Football betting tips: Easter Monday
1.5pts Stoke to beat Huddersfield at 11/10 (General)
1.5pts Lincoln to score 2+ goals vs Carlisle at evens (General)
1pt Sammie Szmodics to score anytime in Sunderland vs Blackburn at 11/4 (bet365)
1pt Shrewsbury to take 5+ corners vs Bristol Rovers at 11/10 (General)
1pt Conor Masterson to score anytime in Harrogate vs Gillingham at 9/1 (General)
0.5pt Kyle Bartley to score anytime in West Brom vs Watford at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Lewis Freestone to score anytime in Cheltenham vs Exeter at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
Stoke vs Huddersfield
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Monday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 5/2
When selected for televised coverage, Sky Sports would have thought this would be a significant game in the battle to avoid the drop.
It still is, but Stoke picking up some form under Steven Schumacher's guidance has seen them push five points clear of Monday's opponents.
By no means are they out of it but it's looking much better than it was a couple of weeks ago.
Three wins from their last five - two of those away at play-off hopefuls Hull and Preston - should give them plenty of confidence for this contest. Huddersfield haven't managed to sustain an upturn following a managerial chance of their own.
Odds-against prices on a STOKE WIN are available across the board, and that feels like a value selection from the Championship offering.
The Potters are striving for consistency in the long term but now they will take any points that they can. Three more should come against this Huddersfield side.
Sunderland vs Blackburn
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Monday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 5/2
Blackburn could consider themselves unlucky not to find the net in their Good Friday defeat to Ipswich.
They're still in relegation trouble but their high number of draws under John Eustace may be enough to keep them out of the bottom three come the end of the season.
This wouldn't have been an appealing game for me to get involved with, until I saw the 11/4 price available on SAMMIE SZMODICS TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Sky Bet Championship's leading scorer has 21 to his name, with 27 in all competitions if you add on the six he scored in three FA Cup appearances.
Three of those have come across his last five games, with a huge total of 17 shots in that same period.
It's not even a case of 'home comforts', with ten goals at Ewood Park and 11 on the road. This may not be a high-scoring contest but the value play is siding with Blackburn's main figure to strike.
West Brom vs Watford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Monday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 5/2 | Away 3/1
West Brom have a seven point cushion to seventh-placed Coventry heading into the final seven games of the season, and given the form of the Sky Blues, the Baggies will know they can't slip up.
Watford present an tougher test now than they did a few weeks ago, with Tom Cleverley in caretaker charge and the Hornets having won their last away game before nearly beating Leeds at the weekend.
However, the stats suggest this is a bit of a set-piece miss-match. Only Millwall and Swansea have generated more xG from set-plays than West Brom this season (13.5), while only Birmingham, Cardiff and Blackburn have allowed more xGA from dead-ball scenarios than Watford (13.1).
We can therefore expect the Baggies to create at least a few chances from corners or free-kicks, so chancing a bigger-priced West Brom defender TO SCORE ANYTIME makes appeal, and it's KYLE BARTLEY who gets the vote.
Bartley has averaged 0.13 xG per 90 this season, an excellent figure for a centre-half, and that explains why he has three goals to his name already this campaign.
Bristol Rovers vs Shrewsbury
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Monday
- Home 19/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 14/5
Shrewsbury look a tad overpriced to me here given my weird pitch theory that I had regarding the League One side.
Basically, at home, they have a huge surface but a seemingly narrow pitch in terms of where the lines are. Under Matt Taylor, probably value in nothing games at home, would avoid getting involved with them away.
Now Paul Hurst is in, it looked as if the opposite would apply. It's only a small sample size but it could be true - the home record is one win, two draws and four defeats while away it's three wins, one draw and one loss.
This has the look of a game that just screams 'draw' on the surface, and given the contrasting home/away performances we've seen since Hurst's return, looking elsewhere feels a tad safer.
You can get odds-against on 5+ SHREWSBURY CORNERS, which is worth backing.
This would have been a winning bet in the games at Lincoln, Northampton and Port Vale, while they fell one short when beating Reading.
Carlisle vs Lincoln
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Monday
- Home 4/1 | Draw 5/2 | Away 7/10
Carlisle won't be popular with many people after they beat Peterborough as 10/1 outsiders on Friday - a real coupon buster of a result.
They will need to be at the top of their game again on Monday as they welcome a Lincoln side who have been in sensational form under Michael Skubala's guidance.
They are unbeaten in their last 14 games - nine of their last 11 have ended in victory.
Rather than take the prices available on victory, you can bump it up to even money by siding with LINCOLN TO SCORE 2+ GOALS.
They may have only beaten Leyton Orient 1-0 last time out, but the three games prior saw them score at least five in each.
In fact, backing the Imps to score at least a couple has paid out in five of their last seven. Taking the opposition to do so in Carlisle home games has landed in six of their previous seven.
Lincoln can capitalise on a poor defence that has conceded 70 goals so far this season.
Cheltenham vs Exeter
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Monday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 23/10
Cheltenham's Friday win over Fleetwood has pulled them to within two points of safety as they welcome Exeter on Monday. The hosts look short enough in the 1X2 market, but I have found a whopping 25/1 punt that looks to be worth some shrapnel.
Exeter are League One's worst side at defending set-pieces according to xGA (14.8), being fortunate to have only conceded 11 goals, and while Cheltenham rank only ninth best for set-piece xG created (12.6) I think this will be an avenue of attack for the survival scrappers.
LEWIS FREESTONE TO SCORE ANYTIME looks a whopping price as a result, with the defender in fact Cheltenham's fourth biggest goal threat this season according to xG per 90 minutes (0.12).
We are getting this 25/1 price because he hasn't yet scored, but boy has he been knocking on the door. He has taken 34 shots this season equating to 3.45 xG, with 28 of those attempts coming from set-pieces, so as my buddy Jimmy the Punt would say; "he's due one".
Harrogate vs Gillingham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Monday
- Home 12/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 21/20
If you've read all the reasoning behind my bets in this article (no worries if you haven't), you will have spotted a theme. That's right, I am chancing big priced defenders to score anytime against weak defensive teams from set-pieces.
And in Harrogate vs Gillingham we have another. Hosts Harrogate are the worst defensive side from set-plays in League Two (18.2 xG - 17 goals conceded) while the Gils are the fourth-tier's best (19.5 xG) at creating them.
What's more, a certain Gilligham defender has already netted six times this season, with all six coming from set-pieces.
CONOR MASTERSON is the man we are backing TO SCORE ANYTIME, with the defender having taken 39 shots equating to 3.71 xG this season. Harrogate should struggle to contain him.
Odds correct at 1515 GMT (31/03/24)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
