World Cup qualifying betting tips: Israel v Scotland best bets and preview
Scotland travel to Israel for their second World Cup qualifier, and Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Israel v Scotland
1pt Over 2.5 goals at 31/20 (Betfair)
Scotland faced a tough fixture in their World Cup qualifying opener, hosting a progressive Austria team who are heavily fancied to claim second spot in the group.
They twice came from behind to deny the Austrians victory though, a late John McGinn stunner earning Steve Clarke’s men a 2-2 draw, and that result will give them plenty of confidence coming into this match.
Scotland will surely see this group as a good opportunity to qualify for their first World Cup finals since 1998 – Denmark being the top seed most nations will have wanted to be drawn against – and a victory over Israel would really boost their hopes.
Israel will also be looking at Group F as a good opportunity to qualify for their first major tournament since 1970.
A 2-0 defeat at home to Denmark in their opening fixture will have been disappointing for Israel, but games against the likes of Scotland are the fixtures that Willibald Ruttensteiner’s men will need to target if they are to have any hope of qualifying.
Israel and Scotland meet so often nowadays it feels like a league fixture, with the two drawn in the same Nations League group, as well as meeting in the Euro 2020 semi-final play-off, a game which Scotland won on penalties.
The last two fixtures between these two have been dour affairs, and many people will be expecting much of the same this time around, but that may be an oversight, and with the bookies perhaps placing too much emphasis on recent meetings, we think there could be value in backing goals in this game.
The last two meetings have featured just one goal, but that can easily be explained away.
The 0-0 draw that these two played out in October was not a friendly, it was a Euro 2020 play-off semi-final, with a huge amount at stake. The two sides can be forgiven for erring on the side of caution in that fixture, particularly Scotland, as they progressed via a penalty shootout.
The last time these two met ended in a 1-0 victory for Israel, but Scotland again can claim unconventional circumstances for this defeat, given six days prior they had beaten Serbia on penalties to claim a place at Euro 2020 – sore heads perhaps.
It is worth remembering that the two games prior involving these sides bore witness to seven goals.
As counterintuitive as it may seem, long-term betting is not about picking out the most likely outcome, it is about picking out the selection offering the most value.
In the last four meetings between these two sides, OVER 2.5 GOALS has been priced up at evens, 11/10, evens and 5/4, yet in this fixture it is available to back at as big as 31/20.
Has much changed between now and those four fixtures, or is this just a case of an overreaction to a cognitive bias brought on by the memory of recent fixtures involving these two?
Israel v Scotland best bets and score prediction
- Over 2.5 goals at 31/20 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Israel 1-2 Scotland (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1600 GMT (26/03/21)
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