Football betting tips: World Cup qualifiers
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals at 23/20 (General)
1pt Over 3.5 goals at 3/1 (Betfred)
1pt Vangelis Pavlidis to score anytime at 11/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Somehow Scotland are level on points with Denmark at the top of Group C and already guaranteed a play-off spot with two World Cup qualifiers remaining. By Steve Clarke's own admission, they don't especially deserve it.
Despite being completely dominated by Greece when these sides met at Hampden last month, Scotland won 3-1. They backed that up with a 2-1 victory over Belarus that Clarke described as one of the worst performances of his six-year reign.
To take qualification to a winner-takes-all clash at Hampden on Tuesday, with it safe to assume the current group leaders will make light work of Belarus, Scotland will surely have to play much better than they managed during the last international break.
Don't count on it. Throughout Clarke's period at the helm the Tartan Army have tended to grind their way to success. If they are to become the first Scotland team to reach the World Cup since 1998, it's unlikely to be pretty.
🗣️ "Possibly as disappointed as I've been over the whole 72 games [in charge]"
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) October 12, 2025
Steve Clarke reflects on Scotland's 2-1 win over Belarus in World Cup qualifying 💬 pic.twitter.com/Qw5KP4nVia
While small sample sizes can be misleading, the teams' underlying numbers do provide helpful extra context. Scotland have conceded just twice from an expected goals against (xGA) total of 4.5 and scored seven goals from 5.3 xG. Greece, meanwhile, have conceded 10 times from 5.5 xGA.
The Scots have been fortunate. The Greeks have not.
A consequence of the vistors' overperformance is the likelihood of goals appears to have been underestimated, with unders a general 7/10 and OVER 2.5 GOALS a generous 23/20. All of Greece's last seven fixtures have gone overs, with five of those also seeing OVER 3.5 GOALS - a selection that can be backed at 3/1.
With this game a dead-rubber from the hosts' perspective there is little reason to suspect their run of entertaining home contests will end.
I'll also back their main striker VANGELIS PAVLIDIS to be the one to finally punish this lacklustre defence.
He is in superb form, scoring 13 goals in 14 appearances for Benfica in Portuguese domestic football this season.
I'm happy enough with 11/5 for him TO SCORE ANYTIME, but he has made a habit of scoring more than one and is 14/1 for a brace and 80/1 for a hat-trick.
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (13/11/25)
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