Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 513.50pts | Returned 550.69pts | P/L +37.19pts | ROI 7%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday 20:00 - Tottenham vs Leeds
1pt Jayden Bogle to commit 2+ fouls at 11/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/4
Tottenham vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Roberto De Zerbi has guided Tottenham to back-to-back wins and in pole position to survive relegation, with their most recent success seeing them jump out of the bottom three, and another win here will make it extremely tough for West Ham to catch them.
That won't be easy though, with Leeds an extremely tough nut to crack. They head to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in great form too, losing just four of their last 22 league games, with two of those defeats coming against the top two.
Daniel Farke's side have only lost once away from home in their last 10, and that was thanks to a 100th-minute winner from Newcastle, while they have recently been to Old Trafford and won and picked up a point against in-form Bournemouth.
That has me immediately thinking that Spurs are too short at 10/11 to win a third straight game, but instead of taking them on, we'll instead head to the fouls market where JAYDEN BOGLE looks a big price at 11/5 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
Bogle should again be playing as a right wing-back for Leeds, and has committed an average of 1.30 fouls per 90 this season, but the reason I'm keen on this bet is his opponents.
He'll be tasked with containing Mathys Tel and an overlapping Destiny Udogie, with both drawing an average of 1.56 fouls per 90. Bogle has landed the 2+ fouls bet in three of his last six, and with Spurs likely to play very attack-minded in their bid to get another win, he'll be under a lot of pressure.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 15:45 BST (07/05/26)
Already advised
Saturday 12:30 - Liverpool vs Chelsea
2.5pts Virgil van Dijk 1+ total shot at evens (bet365) - min price 4/6
Saturday 15:00
1pt Yerson Mosquera to be carded in Brighton vs Wolves at 9/4 (General) - min price 15/8
2pts Raul Jimenez to commit 2+ fouls and Marcos Senesi to win 1+ foul in Fulham vs Bournemouth at 6/4 (bet365) - min price evens
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist in Sunderland vs Man Utd at 5/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 6/4
0.5pt Bruno Fernandes 2+ assists in Sunderland vs Man Utd at 14/1 (BetVictor) - min price 8/1
Saturday 17:30 - Man City vs Brentford
1pt Michael Kayode to be carded at 27/10 (BetVictor) - min price 15/8
1pt Keane Lewis-Potter to win 2+ fouls at 2/1 (bet365) - min price 11/10
Sunday 14:00
1pt Kyle Walker to be carded in Burnley vs Aston Villa at 17/4 (Betway) - min price 5/2
1pt Bashir Humphreys to be carded in Burnley vs Aston Villa at 13/2 (Betway) - min price 3/1
2pts Michael Keane 1+ total shot in C Palace vs Everton at 10/11 (Betway) - min price 4/7
1.5pts James Tarkowski 1+ total shot in C Palace vs Everton at 6/5 (Betway) - min price 8/11
2pts Luca Netz to commit 1+ foul in Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle at 4/5 (bet365, Betway) - min price 4/6
0.5pt Luca Netz to commit 2+ fouls in Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle at 4/1 (bet365, Betway) - min price 2/1
Sunday 16:30 - West Ham vs Arsenal
2.5pts Crysencio Summerville to commit 1+ foul and Ben White to win 1+ foul at 20/21 (bet365) - min price 7/10
Liverpool vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Both Liverpool and Chelsea suffered poor defeats last time out, but the implications of those losses were far worst for the Blues than the Reds.
After a 3-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest, Chelsea are ninth in the table and now four points off sixth. It could well be that their only route to European football is by winning the FA Cup.
Liverpool were beaten at Manchester United but remain fourth and know a win here will all-but secure Champions League football, and given the disarray Chelsea find themselves in, a home win was of some interest at 9/10.
It's six straight league defeats for the Blues with just one goal scored, while Liverpool have won three of their last four at Anfield and 10 of 17 this season.
But at even money we have to back VIRGIL VAN DIJK 1+ TOTAL SHOT on Saturday.
Chelsea have conceded the fourth-most set-piece goals (16) this season and fifth-most set-piece xG (15.52), so are very vulnerable, and van Dijk is a constant threat from dead-balls.
