Euro 2020 betting tips: Portugal v Germany best bets and preview
After defeat against France, Germany really need a result against Portugal on Saturday. Mark O'Haire is on hand to preview the Group F clash.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Portugal v Germany
1pt Draw and Under 2.5 Goals at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Bruno Fernandes to score from outside the area at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
The opening week of Euro 2020 chucked up plenty of discussion points, with the topic of home advantage coming under particular scrutiny.
Eight of the nine nations to host first round group games saw strong market support leading up to kick-off - Hungary’s contest with defending champions Portugal the only clash not to follow the early betting trends.
Portugal’s price remained relatively unmoved – Fernando Santos’ side were already hot favourites to succeed in front of a capacity crowd in Budapest, especially so with Hungary’s standout star Dominik Szoboszlai unavailable through injury for the host nation.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: ITV
Venue: Allianz Arena - Munich, Germany
Portugal 11/5 | Draw 23/10 | Germany 5/4
Later on that evening, the market bounced back to familiar form with Germany attracting strong support ahead of their match-up with world champions France in Munich.
Die Mannschaft surprisingly went off as favourites on Tuesday evening, provoking many to ponder whether the money was overvaluing the benefit of home advantage.
That conundrum will rear its head again on Saturday evening as Germany return to the Allianz Arena to face Portugal.
Germany in tough spot
The disappointing 1-0 reverse to France has put Joachim Low’s side in a difficult position; four points in the group should be enough to secure a route into the last 16, and with Hungary to come after, Germany will still feel that’s plausible.
Therefore, picking up at least a point against an obdurate and organised Portugal outfit becomes imperative for Die Mannschaft.
However, Germany toiled in the final-third against France despite enjoying envious amounts of territory and possession, and so it’s difficult to see enough reasoning to support the hosts at skinny 5/4 (Sky Bet) jollies.
The odds suggest Germany boast a 44% chance of success, with an overvaluation of home advantage, plus the desperation and necessity of earning points, playing a part in producing an artificially short offering on the hosts. It’s a quote I’m happy to oppose.
Portugal monopolised possession but were forced to work hard to defeat Hungary in their curtain-raiser, breaking the deadlock with a fortunate deflected effort late on.
Nevertheless, the 3-0 success puts the Iberians in an enviable position in the pool, with a share of the spoils here all but guaranteeing knockout football for the Iberians.
Draw the way to go
Santos’ side are masters in navigating testing waters, suffering only four competitive defeats in 57 matches since the wily veteran took charge in September 2014, and could therefore adopt a pragmatic approach here considering the permutations.
Consequently, a mutually acceptable draw wouldn’t be the worst outcome for either pre-match.
By adding Under 2.5 Goals into the mix – effectively supporting the 0-0 and 1-1 correct scores – gives us an appetising 10/3 (SkyBet) shout to support.
https://m.skybet.com/football/euro-2020/event/27462388/bet?sels=854454549&aff=688&dcmp=SL_ED_FOOTBALL_PORvGER_JUN19
Fernandes worth a punt
Elsewhere, Bruno Fernandes will expect to enjoy a bit more freedom here as opposed to a low block defensive wall that was employed by Hungary.
The Manchester United man went close with a long-range strike and could well be worth chancing at 20/1 with Sky Bet’s enhanced price to score from outside the penalty box.
Across all competitions this term, Fernandes has averaged 1.90 of his 3.10 attempts per-game from outside the area. The 26-year-old is also a leading contender on free-kick duties alongside Cristiano Ronaldo and is well capable of landing of making the goalkeeper work from distance.
Considering just 8/11 quotes are available for Bruno to land at least one on-target effort from outside the box, 20/1 quotes look a little on the large side to convert.
Portugal v Germany best bets and score prediction
- 1pts on the Draw and Under 2.5 Goals at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts on Bruno Fernandes to score from outside the area at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Portugal 1-1 Germany (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1400 BST (17/06/21)
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