Will Bayern Munich win yet another Bundesliga title? Tom Carnduff previews the 2021/22 Bundesliga season and has found two best bets.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga outright
5pts RB Leipzig to win the Bundesliga (without Bayern Munich) at 11/4 (BetVictor)
5pts Borussia Mönchengladbach to finish in the top-four at 9/4 (bet365)
When it comes to Germany's top-flight, all eyes will be on Bayern Munich as they look to win their tenth consecutive Bundesliga title. The Bavarians' dominance of the division has also led to glory on the European stage and it's now a case of battling to be the best of the rest - we should expect the title to remain at the Allianz Arena.
They're as short as 1/7 in places and there is simply no value in backing them at that price - the same applies to including them in any league winner accumulators.
A summer of change in the dugout has seen them attract Julian Nagelsmann from RB Leipzig as their new head coach - he returns 'home' having been born in Landsberg am Lech, around an hour away from Munich.
Nagelsmann brings talented centre-back Dayot Upamecano with him while Omar Richards is given a chance to shine following his arrival from Sky Bet Championship side Reading. It's hardly been a hive of activity in terms of player arrivals but when you possess a side with such quality in every position, it simply doesn't need to be.
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga again?
It's very, very likely that we'll see the team in red lifting the Bundesliga trophy again in May.
Infogol gives them a huge 80.1% chance of winning the division in 2021/22. Even if things go wrong, it's only viewed as a 4.3% chance that they finish third or lower. We should see them leading the way throughout the season and it's a tough ask for anyone to catch them.
The one question will be how they adapt to a new head coach with new ideas. The Niko Kovac era saw them as low as 7th at one stage in 2019/20 before Hansi Flick guided them to glory - both domestically and in the Champions League. For the chasing pack, they will be hoping that history repeats itself in those early stages.
How to watch the Bundesliga in the UK
Sky Sports have confirmed that they will be broadcasting the Bundesliga in the UK and Ireland for the next four seasons.
The coverage of the league will begin at 19:30 BST on Friday August 13 as champions Bayern Munich travel to Borussia Monchengladbach before Borussia Dortmund take on Eintracht Frankfurt on the Saturday at 17:30 BST.
The premium fixture of each weekend will be shown live every Saturday at 17:30 BST on Sky Sports Football, with further matches broadcast via Sky Sports' other channels including Sky Sports YouTube.
With Bayern expected to win another title, who will be the best of the rest?
Borussia Dortmund are odds-on across the board to be runners-up but the pressure is on Donyell Malen to fill the significant void left by Jadon Sancho's departure for Manchester United.
Instead, at a best price of 11/4, the value is with backing RB LEIPZIG TO WIN THE BUNDESLIGA WITHOUT BAYERN MUNICH. While Nagelsmann's departure is significant, they've looked to continue the project with the appointment of Jesse Marsch and he can get the best out of this group.
The departures of Upamecano and Ibrahima Konate have seen a combined income of €84m – funds which have allowed the arrival of the prolific Andre Silva from Eintracht Frankfurt to lead the attack. The defence will see others given the chance to shine while also being boosted by the signing of Mohamed Simakan from Strasbourg.
There will be questions about how the defence will cope but the signing of Silva is significant. Leipzig lacked a go-to goalscorer in 2020/21 - Yussuf Poulsen led the way with 11 in all competitions - but Silva will fill the void left from when Timo Werner left for Chelsea last summer.
How Silva will adjust to not having Filip Kostic next to him remains to be seen - he had 17 assists for Frankfurt last season - but Leipzig have enough creative and talented figures available to play provider. We can expect this to be another 20-goal season for the forward.
The large core of the squad is the same that has been around the top-end of the Bundesliga table across the past few seasons. Even if a big-hitter does depart before the conclusion of the window, we can be confident in their scouting system to find a suitable replacement.
Who will finish in the top-four?
We can be fairly certain in the top-three finishing with Bayern Munich (99.5% chance according to Infogol), Borussia Dortmund (88.6%) and RB Leipzig (78.7%) involved but the race for fourth sees a handful of teams having a serious chance of securing Champions League football.
Teams such as Bayer Leverkusen (26.1%) have been regulars around this area of the table but the odds give an implied probability of near double the Infogol prediction (50%) so it's best to stay clear this season.
Instead, the best value in the ‘chasing pack’ comes in the 9/4 on BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH TO FINISH IN THE TOP-FOUR. They finished in a disappointing 8th last season but the drop off in results can be explained by the announcement that then-head coach Marco Rose was joining Dortmund in mid-February.
Adi Hütter has arrived after finishing fifth with Eintracht Frankfurt in 2020/21 - with Infogol's model having their expected position as fourth - and a lack of European football can see them solely focus on domestic matters this time around.
It's been a quiet window in terms of incomings but there didn't need to be a significant amount of change given the talent throughout the squad. Hannes Wolf arrives from Leipzig while they've trimmed down numbers by allowing those who struggled for minutes to leave.
The positive for Mönchengladbach is that Hütter has always had a frequent goalscorer in his squad - that will be a significant point of interest to the likes of Lars Stindl, Marcus Thuram and Alassane Pléa who will look to follow in the footsteps of Silva, Luka Jovic (both Frankfurt) and Guillaume Hoarau (Young Boys).
With a talented squad and firepower up front, Mönchengladbach can make a swift return to Europe’s top club competition and represent great value in the market to finish in the top-four this season.
Bundesliga 2021-22: Outright best bets
5pts RB Leipzig to win the Bundesliga (without Bayern Munich) at 11/4 (BetVictor)
5pts Borussia Mönchengladbach to finish in the top-four at 9/4 (bet365)
Odds correct at 1730 BST (04/08/21)
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