He's taken at least one shot in nine of his last 13 league games, averaging 0.71 shots per 90. He's scored four times already too, including the winner in the Merseyside derby recently, but the 7/1 to score anytime is a tad short and left out of the staking plan.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 21:00 BST (06/05/26)
Brighton vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
YERSON MOSQUERA is back in the mix for Wolves after missing two games through suspension, and he is likely to have a very difficult afternoon at the Amex, so I'll happily put forward backing one of the Premier League's chief nutcases to BE CARDED once again.
The Colombian has 10 to his name in the top flight and 11 in total this season, averaging 0.46 cards per 90. Playing on the right side of Wolves' back three, he will be directly dribbled at by Kaoru Mitoma repeatedly in this game as Brighton press for goals, and we have to expect Mosquera to commit at least one foul on the flying Japanese winger.
Mosquera wasn't booked last weekend despite committing two fouls, though the beauty about the Wolves centre-back is that he doesn't even need to make fouls to be carded as he is such a hot-head. That's how he picked up his 10th card and two-match ban, without making a single foul. I could see that again too should Brighton be racking up a score, just as West Ham did.
The referee here is John Brooks who has averaged 4.7 cards per game this season, so looks an ideal appointment for card backers, and we'll chance our Colombian friend to get his name taken.
Score prediction: Brighton 3-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 10:20 BST (07/05/26)
Fulham vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Will Bournemouth ever lose again? The Cherries head to Fulham unbeaten in 15 Premier League games, sitting sixth in the table which currently would see them qualify for the Europa League. They can't ease up though with five teams below them all within four points.
One of those is Fulham who were poor at the Emirates last weekend but beat Aston Villa in their last home game, and this is all-or-nothing for the Cottagers' European hopes. Win and they are right in the mix, lose and their season is likely over.
Bournemouth are marginal favourites for this clash which does surprise me, especially with Fulham's strong home form. They have won six of their last nine at Craven Cottage, losing only twice. It's 10 wins from 17 over the whole season.
There is plenty on the line so we'll go down the foul route and back RAUL JIMENEZ TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS AND MARCOS SENESI TO WIN 1+ FOUL at 6/4.
Jimenez has been a fouling machine all season, averaging 1.88 fouls per 90, and has committed at least two fouls in eight of his last 13 starts, and Senesi looks an ideal dance partner for him on Saturday.
The Argentine defender has won at least one foul in nine of his last 10 starts and gives as good as he gets, so this could be a really enthralling physical battle and backing fouls looks the way to profit.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 10:20 BST (07/05/26)
Sunderland vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
It's job done for Michael Carrick and Manchester United, who confirmed Champions League qualification via a top-five finish thanks to a 3-2 win over Liverpool. One more win will all-but secure third and this looks a great opportunity to get it.
After a sensational season, Sunderland have tailed off of late, losing to both Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest - conceding nine goals across those games - before only managing a draw at bottom side Wolves.
I don't think we need to overcomplicate things here, and while not wanting to sound like a broken record, BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSIST has to be backed once again at 5/2.
Anyone who backed him in this market last week with Sky Bet, Betfair or Paddy Power were in clover thanks to their settling rules, but officially he is still chasing the assists record, sitting on 19 with three games to go.
Not only did he come a goalkeeper's fingertip away from registering an assist, but he created six chances, including two big chances, that equated to 0.91 expected assists, highlighting how good he was as a creative force against Liverpool.
We should expect more of the same in this game, especially with the pressure of a result for the Red Devils completely off now - they can enjoy themselves and try to get their captain a record, so for the second week in a row we'll also back FERNANDES 2+ ASSISTS in the hope United run riot and the Portuguese maestro takes advantage.
It's very clear Bruno is looking to set up rather than score with the record in his sights, so with that in mind he could very easily double up in one game and break the record. After all, I'm sure he'd love to get it in the bag with a few games to spare and be able to ease off a bit ahead of busy World Cup summer.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-3 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 10:20 BST (07/05/26)
Manchester City vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester City dropped the ball on Monday night and it was all their own doing. Defensive lapses saw them trailing 3-2 at Everton before Jeremy Doku scored a stunning equaliser deep into stoppage time to earn them a point. Still, it's now advantage Arsenal.
