Football betting tips: Europa League
Joe Townsend
2.5pts Aston Villa to win and under 4.5 goals at 10/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Aston Villa to win to nil at 7/4 (William Hill)
1pt Ollie Watkins to score anytime at 8/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Tom Carnduff
1.75pts Matthias Ginter 1+ total shots at 6/5 (BetVictor)
0.75pt Matthias Ginter to score anytime at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
Joe Townsend
Unai Emery has transformed Aston Villa since taking over a club battling against Premier League relegation midway through 2022/23; how fitting it would be for the Europa League's most successful manager to end Villa's 30-year trophy with his fifth UEL triumph.
His team are huge favourites, with no firm going bigger than 1/3 for them to lift the trophy.
It should come as little surprise given Villa will finish either fourth or fifth in Europe's strongest domestic division while Freiburg finished way off the pace in Germany's Bundesliga - seventh but 15 points adrift of the Champions League places and 18 clear of the relegation play-off spot.
Making a case for the upset is hard, especially when Emery's men arrive in Istanbul having thumped Liverpool on Friday night to confirm their return to Europe's top table regardless of Wednesday night's outcome, but these finals (like most) are rarely thrilling.
Only one - Atalanta's surprise 3-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen - of the last five have involved over 2.5 goals.
Four of the last six winners in 90 minutes have done so while keeping a clean sheet, which makes the 7/4 about ASTON VILLA WIN TO NIL an obvious bet given the bump we get from the 4/6 they are for a straight win.
It might feel overly safe but VILLA TO WIN & UNDER 4.5 GOALS also looks generously priced at 10/11, covering all manner of scorelines.
The likelihood of Emery adding to the titles he won in 2014, 2015 and 2016 (all with Sevilla) and 2021 (with Villarreal) have been helped by the return to form of several of his key men.
OLLIE WATKINS is 8/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME and we should back him to do so.
Having taken 45 appearances to score his first 10 goals of the season the Villa striker has added the next 10 in just 11 matches. Watkins has been especially prolific in the Europa League, scoring in four of his last six appearances in the competition, finding the net five times in total.
It's tempting to back him in the Man of the Match market but with so many Villa players playing so well at the moment, Morgan Rogers, Emi Buendia, Youri Tielemans and John McGinn in particular, it's too much of a shot in the dark when all are priced in single figures.
Tom Carnduff
Consistency has plagued Freiburg's league season. The longest winning run they could put together was two, that happening on three occasions, with a five-game run through September and into October the best unbeaten streak.
Perhaps though, they have demonstrated their ability to be a solid cup side under Julian Schuster's guidance. A place in the Europa League being one example of this, while they also reached the semi-finals of the German Cup.
A significant issue for them here is their showings away from the Europa-Park Stadion. Freiburg finished the Bundesliga campaign with just 15 points from a possible 51 (a return rate of 29.4%) on the road and their three defeats in this competition all came in away matches.
This season's Freiburg are a side which doesn't stand out in any particular way. They're passive, fail to stand out with creativity in open play and ultimately finished 12 points adrift from the top six in Germany's top-flight.
They do, however, possess a threat at attacking set-pieces, and while they don't regularly go high on the corner count, it's a potential route to success if they are to get something from the contest.
Only Union Berlin finished the season with a higher expected goals (xG) tally created from attacking set-pieces. On a per match basis, it averaged out at a significant 0.49.
Villa are pretty average when it comes to defending corners and free-kicks and we can't quite place them in the vulnerable category, but they do still possess the lowest aerial duels won rate in the Premier League.
I'd expect Freiburg to look towards MATTHIAS GINTER, with some bookmakers going even money and above on 1+ TOTAL SHOTS - this doesn't have to be on target.
I wouldn't really be going lower than say 5/6 on this pick just with Freiburg's low corners approach in mind but yet that may well get cancelled out by game state anyway.
Eight of Ginter's 14 outings in this competition have returned at least a shot, with the same coming in 14 of his 32 Bundesliga contests.
He's netted five times this season with the 20/1 that he's an ANYTIME GOALSCORER again here also worth a play. Anything around 14/1 and above seems fair enough too.
Villa have conceded 14 goals from set-pieces in the Premier League with another two in Europe. They'll be the better side across the 90 minutes but Freiburg could capitalise from a dead ball situation.
Score prediction: Freiburg 1-2 Aston Villa
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (18/05/26)
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