Football betting tips: Nations League
17:00 - Georgia vs Northern Ireland
2pts Georgia 13+ total shots at evens (bet365)
0.5pt Georgia 15+ total shots at 9/4 (bet365)
19:45 - Italy vs Belgium
1pt Maxim De Cuyper 2+ total shots at 3/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Maxim De Cuyper 1+ shot on target at 23/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
19:45 - Turkiye vs France
0.5pt Arda Guler 1+ assist at 11/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Georgia vs Northern Ireland
- Kick-off: Friday, 17:00 BST
- TV: BBC Two
- Live odds, form and stats
Neither Georgia or Northern Ireland qualified for the 2026 World Cup, having to watch the competition from home, and after a couple of friendlies in June, the pair meet in a 'competitive' match in the Nations League.
They clash in League B of said competition after Northern Ireland won their League C group last time around and Georgia dismantled Armenia in their promotion/relegation play-off to maintain League B status.
The pair have been drawn in a group with Ukraine and Hungary, with the winner of the group earning promotion to League A, runner-up entering a promotion/relegation play-off with a League A team, third place playing a play-off against a Group C team and bottom of the group getting flat out relegated.
It's a big step up for the Northern Irish side who went W3 D2 L1 in an easy League C group, while Georgia were extremely competitive at this level in the last edition of the Nations League.
The hosts are odds-on to get the win but the angle I love is to back GEORGIA SHOTS.
We can back the hosts to have 13+ TOTAL SHOTS at even money and that looks a solid bet. This bet landed in all four Nations League home games against decent opposition in Czechia, Albania and Ukraine, as well as Armenia in the play-off, with the Georgians averaging 15.8 shots per game.
It was more of the same in World Cup qualifying where they hit 15 at home to both Bulgaria and a very good Turkiye team, only failing to get close to the required number against eventual world champions Spain (6).
Northern Ireland's shots against numbers in the Nations League were good but remember they were playing in the league below against teams ranked close to 100 in the FIFA World Rankings. In World Cup qualifying they conceded 16 away at Slovakia and 19 at Italy in the play-off.
The low line looks very manageable for a shot-happy Georgia side, and we'll also take a swing on 15+ TOTAL SHOTS at 9/4, a bet that landed in three of four Nations League home games and two of three World Cup qualifying home games.
Italy vs Belgium
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:45 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
It's another new dawn for Italian football, well sort of, as Euro 2020 winning manager Roberto Mancini returns to the dugout after a shocking time for the Italian national team that saw them fail to qualify for both the 2022 and 2026 World Cups, while getting eliminated in the first knockout round of Euro 2024.
Who knows what to expect from them here. On paper Italy they have a talented young squad, but Italian football in general is struggling at the moment on the European and world stage across both domestic and international level.
Belgium also have a new manager in the dugout with Mark van Bommel taking over from Domenico Tedesco, but the team look to be on the up again after a brief lull. They over-performed relative to expectation at the World Cup, getting to the quarter-finals and losing in the last kick of the game to eventual winners Spain.
MAXIM DE CUYPER caught the eye in the USA and has continued to do so for Brighton this season, with his attacking output excellent. At the World Cup he averaged 2.03 shots and 1.22 shots on target per 90 as one of his nations biggest attacking threats.
He averaged 2.40 shots and 1.1 shots on target per 90 in World Cup qualifying too, so against an Italy side in transition, we should back more of the same from De Cuyper here, with both the 23/10 for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET and the 3/1 for 2+ TOTAL SHOTS appealing.
Turkiye vs France
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:45 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Zinedine Zidane takes charge of his first game as an international manager, his first game anywhere as a coach since 2021 in fact, as his star-studded France team head to Turkiye.
Les Bleus enter new territory having been coached by Didier Deschamps for the last 14 years, and their first assignment is a tricky one against a good Turkiye team who did impress at the World Cup despite a group stage exit.
It's been a tough away day in the last few cycles, with Turkiye losing just three of their last 20 home games across all competitions and friendlies. However, those defeats were inflicted by top tier opponents, Croatia back in 2023, Portugal in 2024 and Spain in 2025, with no major scalps taken, so the 6/1 about the hosts to win, while tempting, is left alone.
This France team has so much firepower that it really wouldn't be a surprise to see them blow Turkiye apart here, but they do leave gaps and concede goals so I do expect the hosts to get on the scoresheet.
If they are to do anything in attack, the chances are that ARDA GULER will have something to do with it, and his price of 11/2 for 1+ ASSIST looks very big.
He made four assists in World Cup qualifying, created 12 chances and three big chances while averaging 0.25 xA per 90. He is the star power for Turkiye, makes them tick and comes into this break in good form for Real Madrid, averaging 0.52 assists and 0.78 expected assists per 90.
Odds correct at 14:50 BST (18/09/26)
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