Football betting tips: FA Cup
0.5pt Brighton to win at 2/1 (bet365)
All in 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 21/1
- Brighton to win
- Jack Hinshelwood to be carded
- Reece James 3+ tackles
All in 90 minutes
Brighton are reeling. They were pumped 7-0 at Nottingham Forest and need an instant reaction here or else their season will peter out into mid-table mediocrity.
They need a cup run, and manager Fabian Hürzeler needs a result or the pressure will continue to pile up.
The same goes for Chelsea, who continue to splutter, showing signs of weakness and really struggling to dominate at the same level they did early in the season.
Having been right on the cusp of a title race, the Blues are in a scrap just to finish in the top four, and if they fail to qualify for the Champions League and end trophy-less, history would suggest that Enzo Maresca could be in trouble.
So, we should expect both teams to play a full-strength team on Saturday, making for an exciting encounter.
What are the best bets?
As mentioned, Chelsea's recent performances have been concerning.
They've won just three of their last nine, beating League Two Morecambe, relegation threatened Wolves and a depleted West Ham, but even the display's in the latter two were underwhelming.
Winless in their last four away games, failing to beat Everton and Crystal Palace and losing to Ipswich and Manchester City, they really have lost the rhythm they had found in the first half of the season.
Worryingly, their xG process over those four away games has been poor, averaging 1.55 xGF and 1.54 xGA per game.
I think they could be there for the taking this weekend, especially with Nicolas Jackson injured. While Jackson may not be the most proficient finisher, his all-round game is critical to what Chelsea try to do. Christopher Nkunku is a good player but offers something different and requires the Blues to play in a different manner.
BRIGHTON need a reaction here, and it could well suit them to be playing a top team this weekend, so I'll back them TO WIN at 2/1.
The Seagulls have fared extremely well against the better teams this season, posting a W5 D3 L2 record against last season's top eight. At the Amex, they are unbeaten against such opponents.
Their style is well suited to playing against the higher calibre teams, especially those who want to dominate possession, so I'll happily back them to small stakes to cause what would be an upset in the FA Cup.
Target tackles
Bet below is void after Reece James was not named in the Chelsea squad
I'll also revisit the theory I've discussed many times in my column, and thankfully profited plenty from - that of Brighton opposition right backs making tackles.
Right backs taking on the Seagulls are averaging 3.6 tackles per game, with the 3+ tackle line covered in 17 of 21 games in which Kaoru Mitoma has started. The Japanese winger is the chief contributor to this theory, and this weekend let's hope REECE JAMES again starts at right back for Chelsea as his price to make 3+ TACKLES looks huge.
It's 11/5 that the Blues captain becomes the 18th right back this season to hit 3+ tackles against the Seagulls, and that simply looks massive. James hasn't been the most prolific tackler this season, averaging 1.3 per 90 this season, but last season in similarly limited game time he averaged 3.0 tackles per 90, and the season before saw him averaging 2.2.
So he has it in him to get stuck in, and the assignment this weekend dictates he will likely be asked to make plenty of tackles. There is a chance that Malo Gusto plays to give James a rest, and the Frenchman is 6/5 for the same bet, which I'd take should he start.
Team news
Brighton are missing Jason Steele, Igor Julio, Ferdi Kadioglu, James Milner and Solly March for this game, though Mats Wieffer, Carlos Baleba, Yasin Ayari and Pervis Estupinan will be touch and go.
New signing Eiran Cashin is eligible and could come in straight away alongside Lewis Dunk while Matt O'Riley should come into midfield.
Visiting Chelsea also have plenty of absentees with Mykhaylo Mudryk, Wesley Fofana, Omari Kellyman, Romeo Lavia and Benoit Badiashile continue to be out, and Nicolas Jackson and Marc Guiu both picked up knocks on Monday night to join the long list.
Predicted line-ups
Brighton: Verbruggen; Veltman, Dunk, Cashin, Lamptey; O'Riley, Hinshelwood; Adingra, Pedro, Mitoma; Welbeck
Chelsea: Jorgensen; James, Chalobah, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Neto, Palmer, Sancho; Nkunku
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (6/2/25)
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