- Cole Palmer fancied to continue his scoring run against Burnley
- Super Summerville backed again at 17:30
- Igor Tudor takes over Tottenham ahead of a huge North London derby
Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 351.75pts | Returned 350.43pts | P/L -1.32pts | ROI -0.4%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 15:00
1pt Lemare Bogarde to be carded in Aston Villa vs Leeds at 9/2 (Betway)
1pt James Justin to be carded in Aston Villa vs Leeds at 13/2 (Betway)
1pt Jan Paul van Hecke to be carded in Brentford vs Brighton at 3/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2.5pts Cole Palmer to score anytime in Chelsea vs Burnley at evens (Sky Bet)
0.75pts Cole Palmer to score 2+ goals in Chelsea vs Burnley at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
0.25pts Cole Palmer to score 3+ goals in Chelsea vs Burnley at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 17:30 - West Ham vs Bournemouth
2.5pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shot on target at 6/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Crysencio Summerville 2+ shots on target at 7/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Crysencio Summerville 3+ shots on target at 25/1 (Boylesports, Betway)
Saturday 20:00 - Man City vs Newcastle
2pts Anthony Gordon 1+ shot on target at evens (bet365)
1pt Bernardo Silva to be carded at 7/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
***Sunday and Monday bets to follow
The less said about the last round of Premier League fixtures, the better. After getting back into the green, we gave it all back again in one fell swoop. Time to get back on track this weekend.
There are plenty of selections I like this weekend, including a few ladder bets that look laced in value, and if one of those win we are laughing.
Let's hope we get on the right side of things.
Aston Villa vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
"Bizot. Marco Bizot. Marco Bizot. Time over."
Well, it probably is time over for the Dutch goalkeeper at Villa after his major error last week meant an FA Cup exit. He won't be playing here, which should fill backers of Aston Villa at 10/11 with more confidence.
Unai Emery's men have been solid at home, Leeds have struggled away, so a home win does look a bit of value. Instead I want to keep hammering the angle of Villa's left-side drawing fouls and cards.
Last week, right-back Kieran Trippier wasn't carded for Newcastle but right-sided-centre-back Malick Thiaw was. Four of the last seven right-centre-backs to have faced Villa have been carded, while five of the last seven right-backs have had their names taken.
With Leeds playing a back three, the right-sided-centre-back JAMES JUSTIN fits both categories at times, and looks a huge price of 13/2 TO BE CARDED as a result. He's only been carded twice this season, but did collect one in his last game at Chelsea, and this is more about the opposition he's facing here.
We'll also flip it and back Aston Villa's right-back to be carded here too, with Leeds seeing three opposing right-backs get booked in their last five league games due to the roaming of Brenden Aaronson in the left channel, and Gabriel Gudmundsson's forward runs.
Matty Cash is a doubt for the game, meaning we'll likely see LEMARE BOGARDE at right-back and he's 9/2 TO BE CARDED. He's been carded five times in just 662 minutes of Premier League action this season (0.68 per 90), and has picked up seven cards in all competitions at an average of 0.49 per 90.
Michael Oliver isn't the most ideal appointment, averaging 3.33 cards per game this season, but he has started throwing cards more frequently of late, averaging 3.8 cards per game over his last 10, while he has shown at least four cards in four of his last six.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 14:00 GMT (19/02/26)
Brentford vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
What is happening to Brighton? They are having a very poor season by their standards and it will likely cost Fabian Hurzeler his job. They have won just one of their last 13 league games, a home victory over Burnley, and were dumped out of the FA Cup at Anfield last Saturday.
It seems unlikely this run will continue and they slip into the relegation places, the Seagulls entering gameweek 27 seven points above the drop zone, but you never know, and a trip to Brentford will not be easy.
The Bees are flying at the moment, fresh off an FA Cup win and collecting seven points from three league games against Arsenal (h), Aston Villa (a) and Newcastle (a). The even-money about the hosts really did tempt me, but I'm heading down the cards route with this looking like a bad match-up for Brighton.
That's because the Bees are happy to contain and counter, something they will be afforded the opportunity to do, and it could mean for a very stretched game with a lot of space. That spells trouble for JAN PAUL VAN HECKE, and at 3/1 we'll back him TO BE CARDED.
The Dutchman will be tasked with keeping tabs on some dangerous Bees forwards, notably Igor Thiago who is a handful, but also the lively Dango Ouattara and rapid Kevin Schade, who returns from injury. Van Hecke has been carded eight times across all competitions this season, and has collected five in his last eight starts.
Jarred Gillet is the man with the whistle, and he's averaged 3.63 cards per game this season so represents a decent enough appointment.
