Euro 2020 betting tips: France v Germany best bets and preview
Mark O'Haire has a preview and best bet for arguably the standout game of the opening round of fixtures at Euro 2020, as France take on Germany.
Euro 2020 betting tips: France v Germany
1pt Both Teams To Score and Under 3.5 Goals at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
The opening round of group games at major tournaments tend to be the tightest and the European Championship is no exception. Since the start of Euro 96, a huge 66% of first round group games have produced Under 2.5 Goals with just 2.15 goals per-game on average.
At Euro 2016, that average dropped to 1.83 with 83% of fixtures going Under 2.5.
However, Tuesday night’s tussle in Munich between pre-tournament favourites France and host nation Germany has the potential to exceed those expectations with Both Teams To Score (20/23 Betfair/Paddy Power) particularly standing out from a punting persuasion.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: ITV
Venue: Allianz Arena - Munich, Germany
Home 8/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 9/5
Of course, with the two nations housed in the ‘Group of Death’ there could be an acceptance of sharing the spoils, yet dig a little deeper and we can see enough evidence to believe the outstanding array of attacking excellence, coupled with a few niggling defensive concerns, could come together to concoct an entertaining encounter.
World champions France have strengthened their squad with the addition of Karim Benzema and also arguably upgraded at centre-back with the emergence of Presnel Kimpembe. Should Benzema miss out after collecting a minor injury last week, Olivier Giroud will lead the line, an approach that’s previously served Didier Deschamps very well.
Chuck Antoine Griezmann and Kylian Mbappe into the mix and Les Blues boast a fearsome front three, capable of causing top-level defences nightmares. France have scored in 17 of their past 19 competitive fixtures and up against top sides Argentina, Belgium, Croatia, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal and Uruguay, they’re W12-D3-L1 since July 2016.
Deschamps’ does prefer pragmatism over style and swagger but Germany’s own approach should lend itself to a more watchable affair on Tuesday evening compared to standard group curtain-raisers.
Die Mannschaft have endured a tumultuous three years since an embarrassing early exit in Russia with Joachim Low’s dithering over defensive set-ups causing particular angst back home. Dodgy backline displays, error-strewn outings and systematic errors have proven commonplace with flittering’s between a three and four-man defence still determined.
The lack of clarity make Germany difficult to trust and Leon Goretzka’s expected absence is a blow to the hosts here. Nevertheless, the three-time winners can call upon a galaxy of exceptional offensive talent with the returning Thomas Muller set to start alongside Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane in an exciting all-Bayern Munich attacking trident.
Low’s outfit provided plenty of problems for a solid Denmark side in a recent warm-up friendly and will be encouraged by their goalscoring record on home soil too. Germany have notched in all competitive games as hosts since 2007 bar a recent Nations League match-up with France where Die Mannschaft generated a decent 1.43 Expected Goals (xG).
That 1.43 xG output wasn’t a major outlier, either. France haven’t appeared as watertight as we might anticipate since taking world title honours, often leaking against elite opposition.
Les Blues have played 13 competitive games against Croatia, Sweden, Ukraine, Turkey, Portugal, Netherlands and Germany in the past three years, averaging 1.21 xG against, and keeping only four shutouts. So I’m happy to swim against the tide and support BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE whilst also adding UNDER 3.5 GOALS into the mix – a 2/1 (Sky Bet) shot.
We’re effectively backing the 1-1 correct score, or a 2-1 triumph on either side, three of the first six outcomes at the top of the pre-game Correct Score market. Considering only 13% of opening group games have produced four goals or more since the Euros moved to a minimum 16-team tournament, there’s enough encouragement to combine the pair of plays at the odds on offer.
France v Germany best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams To Score and Under 3.5 Goals at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: France 1-1 Germany (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1240 BST (13/06/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
