Football betting tips: FA Cup final
Joe Townsend
2pts Bernardo Silva to commit 2+ fouls at 7/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Draw in 90 minutes at 16/5 (General)
0.5pt Enzo Fernandez to win Man of the Match at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bernardo Silva to win Man of the Match at 8/1 (bet365)
Jake Osgathorpe
2pts Joao Pedro to win 2+ fouls at 5/6 (William Hill)
1pt Manchester City to win to nil at 9/4 (bet365)
1pt Abdukodir Khusanov to commit 2+ fouls at 9/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Jimmy The Punt
1pt Marc Cucurella to score or assist at 6/1 (bet365)
Joe Townsend
Not since Manchester United's win over Crystal Palace in 2016 has the FA Cup final not involved at least one of Chelsea or Manchester City. Until now, though, they've avoided one another.
Their records over those nine years are surprisingly poor.
The Blues have lost in four of their five appearances, including all of their last three.
This is City's fourth consecutive final and they were shocked in the last two. First by Erik ten Hag's mid-table Manchester United and then by Eberechi Eze-inspired first-time winners Crystal Palace.
Two years ago nobody gave United a prayer.
Ten Hag seemed destined for the sack after a miserable season, and a Manchester City team much stronger than the one that will walk out at Wembley on Saturday, fresh from a third straight Premier League title and only 12 months on from winning the treble, were expected to make light work of them.
They hadn't lost in six months, an unbeaten run of 35 matches that included ending the league campaign with nine straight wins, and had thrashed United twice in the top flight that season to an aggregate scoreline of 6-1. And yet...
United went off at 13/5 to win in 90 minutes that day, with Palace 29/10 a year later. Chelsea are 4/1, a price that simply doesn't stack up - no matter the chaos that has engulfed Stamford Bridge this term.
The Blues have already shown their ability to find a performance when required under interim boss Calum McFarlane, earning a draw at The Etihad in his first stint in charge in January, beating Leeds to reach this stage three weeks ago and battling to a point at Anfield last weekend.
I'm not willing to go quite so far as to back the Club World Cup winners in 90 minutes, but I will take THE DRAW at 3/1.
I'll also back ENZO FERNANDEZ to win MAN OF THE MATCH at 12s.
The Chelsea captain has saved his biggest moments, and performances, for the biggest occasions this season. That may sound like a complement, it very much is not.
He scored a last-gasp equaliser when these sides drew under McFarlane five months ago, grabbed the winner in the semi-final with Leeds and fired in a free-kick against Liverpool last time out.
In his defence, Fernandez thrives in a more attacking role and while tempting to back him to score anytime at 5/1, goals are rare in cup finals. The Argentine is an all-round midfielder well capable of delivering a captain's performance that doesn't involve finding the net.
Man of the Match in the cup final, as he was in the semi, would cap some wonderful narrative too after being banned for two matches by Liam Rosenior earlier this season for saying in an interview that he'd like to play for Real Madrid.
Finally I'll take BERNARDO SILVA TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 7/4.
The Manchester City captain heads into his final week of a nine-year stint at the club and will be determined to end on a high.
He is a large price to make only two fouls as he rarely does so in run-of-the-mill matches, bringing his season's average down to 1.17 per 90 in the league. When it comes to the biggest games, though, the Portugal midfielder rarely holds back.
Bernardo Silva. Masterclass. 👏@ManCity pic.twitter.com/vmNFMyqxEH
— Premier League (@premierleague) April 22, 2026
His three fouls in the Carabao Cup final, two in the FA Cup quarters against Liverpool and one inside 19 minutes against Real Madrid in the Champions League last eight before being sent off are very much in keeping with his consistently aggressive approach in these types of contests - when these sides last met he committed five fouls.
I'll also hedge my bets and take small stakes to him winning MAN OF THE MATCH at 8/1 as well.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Man City
Jake Osgathorpe
Given the way Chelsea have gone about things of late, it's really tough to confidently back anything other than a MANCHESTER CITY WIN. The Blues have won just twice in their last 12 across all competitions, with one of those a 7-0 thrashing of League One side Port Vale.
Chelsea have lost eight of those contests, and on the flip side City are purring at just the right time. Since being knocked out of the Champions League, Pep Guardiola's men have won eight of an unbeaten nine, with six of those successes coming TO NIL and at 9/4 a repeat should be backed.
Not only are City showing defensive solidity - barring a few self-inflicted mishaps against Everton - but Chelsea remain completely toothless in forward areas.
Across their last 10 games against non-lower-league opponents, the Blues have scored just five times, drawing blanks in six of those, and averaging a paltry 1.05 non-penalty xG. Even since Rosenior departed, while they have scored in all three games, there are serious caveats.
In the FA Cup semi-final they mustered just eight shots equating to 0.38 xG, against Forest, while they missed a penalty that never should have been given, they found the net thanks to an overhead kick in the 93rd minute, and against Liverpool they scored from a long-range free-kick and generated a total of 0.50 xG from a measly six shots.
City are a far superior team to that trio, and playing with their current swagger, could win this final quite comfortably - just as they did in the recent league meeting at Stamford Bridge (3-0) and in outclassing Arsenal in the Carabao Cup final.
While I expect Chelsea to go down tamely, there is still value in backing striker JOAO PEDRO TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 5/6. The Brazilian is a handful and has become an expert in winning fouls.
Across his last 20 starts for Chelsea, the Brazilian has been fouled 42 times at an average of 2.34 per 90, and has a track record in the big games. Across that 20-game span he won three fouls in the first meeting with City, 10 in three games against Arsenal, two in the second league meeting with City and three last weekend at Anfield. Not to mention three in the FA Cup semi-final too.
In the two head-to-heads with City, the right centre-back was the man who committed the fouls on him, which makes the 9/4 about ABDUKODIR KHUSANOV TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS appeal.
He's not overly foul prone but has landed this bet in six of his last 18 starts at centre-back, including when making three against Chelsea recently. In the first meeting it was Ruben Dias who started at right centre-back and committed three fouls, so hopefully this is a trend that continues on Saturday.
Score prediction: Chelsea 0-2 Man City
Jimmy The Punt
MARC CUCURELLA played on the left side of midfield against Liverpool in Chelsea’s last game.
Usually he’s a left-back so assuming he gets the nod in midfield at Wembley, it could open up some exciting betting opportunities.
At Anfield, Cucurella had one shot, completed one key pass (pass leading to a shot) committed four fouls and was booked.
That’s the joint-most fouls he has committed in a Premier League game this season.
Teething issues perhaps and at 5/6 his price to commit 2+ fouls on Saturday or the 5/2 for him to be carded could be worth a look. I am going to explore the more attacking markets instead, though.
Even from left-back, Cucurella marauds and racks up the goal contributions. In the league this season, he has a total of five goals and assists to his name at an average of 0.18 per 90; coincidently he is averaging 0.18 expected goals and assists per 90 as well.
At 6/1 his price TO SCORE OR ASSIST is value and that is without considering his potential position change.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-4 Man City
Odds correct at 1600 BST (15/05/26)
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