Football betting tips: Thursday best bets
2pts Renan Lodi 3+ fouls in Marseille v Brighton at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Jarrod Bowen 2+ shots on target in West Ham v Freiburg at 3/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Rangers to beat Aris Limassol at 19/20 (General)
Marseille vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 17:45 BST, Thursday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 7/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/10
Ninad Barbadikar (@NinadB_06)
Brighton are in desperate need of some positivity after defeats Chelsea in the Carabao Cup followed by a 6-1 hammering by Unai Emery’s Aston Villa.
Roberto de Zerbi has said that fans will see “another Brighton” against Gennaro Gattuso’s outfit, however, that will be easier said than done against a chaotic and unpredictable Marseille side.
Gattuso’s first game saw his team take the lead twice against Monaco in the first half, eventually going on to lose 3-2. As if all that goal-mouth action wasn’t enough, Gattuso’s side accumulated four yellow cards, all in the second half. Which makes a lot of sense if he is attempting to create a side in his own persona.
🗣️ "Last time the first 11 was not the best first 11 we could play."
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) September 29, 2023
Roberto De Zerbi reflects on the last time Brighton faced Aston Villa at the end of the 22/23 campaign pic.twitter.com/9RIYA2kOHw
Therefore, given Brighton’s shaky start to European action against Athens, our attentions turn to the fouls market, no doubt there will be plenty in this one.
The Seagulls are likely to dominate the ball across ninety minutes, which puts the onus on Marseille to limit the incoming attacks. One player who will undoubtedly be overeager in his actions is Brazilian Renan Lodi.
The full-back recorded 29 fouls across 24 games for Forest on loan last season, and has continued in a similar vein for Marseille, accumulating a squad-high 12 fouls from six Ligue 1 matches.
Three plus fouls has landed thrice already in the league, therefore, backing Lodi to COMMIT 3+ FOULS against Brighton makes for an appealing bet.
Regardless of whether De Zerbi deploys Solly March or Simon Adingra, who are both foul magnets, Lodi’s aggression often gets the better of him and is likely to do so again, when facing Brighton.
Brighton have failed to keep a clean sheet so far this season, so expect goals and fouls to fly strong in France.
Score prediction: Marseille 2-3 Brighton (Sky Bet odds:16/1)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (04/10/23)
Freiburg v West Ham
- Kick-off time: 17:45 BST, Thursday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 6/4 | Draw 5/2 | Away 6/4
Ninad Barbadikar (@NinadB_06)
Both Freiburg and West Ham enjoyed winning starts to their Europa League campaigns and will now face off for the first time ever on matchday two.
West Ham carry a great deal of confidence into this after a 2-0 victory over Sheffield United which saw Jarrod Bowen score yet again, taking his tally to five in seven league matches.
Given that there isn’t much value in looking at the results market, Bowen is the one to focus on in this fixture.
The 26-year-old has had a superb start to the new season, scoring in back-to-back games against Liverpool and Sheffield United. The Englishman’s shooting averages have gone up, with him taking up more responsibility in the final third for the Hammers.
Last season, he was averaging 2.03 shots per 90 in the league and this season, that figure has gone up to 3.15 per 90, suggesting that Bowen’s shots will bring value in this clash.
Christian Streich’s Freiburg have developed a reputation for being a solid Bundesliga side who can hurt opponents with their direct style from wide areas and set-piece threats, keeping clean sheets in back-to-back Bundesliga games against Eintracht Frankfurt and Augsburg.
Looking at their underlying figures though, they have conceded over 12 shots in each of their league fixtures, which bodes well for West Ham’s attack and especially Bowen, who has been shot-happy this term.
Recording two shots on target in successive fixtures, it makes for excellent value to back Bowen 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
This landed against Liverpool and the Blades, and given the form he is in, Bowen is well worth backing to deliver again.
With Gareth Southgate set to announce his England squad soon for the upcoming international break, it seems like the perfect opportunity to Bowen to prove why he belongs up there amongst the best of the Three Lions squad.
Score prediction: Freiburg 0-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1325 BST (04/10/23)
Aris Limassol v Rangers
- Kick-off time: 17:45 BST, Thursday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 3
- Home 29/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 5/6
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
The defeat to Celtic at the beginning of September looked as if it would be Michael Beale's final game at the Rangers helm.
They kept faith, winning four on the bounce which included home success over Real Betis before the good work was undone by a 3-1 defeat to Aberdeen. The final straw.
Beale is out and Rangers - under the guidance of caretaker Steven Davis - head to Cyprus. Even with focus largely on the managerial hunt, this game presents a good chance to make it six points from six.
As such, the 19/20 best price on RANGERS TO WIN is worth backing.
This is an Aris side sat 5th in the Cypriot top-flight after six games - winless in four across all competitions. That includes the 3-2 loss at Sparta in their first group outing.
Yet the scoreline was closer than the game suggested. Sparta had 20 shots and nine on target to Aris' six shots and three on target.
Deadlock broken at Ibrox! 🔓
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) September 21, 2023
Rangers take a deserved lead against Real Betis đź’Ą#UEL pic.twitter.com/sq3AOQl3l5
They would fail to boast the best home record throughout either the 'main' stage of last season or in their Championship Group that followed, although they, of course, deserve credit for topping that at the end.
Their domestic rise under Aleksey Shpilevsky is an impressive one, but European competition may prove to be too challenging at this stage. It's worth consideration when near even money is on offer for their opponents throughout this campaign.
Score prediction: Aris Limassol 1-3 Rangers (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1410 BST (04/10/23)
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