French Open tennis betting tips: Day five preview including Pablo Cuevas v Stefanos Tsitsipas

Recommended bets

2pts over 33.5 games in Pablo Cuevas v Stefanos Tsitsipas at 5/6

1pt over 34.5 games in Marcos Giron v Thiago Monteiro at 5/6

1.5pts Aljaz Bedene to beat Nikola Milojevic at 9/10

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Pablo Cuevas v Stefanos Tsitsipas

I’ve always been a fan of Cuevas on clay and a tad surprised he’s never been beyond round three at Roland Garros.

He’ll probably go no further than round two this year given he faces the fifth seed here but I wouldn’t rule out an upset and can certainly see this going longer than the layers expect.

Having played a full week in Hamburg last week, Tsitsipas could have done without a five-set battle in the first round but he had to go the distance, coming from two sets down to beat another clay specialist, Jaume Munar.

Cuevas, who took four sets to beat qualifier Henri Laaksonen, has the tools to trouble the Greek on this surface and he showed that in Hamburg only last week when Tsitsipas edged a tight, high-quality match 7-5 6-4.

The Uruguayan blew five break points towards the end of the first set and his chance was missed.

His underrated serve denied Tsitsipas many chances but ultimately the man who took his opportunities won.

That may well be the case again here but over 33.5 games in the match looks worthy of support at 5/6.

Conditions will likely be even slower than Hamburg, especially with the match scheduled last on Court Philippe Chatrier, and that should only add to Cuevas’ chance.

Marcos Giron v Thiago Monteiro

Monteiro is a decent claycourter but he looks pretty short at 1/5 to win this match.

Yes, he has much more experience on this surface than his American foe but he’s hardly renowned for his consistency and rarely dominates any match.

Giron is in decent nick having battled past Quentin Halys in round one and while I would expect the Brazilian to progress, I doubt he’ll do so in fewer than 34.5 games.

His first-round win over a woefully out-of-sorts Nikoloz Basilashvili (it was the Georgian’s sixth straight loss) was the first time Monteiro has ever won a best-of-five-sets match under a 34.5-game line.

I’ll bet against a repeat.

Nikola Milojevic v Aljaz Bedene

Milojevic is enjoying a fine run at Roland Garros – he’s now into his second week having come through qualifying, winning all three matches in a final set.

However, the world number 144 may have met his match in Bedene, a wily clay operator, who looks big at 9/10 here.

The former Briton’s serve could be a key factor in this contest. Often underrated, it was not broken in his four-set, first-round victory over another wild card, Arthur Rinderknech.

Looking back to 2019, Bedene held serve 74% of the time on clay; Milojevic’s equivalent figure was 72% despite him playing mainly on the Challenger Tour against lower-ranked opponents.

Milojevic did upset seed Filip Krajinovic in his opener – which doubtless has affected his price here - but the latter’s performance left a lot to be desired.

Bedene’s consistent tennis looks capable of winning the day and at 9/10 he looks value-added.

Posted at 2125 BST on 30/09/20

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