Free betting tips and match preview: Champions League - RB Leipzig v PSG
We've enjoyed winners across the two European competitions and we're hoping for more with two best bets for RB Leipzig v PSG.
Recommended bets
1pt Marcel Sabitzer to score anytime at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
RB Leipzig v PSG
- 20:00 BST kick-off on Tuesday August 18 - BT Sport 1
- Match odds: RB Leipzig 16/5 | Draw 14/5 | PSG 4/5
PSG may be the favourites for some to go on and win the Champions League title but they face tough competition at the semi-final stage with underdogs RB Leipzig standing in their way.
The Bundesliga outfit were a 5/2 selection in Sporting Life's outright preview to reach the quarter-final stage and they've gone beyond those expectations by dumping Atletico Madrid out in the last round.
PSG came from behind to beat Atalanta. Two very late goals was the benchmark for the drama that came in the following days but PSG will know this is their best ever opportunity to win Europe's top prize.
Even with Leipzig priced at 7/4 to progress, it would be foolish to write off their chances of making the final. That victory over Atletico came despite losing their top goalscorer in Timo Werner; posting an xG of 1.09 with Atletico's 1.10 being aided massively by a penalty.
Dani Olmo's goal carried a 28% probability while Marcel Halstenberg had an effort with an xG rate of 0.43. So while Tyler Adams' goal may be considered lucky with the deflection, the chances they were creating around that demonstrates that it was deserved.
The fact is that Leipzig are a tough side to beat. Their four Bundesliga defeats was the joint-lowest with Bayern and it was the high number of draws that seriously affected their title challenge. It could be argued that they are perhaps a perfect knockout team.
We can look to the talent of this PSG team and their quite frankly terrifying forward line if you're in the opposition defence but Leipzig have demonstrated their ability to work as a unit; Julian Nagelsmann's arrival last summer certainly elevated the club to the next level.
One player who has thrived under his leadership is Marcel Sabitzer. The midfielder has 16 goals across all competitions this season with four of them coming in this competition.
He lined up on the right side of an attacking midfield trio against Atletico and it would be fair to assume that he could play in a similar role here. Even if he is more central, he has proven throughout the season that he can score.
Sabitzer has posted at least one shot in each of his eight Champions League appearances and netted a brace from centre midfield in the 3-0 win over Tottenham in their round of 16 second leg clash.
Given how Leipzig are the outsiders here, there is certainly appeal in the 9/2 price available on Sabitzer scoring anytime. Both Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund have demonstrated that you can get past this PSG defence in the knockout rounds.
All the pressure is on PSG here and history has shown that they don't necessarily cope as well as they would have hoped with it in the Champions League.
Leipzig will relish their underdogs tag as they aim to continue their phenomenal rise up the leagues. They know victory would mean a likely final against Bundesliga rivals Bayern Munich, and they demonstrated in their last meeting that they can get the better of the chances.
This seems like a game that will require longer than 90 minutes and taking the draw at 14/5 looks the best outright option. The past week has demonstrated that the underdog can shine in this temporary environment.
Score prediction: RB Leipzig 2-2 PSG (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Marcel Sabitzer to score anytime at 9/2
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 8/5
Opta facts
- This will be the first ever competitive meeting between RB Leipzig and Paris SG.
- Both RB Leipzig and Paris SG are aiming to reach their first ever European Cup/Champions League final. RB Leipzig would be the seventh different German team to reach the final (second only to English sides), while PSG would be the first French team to reach the showpiece since Monaco in 2003-04.
- Paris SG have progressed from all three of their European knockout ties with German opponents, including eliminating Borussia Dortmund in this year’s Champions League Last 16.
- Paris Saint-Germain have reached the UEFA Champions League semi-finals for the first time since the 1994-95 campaign, where they were eliminated over two legs against AC Milan (0-3 on aggregate). Only one of the previous seven French teams to reach the CL semi-finals has reached the final (Monaco in 2003-04).
- Paris Saint-Germain have found the back of the net in each of their last 33 Champions League games, only one behind the all-time record in major UEFA European competition (Real Madrid, 34 between 2011 and 2014). The last side to stop the Parisians scoring were Man City back in April 2016 (0-1) as they were eliminated from the Champions League quarter-finals.
- RB Leipzig are unbeaten in their last seven Champions League matches (W5 D2), having lost four of their first eight in the competition (W3 D1).
- RB Leipzig’s Marcel Sabitzer has been involved in six goals in his last six Champions League games (4 goals, 2 assists), assisting his side’s opening goal in their quarter-final victory over Atlético Madrid.
- At 33 years old, RB Leipzig’s Julian Nagelsmann could become the youngest manager to reach the Champions League final, taking the record from Didier Deschamps, who was 35 with Monaco in 2004.
- Since his debut in the competition in 2013-14, Paris Saint-Germain’s Neymar has provided more assists in the Champions League than any other player (23), including assisting their equaliser against Atalanta in the quarter-finals.
- Paris SG forward Kylian Mbappé has been directly involved in 10 goals in eight Champions League appearances in 2019-20 (5 goals, 5 goals); his best goal involvement total in a single campaign in the competition. The Frenchman has been involved in a Champions League goal on average every 48 minutes this term.
Odds correct as of 1730 BST on 17/08/20
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