Score prediction: Brentford 3-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 14:00 GMT (19/02/26)
Chelsea vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Chelsea rotated last week and with the depth they have, comfortably made it through in the FA Cup. We should see some big-hitters restored for this home game against Burnley, including COLE PALMER, who should be backed at even-money TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He's bagged six goals in his last seven league starts at an average of 0.96 goals per 90, with his xG per 90 also at 0.96 in that time. Hilariously, five of those six goals have been penalties, which explains the lofty xG average, but given Chelsea have won the second most penalties in the league and opponents Burnley have conceded the second most penalties this season, another spot-kick wouldn't be a surprise.
The Englishman is slowly getting back to his best after an injury lay-off, with his non-penalty xG per 90 over the last seven standing at 0.32, so he's still getting open-play chances, and he'll get plenty against a wide-open Burnley.
Scott Parker's men have conceded the most away goals (2.46 per game) and most expected goals away from home (2.52 per game), so Chelsea could rack up a score here, which increases the chances of Palmer finding the net.
He's also scored nine braces or better since joining Chelsea, including recently against bottom side Wolves, so we'll also chance PALMER TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 9/2, while he's fired four hat-tricks too so we can't leave PALMER TO SCORE 3+ unbacked at 22/1 just in case.
Score prediction: Chelsea 4-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 13:00 GMT (19/02/26)
West Ham vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
West Ham have a very real chance of survival given their recent performances, and one player has come to the fore - CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE.
The Dutchman has scored in four of his side's last five league games, and in six of their last seven in all competitions, while he has landed 1+ SHOT ON TARGET in all of his last eight, so we simply have to back a repeat here at a huge 6/5.
Summerville is shot happy, but has been getting into really dangerous areas which has led to him hitting the target more often.
Add in the fact the Hammers are playing more attack-minded football, and opponents Bournemouth concede a load of shots (236 = 16.9 per game), shots on target (92 = 6.57 per game) and goals (31) away from home, and this price looks massive.
We'll also chance SUMMERVILLE 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET at 7/1 too given how many attempts and attempts on target the Cherries face on their travels, with this bet landing in two of his last seven. And, given how open this game could become and how often West Ham will give him the ball, we'll have a sprinkle on SUMMERVILLE 3+ SHOTS ON TARGET too.
High-volume-shooter Iliman Ndiaye fired two shots on target for Everton in Bournemouth's last away game, Mateus Mane had two on target before that for Wolves, and Anthony Gordon has three on target as a late sub in the Cherries' FA Cup exit at Newcastle, highlighting that the higher lines are worth taking here.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 13:00 GMT (19/02/26)
Manchester City vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
This will be the fourth meeting of the season between Manchester City and Newcastle, with the Magpies winning the league clash and City winning both Carabao Cup matches. Pep Guardiola's side are strongly fancied to make it a hat-trick here, which makes sense given their impressive run of form.
It's six wins in seven for the Cityzens, whose only blemish came at Tottenham when throwing away a 2-0 lead. They will be right at it here, especially as they have watched Arsenal drop points in back-to-back games.
Newcastle have turned a corner though, winning all of their last three, all away from home. They start the weekend in 10th and in need of a good run of form to get back into the European shake up.
Tensions are always high when these teams meet, with some big card counts, and that looks a decent starting point here. Joelinton was my first port of call as he's been booked in six of his last seven games against Manchester City but he's 7/4, which is a tad too short, but I was pleasantly surprised to see BERNARDO SILVA TO BE CARDED available at 7/2.
He is City's most carded player this season with 11 in all competitions at an average of 0.40 per 90, making the price on offer huge value. Factor in he's been booked in three of the last four head-to-heads with Newcastle and this looks a cracking bet.
Silva is missing his usual sparring partner Bruno Guimaraes, but Newcastle's midfield is dynamic enough to cause him problems, and Joelinton could well be back which would be a huge plus. I wouldn't put anyone off the Silva-Joelinton double at around 9/1.
ANTHONY GORDON had a big night in Azerbaijan in midweek, scoring four times, and he looks overpriced at evens to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET. It's highly likely with the Champions League tie all but over that Eddie Howe elects to play a full strength team here, which would see Gordon start.
Given he's been playing as a striker of late, with Nick Woltemade playing in midfield, this bet should have a great chance against a City team who continue to be defensively vulnerable.
Gordon will be full of confidence after his four-goal-haul, a game he also took six shots on target, with the Englishman averaging 1.33 shots on target per 90 across all competitions this term.
Manchester City have faced 12.5 shots and 4.33 shots on target per game over their last six in the league, so are far from water-tight.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 15:50 GMT (19/02/26)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