Brentford hammered West Ham last week to put themselves seventh in the league table and with European football firmly in their grasp. A trip to the Etihad is extremely tough, but they will fancy their chances of bloodying the nose of the Cityzens, with the Bees not so long ago being much the better team at Old Trafford.
It will be all-out-attack from City who simply have to win and realistically win by a wide margin after Arsenal opened up a +4 gap on goal difference, so we should expect wave after wave of direct City attacks, which should mean Doku gets a lot of the ball once again.
The Belgian was electric on Merseyside, bagging a brace to extend his recent good form. He's scored four and assisted a further two goals in six games since the last international break, but the eye-catching stat from Monday was just how much he was kicked.
Doku was fouled a whopping seven times by the Toffees, and just a few weeks ago he was fouled six times by Arsenal. Over the course of the season he's won an average of 3.02 fouls per 90, with three of his opposing right-backs getting booked in his last six starts.
That means MICHAEL KAYODE will be in for a tough evening and his price of 27/10 TO BE CARDED is worth a bet. He's been booked seven times already this season, picking up a card last week against a similarly tricky winger in Crysencio Summerville.
The referee here is Michael Salisbury who has averaged just under 4.0 cards per game this season, so I'd also recommend backing City's left-back to be carded. I'm not sure if that will be Nico O'Reilly or Rayan Ait-Nouri but at the time of writing the pair are 9/2 (Ladbrokes) and 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral) respectively for a card.
Whoever gets the nod will be tasked with keeping tabs on the lively Dango Ouattara, Brentford's second-most fouled player per 90 (1.52) this season, and a supporting Kayode, who is the Bees fourth-most fouled player per 90 (1.42).
At the prices I can't resist a bet on KEANE LEWIS-POTTER TO WIN 2+ FOULS, with 2/1 a massive price. He has operated at left-back in Brentford's last seven games, playing near enough the full 90 in all, and has been drawing fouls for fun.
He's won 11 fouls in that time, being fouled 2+ times in four of the seven and averaging 1.51 fouls won per 90. This bet comes alive thanks to his likely direct opponent, Antoine Semenyo.
While cooling off in the last few games from a fouls perspective, likely due to needing a rest, Semenyo has been a serial offender on the fouls front this season, averaging 1.61 per 90 in the Premier League, so he looks an ideal opponent for such a good foul-drawer here, especially if things start to go against the hosts.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 11:30 BST (07/05/26)
Burnley vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
At the time of writing I have no idea if Aston Villa made it to the Europa League final, but whatever the result in that second leg, this game feels like a must-win.
Villa are nearly there in the league: they've almost secured a top-five finish and Champions League football, and one win ought to do it, so what better team to play right now than Burnley.
It's been another miserable Premier League season for the Clarets, who have won just four times in 35 games, conceding the most goals (71) en route to relegation. They have lost 10 of 17 at home, winning just two - both against fellow promoted sides - with their last home league win coming back in October.
No surprise then that Villa are 8/13 to win here, even if their performance last week against Tottenham was horrific. But, rather than take a punt on the visitors who may well be tired and underwhelming once again, we'll stick to the tried and trusted method of backing Villa's opposing right-backs and centre-backs to be carded.
It's now 12 of Villa's last 13 league games that have seen either an opposing right-back or right-centre-back pick up a card, with Kevin Danso obliging for us last weekend, and so I see no reason to abandon this tactic.
That means KYLE WALKER is to be backed TO BE CARDED as he should be starting at RB, and I'm hoping BASHIR HUMPREYS gets the nod at RCB so we'll back him TO BE CARDED too.
Walker is 17/4 and Humphreys a whopping 13/2, excellent prices given the opponent but also as they are two of the top four Clarets for cards per 90, Walker at 0.29 and Humphreys at 0.37 as the pair have been booked nine and six times respectively this season.
The cherry on top for this bet is the referee appointment of Anthony Taylor, who has been on fire of late. Across his last 18 games he's averaged 4.5 cards, and somewhat coincidentally has seen this angle cop in both the last two Villa games he has overseen, booking Man Utd's right-centre-back and Bournemouth's right-back.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (07/05/26)
Crystal Palace vs Everton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports F1
- Live odds, form and stats
Given how Crystal Palace went about their business last weekend at Bournemouth, and the comments that followed from Oliver Glasner, it's completely understandable to see Everton 17/10 favourites to win at Selhurst Park on Sunday.
