Free betting tips and match preview: Bundesliga - 1899 Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim take on RB Leipzig in Friday's Bundesliga fixture and Tom Carnduff has found value in the goalscorer market.
Recommended bets
1pt Christopher Nkunku to score anytime at 3/1
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Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig (19:30 BST, BT Sport)
The success of the visitors since the restart has been a serious topic of discussion in the Bundesliga and a team who have certainly found that to be true is RB Leipzig.
Julian Nagelsmann returns to his former club Hoffenheim with his current side experiencing mixed fortunes. Their previous three home outings have ended in draws while the two away fixtures finished in convincing victories over Mainz and Koln; where Leipzig found the net nine times across the two games.
Even with Hoffenheim looking to break into the top-six, Leipzig are heavily fancied for victory here and we should expect that home/away trend to continue. There is of course the fact that Alfred Schreuder left his role as Hoffenheim head coach in the week; a difference in future direction being the reason.
There is some temptation to consider the draw on value alone with a best price of 9/2 currently available. Five of Leipzig's last seven in the league have ended in the points being shared while the same can be said for two of Hoffenheim's last four.
The fact remains that Leipzig are a better team away than they are at home, and even without crowds urging the home team to attack, that pattern has carried on in recent weeks.
Nine of their 15 on the road have ended in victory while seven of the 15 at home have finished in a draw. Draws are what have actually held Leipzig back from a more serious push at the title with their eleven matched by Schalke as a season high.
There's enough confidence in recent away showings to back Leipzig for victory here though and with their price as short as 4/9, it is worth going with an away win with over 3.5 goals in the match to take the odds above even money.
The value lies elsewhere though and backing Christopher Nkunku to get onto the scoresheet at anytime goalscorer odds of 3/1. Nkunku is better known for his assists and the role he plays in providing Werner with goals, but the statistics highlight how he should have had more on his own tally.
The midfielder has scored five in the Bundesliga this season but his xG stands at 8.17; that is the biggest xG difference (positive or negative) in the entire Leipzig squad.
His goal caught the eye in their win over Koln when he connected with a through ball to chip the ball over the goalkeeper and into the net. That ability to read the play and make the runs has contributed to that current xG number.
Given that Hoffenheim have conceded in 12 of their 14 games across all competitions on this side of the winter break, we should expect this Leipzig attack to find a way through and hit the net more than once. In fact, Sky Bet make it even money that Leipzig score three or more on Friday night.
So while the focus is on Werner given his reported move to Chelsea, or Patrik Schick and the three goals scored in his last three starts, the real goalscorer value is with Nkunku and the much better odds that he provides.
The Friday night games have been somewhat hit-and-miss since the restart with the Berlin derby giving us four goals while others have been settled by the single strike.
This should be an entertaining fixture given the sides involved though and one where we should expect the over 3.5 line to be hit; that has happened in three of Leipzig's five games since the restart.
Backing a Leipzig win looks a solid way to begin the weekend, but with little value in the outright market, it's better to side with Nkunku hitting the net at any point across the 90 minutes.
Score prediction: Hoffenheim 1-3 RB Leipzig (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1040 BST (11/06/20)
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