Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
1pt e.w. Patrick Mainka to score first in Heidenheim vs Darmstadt at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
1pt Brighton to win and BTTS vs Burnley at 2/1 (Betfair, bet365)
1pt Man Utd to beat Bournemouth & under 3.5 goals at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Sheffield Wednesday to beat Stoke at 3/1 (bet365)
1pt Jordan Rhodes to score anytime in Blackpool vs Carlisle at 7/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Brighton vs Burnley
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Home 4/9 | Draw 15/4 | Away 11/2
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Brighton have seen both teams score in all 15 of their Premier League games this season. That tells you all you need to know about Roberto De Zerbi's side.
The fact that they have then won seven of those matches (47%) and four of their eight (50%) home matches suggests that the price of 2/1 about BRIGHTON TO WIN AND BTTS is completely out of whack.
They create an abundance of chances in every match (1.78 xGF per game), but always give their opponents a chance (1.55 xGA per game), no matter their level.
The opposition this weekend is Burnley, which may go someway to explaining the big price, but this is the type of game the Clarets will enjoy - a wide open contest with plenty of space, which could turn into a basketball match.
Vincent Kompany's side have scored in nine of their 15 league games this season, including four of their seven away days which have seen them net at Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Arsenal. It would be a surprise were they not to score at the Amex given Brighton's defensive record.
Odds correct at 1620 GMT (08/12/23)
Manchester United vs Bournemouth
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Home 8/15 | Draw 7/2 | Away 9/2
Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)
The over/under line for this match makes for amusing reading, with the bookies anticipating something of a goalfest.
When there's a skewed market like this it's worth asking what if the opposite is true?
Manchester United lost three of their first five Premier League games of the season, breaching the over 3.5 goals line twice, over 4.5 once and delivering for BTTS backers on three occasions.
But none of their subsequent 10 matches have involved more than three goals, half have ended 1-0 and just three saw both teams score.
And despite the sometimes justified but always hyperbolic criticism of Erik ten Hag's team, they have won seven of those fixtures.
Bournemouth meanwhile, who appear to be the latest top-flight hobby club for the footballing hipster under the guidance of progressive young Spanish coach Andoni Iraola, are priced far too short.
The Cherries are unbeaten in four matches, but wins at struggling duo Sheffield United and Crystal Palace should not be enough to have them going off a smidgen longer than Brentford did when they visited Old Trafford in October.
MAN UTD WIN & UNDER 3.5 GOALS is therefore advised.
A selection available at a best price of 7/4 with Sky Bet, a significant improvement on the manual double of United's 1/2 in the 1X2 and the 4/6 for under 3.5 goals.
Stoke vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/5
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
Tipping the basement boys, away from home when they have only won one point on their travels in the league this season? You better believe it.
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY have lost three of their four games in between their most recent two wins, but their performances have warranted a lot more than their solitary point suggests.
The emphatic win over high-flying Blackburn, a point against league leaders Leicester and a spirited showing at St Andrews is enough to convince me to back them TO WIN against Stoke.
Only Rotherham (4) have taken fewer points than the Potters (5) across their last six games.
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Blackpool vs Carlisle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/9 | Draw 16/5 | Away 21/4
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
Alfie May (14) and Jamie Reid (12), those are the only two players to score more League One goals then JORDAN RHODES this term. He has bagged 11 times in total, and has not had a barren spell longer than three games.
At 7/5, his price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals especially in a game Blackpool are heavily odds on to win.
Carlisle don’t travel well. They are yet to win on the road and have shipped 15 goals in nine games. Rhodes will certainly fancy his chances of adding to his tally when the Blues visit on Saturday.
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Heidenheim vs Darmstadt
- Saturday, 14:30 GMT
- Home Evens | Draw 13/5 | Away 5/2
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
Let's be honest, nobody is rushing to watch this game.
Heidenheim - sat 14th in the Bundesliga table - host Darmstadt in 16th. It's a huge game in the battle to avoid the drop from Germany's top-flight.
But the worst games can often throw up the best value, and it's well worth an each-way play on PATRICK MAINKA TO SCORE FIRST at a best price of 33/1.
Heidenheim's captain is yet to score this season, yet a meeting with a Darmstadt side who struggle to defend set-pieces among other things should present him with opportunities to strike.
Mainka - who scored four across all competitions in 22/23 - has posted at least two shots in three of his last five league outings.
Corners and free-kicks are a strength of Heidenheim's. Just Bochum can boast more shots from set-piece situations this season, while it's only Bayern, Leverkusen and Mönchengladbach who have scored a higher amount.
Odds correct at 1425 GMT (08/12/23)
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