“Let’s say you have a friend’s birthday and your wedding is a few days later. You are more excited for the wedding. This is the same.”
Those were Glasner's exact words, and there is every chance this is another one of those friend's birthdays this weekend given the second leg of their Conference League semi-final takes place on Thursday. Factor in that Everton showed some real steel on Monday against Manchester City, and that they are still in the race for Europe, and an away win made some appeal.
But we'll instead pivot to a possible set-piece mismatch and back both of the Toffees' centre-backs to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT, with MICHAEL KEANE and JAMES TARKOWSKI dangled at appetising prices of 10/11 and 6/5 respectively.
Everton have taken the fifth-most shots of any team from set-pieces this season, while Palace have conceded the fifth-most goals and xG from dead-ball situations, suggesting the visitors could have some joy from corners and free-kicks.
That was the case on Monday when Jake O'Brien scored against Manchester City, while the Eagles also conceded from a corner last weekend thanks to Jefferson Lerma's own-goal.
Keane has registered a shot in seven of his last nine starts for Everton, while Tarkowski has landed this bet in 11 of his last 17, so with the onus on Everton to get a result and this being a low-priority game for Palace, we'll back both.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (07/05/26)
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Nottingham Forest are flying at the moment. At the time of writing I don't know how they got on against Villa in the Europa League, but either way they have finished the season strongly to pull themselves close to survival.
One more win and they will be all-but safe given their hugely superior goal difference (-2) compared to West Ham (-19), and on Sunday they face a Newcastle side with nothing to play for, sat in 13th and posting the fifth-worst away record this season (4W 4D 9L).
The only carrot being dangled for the Magpies is the possibility of finishing above Sunderland, but the fact that the Black Cats did the league double over them means a higher finish won't matter from a bragging rights perspective.
Vitor Pereira made wholesale changes in Monday's win over Chelsea, and similar wouldn't be a huge surprise here given the likely exploits on Thursday night, so I want to chance LUCA NETZ TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL at 4/5 and have a smaller play on him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 4/1.
The German left-back made his first start for Forest on Monday and committed three fouls, that after making one foul off the bench in the 5-0 thrashing of Sunderland before that. Prior to his move to England, Netz had committed at least one foul in six of his last eight starts for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Newcastle started with Jacob Murphy on the right wing in last week's win over Brighton, and he should get the nod again after a good performance. He was fouled twice in that game, and has in fact been fouled at least once in six of his last seven starts for Newcastle.
We are at the mercy of team news, but given how well he played at Stamford Bridge and the tight turnaround from Thursday, Netz could again come in for a start.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 14:15 BST (07/05/26)
West Ham vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
This game is as big as they come. If West Ham fail to win, they could be all-but down by the next time they take to the field, while an Arsenal win could mean they wrap up the title next week at home against Burnley, depending on City's results.
The intensity in this game should be extremely high and the desperation palpable from the Hammers, who will be leaving it all out on the pitch as they look to cause a huge upset and keep their season alive.
That means it could be quite a niggly game with a lot of fouls, and we'll focus on the battle between CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE and BEN WHITE, backing the former TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL and the latter TO WIN 1+ FOUL in a double.
White should again start at right-back for the Gunners having started the last four, and he's not shy about dropping to the floor, and given Summerville's record, White will likely have plenty of opportunities to hit the deck.
Summerville has committed at least one foul in 18 of his last 21 games for the Hammers, and the last time they had a huge home game he committed four fouls against Everton. Before that, it was three fouls in a 4-0 win over Wolves.
He's committed nearly as many fouls (52) as he's taken shots this season (59), which is impressive for a winger and perfectly highlights his front-foot playing style. This bet - backing Summerville to make a foul and his opposing number to be fouled - has won in all of his last five Premier League games, and should go close again here given the stakes of the game.
The only nagging doubt is whether White plays or not after a heavy schedule, but given he's their starting right-back and they can't afford to drop points, I suspect he will again be in the line-up. Fingers crossed.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 15:30 BST (07/05/26)
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