Football betting tips: Europa League
2.5pts Bruno Fernandes to score or assist at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 15/2
- Bruno Fernandes to score anytime
- Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist
Athletic Club went within a whisker of taking the lead on 18 minutes in the first leg but for Victor Lindelof’s last ditch clearance.
By half time the Spanish side were three goals and a man down and with a trio of key absentees ahead of the trip to Old Trafford, this tie looks all but over.
Oihan Sancet, Inaki Williams and Nico Williams are all ruled out with injuries. The Williams brothers have combined to score 10 of their sides 21 goals in the Europa League and Sancet has netted 17 times this season.
Without them, it is difficult to make a case for the visitors on Thursday and the market agrees.
Manchester United are 1/250 on to reach the final and return to San Mames Stadium with Sky Bet. They did most of the heavy lifting in the Basque Country, albeit they were helped by the man advantage.
DREAMLAND FOR MAN UNITED!
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) May 1, 2025
Bruno Fernandes has scored two goals in seven minutes ⏰
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/6XIag6T0CX
Casemiro netted the opener before two quick-fire Bruno Fernandes goals secured an assertive yet surprising victory.
The Red Devils were 11/4 to win the first leg and became the first side to beat Athletic club on their own patch in Europe.
The prices, dynamic of the clash and visitors' injury issues make this return leg a tricky one to call but there's no escaping Ruben Amorim’s side's impressive continental form.
United remain unbeaten in the Europa League and have won seven of their nine games since Amorim took charge.
What are the best bets?
Contrary as it may be, getting this Manchester United team onside at odds on in a game they don’t need to win doesn’t appeal, but backing their creator-in-chief to have a hand in a goal is much more palatable at the prices available.
BRUNO FERNANDES has SCORED OR ASSISTED 35 goals in all competitions this season, and can add another to that tally here.
In this competition, he has 10 goal contributions in 12 appearances, that is a G+A per 90 average of 0.82, and based on that alone this price is simply too big.
The Portuguese playmaker's attacking output is hardly surprising considering he is averaging 3.3 shots and 3.2 key passes (passes leading to shots) per game. This form definitely is not a blip.
Per Fbref, across 540 club appearances, his G+A per 90 average is 0.64.
Team news
The hosts will be without Diogo Dalot, Lisandro Martinez and Joshua Zirkzee.
Matthijs de Ligt was forced off with a muscle injury against Brentford. Although he will be given every chance, Harry Maguire could start in the middle of a back three with Lindelof and Leni Yoro.
This game might come too soon for Amad Diallo to start. He may continue from the bench as he builds up fitness with Amorim opting for the more pragmatic Noussair Mazraoui.
Athletic Club have left Inaki Williams and Nico Williams at home due to with injuries.
Alvaro Djalo and Alex Berenguer could feature on the flanks in their absence. Top scorer Sancet is ruled out once again after missing the first leg and centre back Dani Vivian is suspended.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United: Onana; Lindelof, Maguire, Yoro; Mazraoui, Ugarte, Casemiro, Dorgu; Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund
Athletic Club: Agirrezabala; De Marcos, Paredes, Alvarez, Berchiche; De Galarreta, Jauregizar; Djalo, Berenguer, Berenguer; Sannadi
Match facts
- In all major European competitions, only one side has ever won the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie away from home by 3+ goals and failed to progress, with Maccabi Tel Aviv doing so against Olympiakos in the 2023-24 UEFA Conference League last 16 (4-1 away win, 6-1 home defeat after extra-time).
- In the five previous matches between Manchester United and Athletic Club, there have been 22 goals (4.4 per game), with the Red Devils scoring 12 and conceding 10. All five of those matches have seen at least three goals scored.
- Athletic Club have lost seven of their nine previous away games against English sides in all European competitions (W1 D1), although their most recent was a 3-2 win over Manchester United in March 2012 in the UEFA Europa League.
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their 13 UEFA Europa League games this season (W8 D5), and could become only the seventh side to reach the competition’s final without losing a match en route, after Benfica (2013-14), Chelsea (2018-19), Internazionale (2019-20), Villarreal (2020-21), Eintracht Frankfurt (2021-22), and Bayer Leverkusen (2023-24).
- After losing the first leg 3-0 at home, Athletic Club could lose both their home and away leg of a knockout tie in major European competition for only the third time, after the 1967-68 Inter-Cities Fairs Cup quarter-final against Ferencvárosi TC, and the 2017-18 UEFA Europa League last 16 against Marseille.
- Manchester United have lost just one of their last 30 home games in the UEFA Europa League (W23 D6), a 0-1 group stage defeat to Real Sociedad in September 2022. Indeed, they must lose by at least three goals in order to not progress from this tie – the Red Devils have never in their history lost a home game in any European competition by a margin of 3+ goals.
- Athletic Club have forced more shot-ending high turnovers than any other side in the UEFA Europa League this season (26), while Manchester United rank second for this (23).
- Manchester United have scored 31 goals in this season’s UEFA Europa League – more than any other side. Only in 2002-03 (32) and 2020-21 (34) have they ever scored more in a single campaign in major European competition.
- Iñaki Williams has scored four of Athletic Club’s seven away goals in his season’s UEFA Europa League (57%). The only player to score more away goals in a single campaign in major European competition for the club is Aritz Aduriz, who has done so twice, both in the UEFA Europa League (6 in 2015-16, 5 in 2017-18).
- Ruben Amorim is looking to become the first manager to reach a major European final in his first season in charge of an English club since Thomas Tuchel with Chelsea in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League. Only one Manchester United manager has ever achieved this feat in his debut season, with José Mourinho doing so in the 2016-17 UEFA Europa League.
Odds correct at 1145 BST (07/05/25)
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