Friday best bets: Nations League tips for October 2 2026

Football betting tips: Nations League

19:45 - France vs Italy

1pt Italy to beat France (Draw No Bet) at 9/2 (Paddy Power)

19:45 - Ukraine vs N Ireland

1pt Shea Charles 2+ shots at 11/4 (bet365, William Hill)

0.5pt Charles 3+ shots at 10/1 (bet365)

1pt Patrick Kelly 2+ shots at 2/1 (bet365, William Hill)

19:45 - Bosnia vs Sweden

1.5pts Viktor Gyokeres to score anytime at 7/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)

France vs Italy

• Kick-off: Friday, 19:45 BST
• TV: Amazon Prime PPV
• Live odds, form and stats

It hasn't been a blockbuster start for Zinedine Zidane but his team got the job done with a couple of 1-0 wins away to Turkey and Belgium.

The first was decided by the subsequently injured Kylian Mbappe's second-half goal, and the second needed an 88th-minute strike from Michael Olise, triggering quite the reaction from the new France manager.

ITALY showed plenty in their first game of Roberto Mancini's second spell in charge but were ultimately beaten 2-0 at home by Belgium. They bounced back to thrash Turkey 4-1 away, dominating the match by racing into a 3-0 lead after just 27 minutes.

With these early days for both coaches, France not at their swashbuckling best and without their talismanic captain I'm prepared to back the visitors at 9/2 DRAW NO BET.

Italy won 3-1 in Paris in the last Nations League despite going behind after 12 seconds; the Azzurri were 5/1 for victory that night compared with the 6/1 this time around.

It wasn't the only poor result France suffered at home in the group stage two years ago as they were held to a goalless draw by Israel.

Ukraine vs N Ireland

• Kick-off: Friday, 19:45 BST
• TV: BBC Two
• Live odds, form and stats

SHEA CHARLES clearly took it upon himself as captain to drag his team to victory in their opening Nations League fixture. The Northern Ireland captain had five shots, eventually scoring a 98th-minute winner to seal a 1-0 victory away to Georgia.

He didn't have an attempt in the goalless draw with Hungary but at 11/4 is worth backing to have 2+ SHOTS against Ukraine.

It appears to be priced on his per 90 average of 0.59 shots for Fulham this season, where he plays a more defensively-minded role. Before leaving Southampton for £30m this summer he played in a position that more closely resembles how he operates for his country, and averaged 1.51 p90.

He has already shown attacking glimpses at Craven Cottage, having two attempts in a 23-minute cameo against Sunderland.

I'll also take the 10/1 about 3+ SHOTS. On top of his performance in Tbilisi this landed eight times in 46 appearances for club and country last season.

Another Irish midfielder is backed in this market.

PATRICK KELLY hasn't found the net for club or country since scoring his first international goal away to France in June, but boy is he trying.

The Barnsley man is averaging 2.07 shots and 0.43 shots on target per 90 this season. He had two attempts against Hungary, testing the keeper from distance and crashing a big chance (0.38 xG) against the post from close range following a throw-in.

He has registered 2+ SHOTS in six of his last seven and eight of his last 10 appearances, so looks worth a bet at 2/1.

Both firms offering top price (bet365 and William Hill) offer Super Sub style terms, something very much worth taking advantage of given that Kelly has been substituted around the 70th minute of Northern Ireland's opening two fixtures.

Bosnia vs Sweden

• Kick-off: Friday, 19:45 BST
• TV: Amazon Prime PPV
• Live odds, form and stats

VIKTOR GYOKERES delivered at 13/8 against Poland on Monday and is again backed TO SCORE ANYTIME at 7/4 for Friday's trip to Bosnia.

It continued an incredible run for Sweden's strikers with Graham Potter so far showing he knows how to get the best from them.

GYOKERES and Alexander Isak have now scored 11 goals between them across the team's past 10 games - nine in six outside the World Cup.

Isak is again absent and that is when Gyokeres thrives most, scoring five in his last three matches without the Liverpool frontman alongside him.

Odd correct at 17:00 BST (1/10/26)

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