Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts Inter +0.0 Asian handicap at 51/50 (bet365)
*all bets in 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 21/1
- Inter to win
- Hakan Calhanoglu 1+ shot on target
- Joshua Kimmich to be carded
Inter have a 2-1 lead at the halfway stage of their Champions League quarter-final with Bayern Munich after Davide Frattesi’s late winner capped a dramatic first leg.
The Nerazzurri took the lead on 38 minutes as Lautaro Martinez finished off a slick counter attack.
Five minutes from time, Bayern equalised through Thomas Muller and from that point, the expectation was the Barvarians would nick it. But it was Inter who had the last say, striking on 88 minutes to take an invaluable one-goal advantage back to San Siro.
Domestically, both sides top their divisions.
Wednesday’s hosts beat Cagliari at the weekend to maintain a three-point cushion at the top of Serie A.
Bayern shared the spoils in Der Klassiker on Saturday but are six clear at the top of the Bundesliga.
All set for an interesting clash on Wednesday, then.
What are the best bets?
I don’t think it is a bold statement to say Simone Inzaghi is a far superior manager to Vincent Kompany.
The latter has done impressive work but lacks experience at elite level and there have always been questions over his credentials during big games, stretching back to his days at Turf Moor.
In the Bundesliga, Bayern are flat-track bullies. They’ve won 14 of 16 games against bottom-half teams but dropped points in six of 13 games against the top-half sides.
In the Champions League, they’ve lost at Villa Park, Camp Nou, Feyenoord and in the first leg against Inter.
They cruised past Bayer Leverkusen in the last round but made real hard work of a two-legged clash with Celtic in the round prior.
Opponents INTER are unbeaten in 12 (W9 D3) and have only lost five times all season.
On the continent, they’ve kept clean sheets in eight of 11 games and are a goal to the good here.
The dynamic of this clash should suit them perfectly and although the hosts' price in the 1x2 is large I am going to err on the side of caution and take them +0.0 ASIAN HANDICAP at a shade of odds-against.
This is essentially the same as backing DRAW NO BET but the price on the former is a chunk bigger.
Team news
Inzaghi rotated at the weekend, opting to give some of his star men a rest. The likes of Alessandro Bastoni, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Marcus Thuram will all return from the off.
Kristjan Asllani is back available having served his suspension but the hosts will be without the injured Piotr Zielinski and Denzel Dumfries.
As for Bayern, Jamal Musiala is ruled out for the rest of the season. Muller will most likely start in the number 10 slot in his absence but Raphael Guerreiro is also in with a shot after impressing in that role a couple of times this season. The latter may have to settle for a spot at full-back.
This game comes too soon for Manuel Neuer meaning Jonas Urbig will start in goal.
Alphonso Davies and Dayot Upamecano are ruled out with injuries in defence.
After his goal at the weekend, Serge Gnabry has put some pressure on Leroy Sane.
Predicted line-ups
Inter: Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Martinez, Thuram.
Bayern: Urbig; Laimer, Dier, Kim, Guerreiro; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Guerreiro, Sane; Kane.
Match facts
- The last six meetings between Internazionale and Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League have seen both sides win three times each, while only one of those six victories has been achieved by the team playing at home (Bayern winning 2-0 at home in November 2022).
- Bayern Munich have won all four of their away games against Internazionale in European competition, including all three in the UEFA Champions League without conceding a single goal (2-0 in 2006, 1-0 in 2011 and 2-0 in 2022). Indeed, this is the Italian side’s longest losing streak at home to an opponent across all European competitions (4).
- Internazionale have progressed from 21 of their previous 23 knockout stage ties in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League after winning the first leg. One of those two eliminations did come last season, however, losing on penalties against Atlético de Madrid in the last 16, after winning 1-0 in the first leg (2-2 on aggregate, lost 3-2 on pens).
- Bayern Munich have only progressed from one of their last eight UEFA Champions League knockout stage ties after losing the first leg, although that did come in the most recent one (3-1 on aggregate v Lazio in the last 16 last season).
- Internazionale are unbeaten in their last 14 home games in the UEFA Champions League (W12 D2). This is now the longest current run in the competition, after they ended Bayern Munich’s 22-game streak at the Allianz Arena in the first leg of this tie.
- Bayern Munich have the best expected goal difference in the UEFA Champions League this season (+19.3 – 32.6 xG for, 13.3 xG against), though their actual goal difference is just +13 (29 scored, 16 conceded). This represents the biggest negative difference of any side to qualify from the league phase (-6.3).
- Internazionale applied 573 high-intensity pressures in the first leg against Bayern Munich; the most by a team in a UEFA Champions League game this season.
- Lautaro Martínez has scored in each of his last four UEFA Champions League games, and could become the first Internazionale player to net in five consecutive appearances in the competition. Only two players have scored more for Inter in a single Champions League campaign than the Argentinean this season (7): Hernán Crespo in 2002-03 (9) and Samuel Eto’o in 2010-11 (8). (See graphic on next page)
- Thomas Müller (162) could equal Lionel Messi (163) for UEFA Champions League appearances, leaving him only behind Cristiano Ronaldo (183) and Iker Casillas (177) overall. Müller scored in the first leg of this tie, becoming the oldest player to score in a knockout stage game in the competition for Bayern Munich (35y 207d).
- Internazionale’s Benjamin Pavard could make his 50th UEFA Champions League appearance (currently on 49). With 40 wins from his 49 games to date (D5 L4), this would already be the most victories by a player within their first 50 matches in the competition’s history.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (15/04/25)
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