Forest Green v Swindon: League Two preview and best bets
After posting a 7pt profit in last Saturday lunchtime’s EFL encounter, Michael Beardmore returns to pick out the best bets for Swindon’s trip to League Two leaders Forest Green.
Football betting tips: League Two
2pts Forest Green to win at 5/6 (General)
0.5pt Nicky Cadden to score anytime at 6/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
It’s been a pleasing start for both of the teams that meet at The New Lawn on Saturday – but you could forgive Swindon for being even more delighted than table-topping Forest Green.
While the Gloucestershire side’s ascent to the summit is little surprise after two play-off appearances in three seasons, their West Country rivals have been through the wringer.
An ownership battle that dragged the club through the courts threatened its very existence, and they were pegged as favourites for back-to-back relegations as a result.
But just before the season’s eve, Clem Morfuni took over as chairman, recruited Ben Garner as manager, filled out the squad and Swindon have probably surprised themselves, as well as many others, by sitting fifth.
Kick-off time: 12:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Forest Green 4/5 | Draw 12/5 | Swindon 10/3
For many reasons, though, I see this game being one too far for them.
Without wishing to take away from the excellent start the Robins have had, their four wins have come against teams currently sitting 24th, 15th, 22nd and 20th.
The fixture list has handed them a relatively easy start, in hindsight, and they have not beaten a top-half team – losing to Port Vale, drawing with Northampton and Tranmere – and the Infogol model suggests that on Expected Points, they should be four places lower, in ninth, than they are. A fine start, regardless, but not one to get carried away by.
Forest Green’s season, meanwhile, can already be divided into two halves, even this early – winning four high-scoring shoot-outs at the start of the campaign before a defeat by Vale saw them tighten up, keeping five consecutive clean sheets since.
Their expected goals for (xGF) figure of 1.46 per game is the fourth best in the division, and their expected goals against (xGA) total of 0.81 per game the second best. Swindon score highly in xGF (1.5) but less so in xGA (1.2), which Rovers - the fourth tier's top scorers - should capitalise on.
Those five successive clean sheets pointed me towards the ‘win to nil’ market but Rob Edwards' Rovers are a skinny 2/1 – that’s too small when you consider Swindon’s xGF is the division’s third highest.
Because Rovers’ past four wins have been 6-3, 1-0, 4-0 and 2-0, the overs/unders market is best avoided too, they can win big, they can win small – indeed it’s best to just back FOREST GREEN TO WIN at a very attractive 5/6 given they have won seven of 10 in the league.
They lead the table by four points after just 10 games and have comfortably been the division’s best side, certainly the best I've seen in person so far – thus, close to even money against an overachieving Swindon outfit provides real value.
Unsurprisingly, Rovers’ in-form strike pair of Jamille Matt and Matt Stevens, six goals apiece this term, lead the scoring markets at short odds and it’s foolish trying to separate the two.
Both are 6/4 to net at any time, but winger Nicky Cadden – who has scored just two fewer, with four, and is averaging 2.6 shots per game (higher than Stevens) – is a massive 6/1 in that market with Paddy Power and Betfair.
It’s worth a look at fellow winger/wing-back Kane Wilson (one goal) at 13/1, too, but his Scottish teammate is the more regular scorer, netting double figures for Morton two seasons back, so CADDEN TO SCORE ANYTIME is definitely worth a play.
Forest Green v Swindon best bets and score prediction
- Forest Green to win at 5/6 (General)
- Nicky Cadden to score anytime at 6/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
Score prediction: Forest Green 2-0 Swindon (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1600 BST (07/10/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
