park and won 1-0, and if it wasn't for a moment of Emi Martinez madness and a controversial refereeing decision at Old Trafford, that defeat would have cost Newcastle their UCL spot.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see something similar, with all the pressure on relegation-battling Tottenham, who are in that awkward middle-ground of not knowing whether to go for the win and risk leaving themselves exposed, or be passive and play for the draw only to risk being caught by a moment of magic or a set-piece.
At the prices, we have to take a swing on EVERTON TO WIN. Not only are they a better team than Tottenham, but they might enjoy the freedom on Sunday and the chance to play spoiler - just as they did last season. They are good travellers too, winning seven of 18 and collecting the sixth-most away points in the league.
Tottenham will be nervy. The fans will be nervy. And they should be.
Spurs have won just two of their 18 home games this season, the first coming on opening day against Burnley and the second against Brentford when Thomas Frank was in charge.
It's 10 defeats in that time, and while Roberto De Zerbi has overseen two home draws, their performance against a Leeds side last time out who had nothing to play for was concerning. The Whites should have probably nicked three points.
Chances and goals have been hard to come by, with Spurs generating just 1.06 xGF per game, and you just feel as though this will be another tight game which could be a disaster for Spurs.
Having said that, it wouldn't be surprising to see Moyes do his old side a favour only for them to fail to take advantage.
If things are going against Spurs and it looks as though they are going down, who better to lose their head and get SENT OFF than former Toffee RICHARLISON, so we'll back him to see red alongside an AWAY WIN at 150/1, with those the only circumstances I could see any Spurs player completely losing it.
Score prediction: Tottenham 0-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
West Ham vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
So if I'm right, all West Ham have to do is beat nothing-to-play for Leeds. Easy right? Wrong.
Leeds are an extremely tough nut to crack, losing just one of their last 11 across all competitions, while losing just one of their last 14 away games, with that sole defeat coming at St. James' Park when Newcastle scored in the 100th minute.
Even with injuries, Leeds have shown no sign of slowing down for the off-season, so this will be yet another tough game for the Hammers. They have at least improved their home form under Nuno Espirito Santo, with their only defeat in 90 minutes across their last 10 coming last time out against champions Arsenal.
Frustrations could boil over, and I'm again drawn to CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE TO BE CARDED at 7/2, as not only is he a front-foot, foul-heavy player who has been carded seven times this season - including four in his last nine - but he could get relegated by his former employers which would sting.
We'll also take an opponent who will likely be up against Summerville at various points in the game - JOE RODON - TO BE CARDED at 6/1.
Summerville is a tricky customer, drawing 2.52 fouls per 90, and should be playing in his usual left-wing role as West Ham surely have to revert to a 4-4-2 rather than a 3-4-3 that basically nullifies Summerville and captain Jarred Bowen, but either way Rodon will likely be in duels with the Dutchman, especially with the attack-minded Dan James playing right-wing-back.
Rodon has been booked in two of his last three starts since coming back into the side, and referee Anthony Taylor is a good appointment for card backers.
Fresh from a six-card game in midweek, Taylor has now averaged 4.09 cards per game over the course of the season, with his last 18 games seeing 4.5 cards on average.
I'm not willing to go all in on the 'West Ham will stay up' bet, but I hope it'll be as intriguing as I projecting! You watch, Spurs will be 2-0 up in 10 minutes and it'll be a damp squib...
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
All odds correct at 15:20 BST (22/05/26)
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