Yet another massive match-up in the Sky Bet Championship race for the play-offs. Liam Kelly previews Huddersfield's hosting of QPR, picking out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 12/5 (bet365)
It's a surprise to many that Huddersfield occupy third place entering this round of fixtures, not least the Infogol expected goals (xG) table, who have them in 13th based on underlying numbers.
That doesn't count for much when considering the magnitude of this game, but the numbers do give us an idea of how good teams really are in terms of creating and conceding chances.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Huddersfield 1/1 | Draw 5/2 | QPR 13/5
On that basis, this game may be more closely-matched than the actual league table would have you believe.
Unfortunately for QPR, they come into this contest in torrid form, losing each of their last five Championship fixtures to almost drop out of the play-off picture.
Their most recent result, a 3-2 defeat to Preston, came in a match filled with scoring chances (xG: PNE 3.46 - 2.48 QPR), but that is very much an outlier on recent form. QPR struggled to create chances in their previous nine matches, averaging 1.12 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
Despite the poor form, QPR's defensive process was far from horrendous in the same period.
Prior to the Preston game last time out, Mark Warburton's side conceded 1.41 expected goals against (xGA) on average, a number bumped up by teams in form such as Fulham and Nottingham Forest.
With that in mind, UNDER 1.5 GOALS makes appeal.
Huddersfield haven't exactly set the league alight in their last ten matches, either, despite edging up the table.
They've created chances equating to just 1.08 xGF per game in that time, a figure that would suggest Carlos Corberán's men are rather stumbling into the play-offs rather than surging.
From a defensive standpoint, Huddersfield have continued to be strong, making a low-scoring game a likely outcome. Don't be surprised if the remainder of their season is filled with nervy affairs on this evidence.
Admittedly, choosing Under 1.5 Goals leaves us open to the randomness of game state, but, at the prices, a fairly non-descript game for the neutral might be the way to go.
Huddersfield v QPR best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 12/5 (bet365)
Score prediction: Huddersfield 1-0 QPR (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (13/04/21)
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